Young people and Cancer

[TLS Guy]

Will this do? http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/fallout-from-nuclear-weapons-tests-and-cancer-risks/6

"Investigators at the University of Utah estimated radiation doses to the bone marrow for 6,507 leukemia cases and matched controls who were residents of Utah. Average doses were about 0.003 Gy with a maximum of about 0.03 Gy. Subsequently, thyroid doses were estimated to members of a cohort exposed as school children in southwestern Utah and who are part of a long-term epidemiology study. The mean thyroid dose was estimated to be 0.12 Gy, with a maximum of 1.4 Gy. Among children who did not drink milk, the mean thyroid dose was on the order of 0.01 Gy.

In response to Public Law 97-414 (enacted in 1993), the U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI) estimated the absorbed dose to the thyroid from I-131 in NTS fallout for representative individuals in every county of the contiguous United States. Calculations emphasized the pasture-cow-milk-man food chain, but also included inhalation of fallout and ingestion of other foods. Deposition of I-131 across the United States was reconstructed for every significant event at the NTS using historical measurements of fallout from a nationwide network of monitoring stations operational between 1951 and 1958. Thyroid doses were estimated as a function of age at exposure, region of the country and dietary habits. For example, for a female born in St. George, Utah, in 1951 and residing there until 1971, the thyroid doses are estimated to have been about 0.3 Gy if she had consumed commercial cow's milk, 2 Gy if she had consumed goat's milk, and 0.04 Gy if she had not consumed milk. For a female born in Los Angeles, California, at the same time, the corresponding values would have been 0.003, 0.01, and 0.0004 Gy. (A link to these data is available in the bibliography.)

Following the publication of the NCI findings in 1997, the U.S. Congress requested that the Department of Health and Human Services extend the study to other radionuclides in fallout and to consider tests outside the U.S. that could have resulted in substantial radiation exposures to the American people. Examples of results extracted from the report (a link is available in the bibliography) are shown in Figures 7 through 9 and 11. Figure 7 shows the pattern of deposition of cesium-137 (Cs-137), a radionuclide traditionally used for reference, resulting from all NTS tests in the entire United States. Fallout decreased with distance from the NTS along the prevailing wind direction, which was from west to east. Very little fallout was observed along the Pacific coast, which was usually upwind from the NTS. Estimated bone-marrow and thyroid doses are illustrated in Figure 8. The fact that both external and internal doses were roughly proportional to the deposition density is reflected in similarities between the two figures. Estimates of average thyroid and of bone-marrow doses for the entire U.S. population are presented in Figure 11; the thyroid doses from I-131 are much higher than the internal doses from any other radionuclide and also much higher than the doses from external exposure."

That is good and useful data. However they are using models to predict cancer incidence which is useful to a point. The authors, however, lament the lack of sufficient and adequate population based studies, and that is the point I'm trying to make. Epidemiological studies are hard work and expensive.

 

[Tomorrow]

There may have been payouts, however I don't think there is data proving cause and effect in most cases. In fact the low cancer rate for Arizona speaks against it.

The U.S. Gov't. doesn't pay out $1.3 billion because they're not culpable or that the prima facie case wasn't proven. As I said, the debate has long since ended...there is no longer question. If you'll look at the data I provided, you'll see tremendous increases in radiation induced cancer rates downwind from the Federal Nuclear Testing Site in Nevada in the closing decades of the 20th century.

There may be a current, normalized reported incidence of cancer in the entire state of AZ, but that is not what I have been talking about.

EDIT: Wish I could find the $$&$%(&$% original filings documents. Grrrr....

 

[fredk]

Death at a young age is a very sad thing. When I was younger, one of our neighbours lost their 16 year old daughter in an unusual car accident.

The steering failed and the truck her 18yo brother was driving rolled into the ditch. She fell out the window and was crushed (in the '70s you didn't wear your seatbelt to go a mile between farms unfortunately).

It destroyed the family. Rod blamed himself for her death, though there was nothing he did wrong as a driver. Very very sad.

You need to stop smoking in all public places including bars if you haven't already.

I for one am happy to live in a country where the government has had the balls to ban smoking in public spaces. I have spent too much time in public places choking on others smoke and am happy not to have to go through that any more.

The discussion up here these days is if people should be banned from smoking in the presence of children, regardless of where they are.