My Thoughts
I find it interesting that this format war is compared to SACD and DVD-A. While the comparison can be justified there is a couple of major points left out. First lets talk about HDTV. Oh yeah there is some deadline coming in 2009. I realize this has nothing to do with HD or Blu-ray, but this has a lot of people out shopping for new HDTVs. Well when they get their new flat panel home, most people are not happy with the amount of HD programming available. So this is one reason once prices fall that people will buy into these new formats.
Secondly, SACD and DVD-A were poorly marketed and came at a time where napster offered free music in a format where you can put several hundred songs on a single CD. Then came along the iPod and hundreds of other portable devices. While there are a few of us that like to sit at home and listen to music on our stereo, most people like to take their music with them. Also, you could never find a SACD or DVD-A at stores like walmart or target, unless it was a SACD hybrid.
So that leaves us with HD DVD and Blu-ray. Will both formats survive? Probably not, but it does give consumers and home theater people like us an excellent picture and improved sound. I also think that DVDs taught us that people like to have movies at their fingertips, not from a download. While downloading HD movies will probably be very popular in the future, I think we are still aways off.
Well to answer the question Blu-ray or HD DVD? I am picking Blu-ray, there are far more blu-ray movies available, especially ones that I want to watch. HD DVD simply does not have enough content to survive at this point regardless of how cheap you can buy a player.