TV Over Broadband (IPTV) Revenue to Top $17B by 2010

[Audioholics]

<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2>IPTV, or the distribution of a television service over broadband access lines, will take a turn towards full commercial deployment in 2005. The 2004 launch of services such as Maligne TV and CanalSat DSL in France, FastWeb in Italy, and the announced 2005 </FONT><A href="http://news.com.com/BellSouth+begins+Microsoft+IPTV+trials/2100-1034_3-5515950.html?tag=nefd.top" target=_blank><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2>TV-over-DSL launch by BellSouth</FONT></A><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2>, SBC and Verizon in the United States have propelled this new technology onto the front page of industry attention. <EM>The Business of IPTV: Global Analysis &amp; Forecasts,</EM> a new study from TDG Research, suggests that the majority of global IPTV growth will be fueled by hybrid deployments that combine digital satellite or terrestrial TV services with IP-based TelcoTV offerings. Obviously, content and avilability will fuel this push for IPTV, but it's good to know that competition is coming and that current providers will have to stay on their toes to keep their customers.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2>[Read the News Release]</FONT></P>

 

[hopjohn]

As a person involved in broadcasting as a career, I would guess this is certainly the future of television. I can't say how long it will take, but "If you can advertise on it, they will come"

 

[Rob Babcock]

How long will conventional advertising drive TV? I virtually never watch a tv commercial. 95% of my viewing is done from DVDs from a PC based PVR or a VCR for stuff that's of lesser importance. I know a lot of guys with PVRs who haven't seen an ad in almost 2 years.

The only ads I see? Ads during sports. I rarely time shift sports, but I only watch pro football, March Madness, and the NBA finals (if a team I like is playing). Yeah, I know...I'm not a very good fan of the latter two, since I never watch til the playoffs/championships. Since I rarely miss a snap during football season, I'll sometimes watch the beer ads. Hell, sometimes they're better than the game (always, if you're a packers fan! ).

I take it most people don't use VCRs or PVRs for all their viewing, or the networks would be bankrupt already. But isn't their use just going to accelerate as the technology becomes more prevalent? You can get a PVR almost free already...

 

[hopjohn]

Rob I would agree with you about the commercial viewing to a certain extint as it exists today. If you'll harken back to the late 70's with me for a moment you may recall that when VCRs first became available, the movie industry was in an uproar and so much so that many people may have overlooked what the networks were saying about the VCR. They hated the idea just as much because they didn't want you to miss those commercials, and were certainly a contingent against the fair use laws that came about in that era.

My point being that there has been a buildup of distain from the networks point of view toward certain fast forwarding technologies. In fact there were Tivos developed to skip passed commercials that were then suddenly changed in future models to no longer allow you to make those 30 second jumps, and instead forced you to skip ahead using manual fast forward only. Replay rebelled, but they are also on the outs, and probably won't get the support and partneship with directv and dish network etc. to integrate their software into these types of products.

So with that in mind I wouldn't be surprised if future technology made it more difficult to skip forward and basically force you to wait through them or be subject to them in one way or another. Networks hate PVRs, there's even been huge studies to try and determine how much revenue has been lost by their gaining popularity. The've even gone so far as to threaten to revert back to the 50's by using heavy product placement in the shows themselves. Even story lines based around products are being considered, like FedEx was in Cast Away for example. Also new technologies are being tested for advertising at the base and edges of the screen during shows. They are going to force their hand, it's just a question of how. With IPTV, things will be primarily becoming on-demand so everything would be prerecoded and would allow the for advertising to put in their ads before the program you want to view with no way of speeding through it, just as they do with real network, and other yahoo videos and things today.

Money is power and the networks have plenty of both. They are going to ensure advertisers that the medium is still the best there is out there, and will come up with some pretty creative ways to push products if need be.

 

[Rob Babcock]

Yeah, I read that in future TiVo's there'll be an ad crawl on the bottom while you FF thru stuff. I have neither a tivo nor a Replay, but I thought Replay woulda been the way to go.

As far as I care, the networks can screw themselves. I pay to watch network TV already, since I have cable and it costs like $75 per mo. So naturally I don't buy into their arguement that I'm "obligated" to watch them (yes, some network jackass actually said viewers have an unspoke 'contractual obligation' to watch the ads in exchange for the content; he said an occasional bathroom break is undertstandable - what a guy). Why is it not enough to pay for the shows once? I think the writing is on the wall for the rickety old Network paradigm.

Soooooo, what happens when no one watches commercials? Well, no one will advertise any more on TV, or they'll have to make catchy ads that we want to watch (a la beer ads). Perhaps product placements. Or perhaps all tv will go to the showtime/hbo subscription model or PPV. Or maybe it'll go away. Okay, not likely, but the broadcasters will have to find some way to make money. Studies have shown for years that most TV ads have either no impact or a negative impact consumers.

Anyway, I'll continue to skip the commercials. If that means the networks tank and all my favorite shows get cancelled, so be it. I don't watch that much tv anyway.

 

[zipper]

As Verizon/SBC advances on its FTTP program they'll have the ultimate one-stop shop. It will,however, take years of running FO's & even then I'm sure they'll not cover every inch of their territory. So, unless you live in a metro area, it will be a while before you'll have it available along with the 5-30 meg BB service.........

Unfortunately for the CBTV companies, if they want to keep up they'll also have to move to fiber...........costly.............