Trade Wars

[Mr._Clark]

The reporting by various news websites right now is somewhat interesting. The lead on most is the stock market crash.

https://www.reuters.com/

https://www.apnews.com/

https://www.cnn.com/

The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos

Live news, investigations, opinion, photos and video by the journalists of The New York Times from more than 150 countries around the world. Subscribe for coverage of U.S. and international news, politics, business, technology, science, health, arts, sports and more.

www.nytimes.com

But, over on Foxnews.com, Trump is crossing the aisle and taking a victory lap with democrats:

Fox News - Breaking News Updates | Latest News Headlines | Photos & News Video

Breaking News, Latest News and Current News from FOXNews.com. Breaking news and video. Latest Current News: U.S., World, Entertainment, Health, Business, Technology, Politics, Sports.

www.foxnews.com

Granted, foxbusiness is running a story on the stock market, but it's effectively buried

Stocks tumble after Trump’s tariffs roil global markets: Live Updates

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply after Trump slapped tariffs on a host of countries including China, Vietnam, Taiwan, while also blasting the European Union. FOX Business is providing real-time updates on the markets, commodities and all the most active stocks on the move.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[mtrycrafts]

Afraid Putin will escalate war and/or does business within Russia?

Maybe he wants to do business with them, or his kids want to, now or in near future.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Maybe he wants to do business with them, or his kids want to, now or in near future.

I can't help but wonder if Trump is attempting to weaken Europe relative to Russia.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I can't help but wonder if Trump is attempting to weaken Europe relative to Russia.

Yes, a real possibility indeed.

 

[j_garcia]

And that is why the price of gold soared and will no doubt continue to climb. Trumphole thinks he knows what he is doing, but the companies and people he is trying to "save" with those manufacturing jobs are going to go bankrupt LONG before those jobs and factories appear.

 

[dlaloum]

Afraid Putin will escalate war and/or does business within Russia?

Trump has a long history of doing business with Russia (or rather, Russian Oligarchs) - wouldn't want to harm the goose with the golden eggs.... of course that is his personal business, but figuring out how much he cares beyond his personal business is always a frought and difficult endeavour.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I can't help but wonder if Trump is attempting to weaken Europe relative to Russia.

I doubt that this would be a primary goal, but may be considered a bonus consequence.

 

[Cos]

Sorry Trump is a Moron. Time to buy electronics is now LOL, they are going to be 34% higher soon lol

 

[Verdinut]

Sorry Trump is a Moron. Time to buy electronics is now LOL, they are going to be 34% higher soon lol

It's rather a 54% tariff because the 34% is added to the first 20% tariff for Chinese products.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Trump has a long history of doing business with Russia (or rather, Russian Oligarchs) - wouldn't want to harm the goose with the golden eggs.... of course that is his personal business, but figuring out how much he cares beyond his personal business is always a frought and difficult endeavour.

Someone made the comment that in a Trump Hotel you can find a lot of gold. Russian oligarchs like that.

 

[Dude#1279435]

I can't help but wonder if Trump is attempting to weaken Europe relative to Russia.

Maybe resentment with Zelensky/Biden from Trump's first impeachment.

 

[Dude#1279435]

What TYT believes the reasoning is....

1. Trump loves tariffs and believes we can eliminate the income tax with them.
2. There have been no consequences in the past for his tariffs.
3. This is all an excuse to cut taxes by trillions for corporations and the wealthy.

The video at the end has a handful of examples Trump stating basically America's golden era was 1789-1913.

 

[j_garcia]

He can cut taxes, but it won't stop the bleeding. It will help corporations and the rich and hurt everyone else. Exactly what the billionaire bros wanted and why they backed him.

What they are REALLY doing is, crashing it so those bros can reinvest and then they will pull it back a bit and make even more money.

China just imposed a 34% tariff on US products.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The markets continue to crash.

Live Updates: Trump Tariffs and Inflation Concerns Spark Stock Market Turmoil

Markets reeled from worries about the trade war, overshadowing some good news about the U.S. labor market. President Trump insisted that his policies were working.

www.nytimes.com

And Trump says he's not budging:

>>>Trump tells investors coming to US: "My policies will never change"
From CNN’s Kit Maher
President Donald Trump is telling investors coming to the United States that his “policies will never change,” after announcing sweeping tariffs that have sent the stock market into a tailspin.

This is a signal from Trump that he is standing firm in his 10% baseline tariffs on imports from all countries, with higher tariffs on 60 countries that have a high trade deficit with the United States.<<<

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-news-04-04-25#cm92rd4ao00153b5wnynp27zs

What a nightmare. Congress sits on its hands while Trump drives the country off a cliff.

 

[Mr._Clark]

JP Morgan is now estimating there's a 60% chance of a recession.

>>>JPMorgan’s economics team has just raised their recession probability to 60% following the aggressive tariff stance announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a note entitled, “there will be blood,” chief economist Bruce Kasman and his team said this year’s 22-percentage tariff increase amounts to the largest tax hike since 1968.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions. The shock is likely to be only modestly dampened by the flexibility tariff hikes afford for further fiscal policy easing,” they say.<<<

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgan-now-says-theres-a-60-chance-of-a-recession-after-tariff-hikes-a130b3e8

They are also predicting slower economic growth:

>>>Using an International Monetary Fund model of a U.S. 20% tariff hike as well as retaliation from China and Europe, the researchers say it will reduce U.S. gross domestic product by about 2 percentage points and global GDP by 1 point.<<<

Again, what a nightmare.

 

[Mr._Clark]

And, so far, China seems to be doing better than the U.S. since Trump was elected:

The Trump slump has handed China a golden opportunity

Western investors are looking beyond the US as the Maga playbook rattles stock markets

www.telegraph.co.uk

"MCGA"? ("Making China Great Again")

 

[highfigh]

This is a good example (image taken from https://forests.org/so-how-much-forest-is-there-in-the-us-and-canada/). Trump says the U.S. does not need Canadian lumber. I beg to differ. Construction lumber comes from coniferous forests. In addition, those trees grow more slowly in Canada due to the northern climate. That makes the growth rings form closer together making the wood stronger. American builders prefer Canadian lumber for a good reason. It's a better product and chanting MAGA won't change how the trees grow.

Trump says that he will promote wood harvesting in the U.S. Where is most of that wood? It's in your national parks! He's already dismantling the EPA and forestry service. It's only a matter of time before the feds issue permits for remote regions in your national forests, and mining permits won't be far behind. There are plenty of documentaries about mining companies wanting to go after ore in environmentally sensitive areas.

View attachment 73008

I've seen documentaries about the previous century when politicians realized the importance of having these fabulous wilderness areas available to the public and how the national parks were established. Once you permit clear-cutting and mining in these regions, the damage will be done. Canadians have had their share of protests to protect similar regions with a fair bit of success. I wonder if we'll see the same thing transpire in the U.S. in the near future.

IF they only cut fire breaks and sections that aren't contiguous, they'll be able to prevent huge wildfires and in the cut areas, new trees can be planted, to keep the forests growing. If they mix species, it will be best so blights won't decimate the new crop. The waste due to wildfires is criminal,. IMO.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Guy claims to have figured out what formula they used to calculate the tariff rates. Funny thing is if the guy's right than it looks pretty gal darn lazy. The way I understand it they should be strategic tariffs, but instead it looks like blanket tariffs. Some countries have a trade deficit with us so who knows what Trump is thinking.

Did an LLM help write Trump’s trade plan?

Probably yes

garymarcus.substack.com

 

[highfigh]

More trillions in retirement savings are being lost.

>>>Most Americans' retirement savings, including 401(K)s, are tied to stock market performance. They are invested in shares and funds that track the major indices.

One that tracks the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent in after-hours trading, while one that is tied to the Nasdaq-100 fund dropped 3.3 percent. A fund that follows the Dow Jones slipped 1 percent.<<<

Wall Street stocks drop like a stone

America's flagship S&P 500 plunged two per cent in minutes today - the kind of fall not seen since the start of the Covid pandemic.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Meanwhile, other than a handful of Senators voting on a resolution specific to Canadian tariffs, the GOP congressmen/women are sitting on their hands and watching the crash.

>>>Senate Republicans are bracing for the passage of a bipartisan bill to undo President Trump’s 25-percent tariff against Canada, which would deal Trump an embarrassing setback on “Liberation Day,” an occasion the president has proclaimed to announce a new round of tariffs.

Four Republicans — Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.), Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) — have indicated publicly or privately that they would vote for the resolution, according to Senate Democrats.<<<

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5228359-senate-republicans-trump-tariff-bill/

I don't know how many times I have been told that nothing is lost unless someone sells, aside from value for whatever period lasts until the price returns. If someone makes 20% in a year but the value drops by 10% at the end of that year, they still make 10%. Also, most retirement funds aren't tied to the market on a 1:1 ratio because they're diversified.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Guy claims to have figured out what formula they used to calculate the tariff rates. Funny thing is if the guy's right than it looks pretty gal darn lazy. The way I understand it they should be strategic tariffs, but instead it looks like blanket tariffs. Some countries have a trade deficit with us so who knows what Trump is thinking.

Did an LLM help write Trump’s trade plan?

Probably yes

garymarcus.substack.com

View attachment 73076

Yeah, the white house posted the formula for the "reciprocal" tariffs.

>>>To conceptualize reciprocal tariffs, the tariff rates that would drive bilateral trade deficits to zero were computed.<<<

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent...

ustr.gov

>>>. . . there are actually two parameters: φ and ε, representing the pass-through of tariffs to domestic prices and the elasticity of demand for imports, respectively, but with values of ¼ and 4, respectively, these parameters happen to cancel out perfectly. . . . More importantly, this is an equivocation: the foreign “tariff rates” are invented numbers derived from no explicit policies, based on the dubious theoretical assumption that unspecified but retaliation-worthy factors conspired to “prevent trade from balancing.” The US responses are actual tariffs. <<<

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade

If you tax trade, you get less of it—both imports and exports alike. Even a less-flawed version of Trump’s tariff plan would be unlikely to achieve its goals.

taxfoundation.org

As far as I can tell, for purposes of "reciprocal" tariffs the administration assumes a zero trade deficit is optimal.

In contrast, the 10% universal tariff apparently assumes that all tariffs are always a good thing, regardless of whether or not the U.S. has a trade deficit with any given country.

>>>For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.<<<

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o

The tariff formula includes trade deficits for goods, but not services. This is an antiquated view that assumes there is something magic about goods.