Okay, what if both can be bought at $100 each? Could they co-exist then?
I heard someone say that you can't compare this to XBox vs. PS3, but I forgot the reason. If these two can co-exist at $400/$500 each, why not blu-ray/hd dvd at $100 each?
I don't think so. When players reach that price point, and it will happen, then you are left with CE manufacturers and studios who will be driving the market.
Consumers, right now, are really buying HD DVD and almost universally, the reason is 'price'. When the price is nearly the same, then Blu-ray is setting itself up with
the names in consumer electronics - Panny, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, Denon, Marantz, Pioneer, etc. Perhaps the cheap Chinese players can swing things more towards HD DVD, but more likely, there will be a price point where Blu-ray really takes off with the CE support currently lined up.
Then studios have to decide: Do they master videos for HD DVD at 30GB and lower bandwidth and only 15-25% of the market (or so) or do they master for 50GB, higher bandwidth, and far more of the market?
Will stores and retailers want to stock two HD versions at that point if they realize 5 times the sales with one format? If they use their shelf space for more of the one format, they may realize more sales, and profit, by doing so.
I have no doubt, online is really helping HD DVD to exist right now as Toshiba almost gets the same amount of online coverage as all the supporting Blu-ray companies out there. This flies in the face of the retailers who seem to have about 4 times as many Blu-ray players showing on their floors and are pushing Blu-ray far more at that level.
There are three outcomes: They coexist, HD DVD goes away, they both go away. There is no possibility, that I can see at this point, in which HD DVD survives and Blu-ray does not.