My take on both technologies: They both are very capable of doing everythine we want them to, how we want them to. I would love to add one of these formats to my HT...once I get the cash for a better TV, so I can see the advantages (I'm still running a standard CRT Television).
MS adopting HD-DVD WILL make a difference. Thing is, once HD-DVD-R drives start coming out, they will more than likely update "windows movie maker" (an applet that helps you make movies from your camcorders). That right there will place HD-DVD at a serious advantage point.
As for PC software on CDs...I think that will be going away soon. Problem with OS discs on DVD is one thing.....no boot standard. There is a boot standard for CD-ROM, which allows for someone to put bootable code on it, which will work with any PC that has a BIOS that allows for CD booting, as well as a compatible drive. Now games come in a DVD version as well...such as Oblivion, Everquest2, and many others. i suspect there are some softwares as well. There is also one last problem with DVDs and software....there has been no real effort for copy-protections that can work right on DVDs....like Oblivion just has a very crude CD check in place....circa 1994 style CD checking.
My final take on the HD/Blu battle is this though.....DRM. I don't see where it is giving ME any value-add, but I do see where it can cause me hassle. I say the first one to say it will NEVER have DRM enabled on it, will win me over.
I also think the DRM issue is applicable to anyone that would buy it in the first place, since most of us are enthusiasts compared to the normal consumer...so we do try to keep up on this stuff....plus we are also the ones to spend the big bucks on early technologies.
Pretty much summary time:
Consoles: Battle honestly does not matter here, since Consoles have always been proprietary, and the concept of a game console, which will be replaced when the nextgen comes out, being used as a media hub is laughable at best.
Computers: Battle is slightly more relevant here, especially since apple went Intel...so now for the first time in history, all 3 major computer OSs run on similar hardware platforms. This means whoever wins the PC side of it will more than likely win the HT side of it.
HT: This is going to be another SACD/DVD-A....and we all know how well that battle got sorted out
Really, I do think the computer side will be the determining factor.....we never got to see how DVD-A/SACD would do in that realm thanks to over-zealous DRM making it nearly impossible to use those formats in a practical manner on the computer....so we will see how it goes this time.