How close are we to WWIII?

[Dude#1279435]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/us/politics/trump-iran-military.html

>>>President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.<<<

 

[Dude#1279435]

Maybe this is part of the problem, per google....

The cost to produce an Iranian ballistic missile ranges from approximately $250,000 for medium-range models like the Emad to over $8 million for the more advanced Khorramshahr. On average, most of Iran's primary ballistic missiles cost between $1 million and $2 million each to manufacture.

By comparison, the sophisticated air-defense interceptors used by the U.S. and Israel to shoot them down (such as Patriot or Arrow 3 missiles) can cost between $3 million and $12 million per shot, creating a significant cost-imposition advantage for Iran's barrage tactics

 

[Dude#1279435]

It's most likely as one analyst said another ceasefire to replenish and than a big attack again by the US.

 

[3db]

Maybe that's why Russia is not exporting diesel. Also, Trump told Zelenski to stop hitting Russian oil refineries.

Russia is the only source of diesel at the moment because of the war. The US is on their last few drops from their reserves.

 

[3db]

This is not good. The Houthis is about to close the other strait on the Red Sea, Bal-eh-Mendeb.

The US orchestrated that Saudi bombing of the airport in Yemen and uprising in Yemine. Houthis could not be defeated by the US and Saudi years ago so I’m really curious wtf the strategic thinking of the Trump administration.
Another choke point now under control of Iran.

Trump will be remembered in history but history will not be kind to him. That’s for certain. Maybe the US population will learn to not vote in an incompetent dumbf?ck as a president.

TRUMP POSTPONES MAJOR ATTACK AFTER HOUTHIS BOMB SAUDI - w/ Malcolm Nance

Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTWBp-39z6tvz4-LQB-Z_QA/joinhttps://marionawfal.com/https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal...

www.youtube.com

 

[Dude#1279435]

Russia is the only source of diesel at the moment because of the war. The US is on their last few drops from their reserves.

Then it was as I originally thought. Russia wants to inflict pain on Ukraine and/or the globe.

 

[Dude#1279435]

This is not good. The Houthis is about to close the other strait on the Red Sea, Bal-eh-Mendeb.

The US orchestrated that Saudi bombing of the airport in Yemen and uprising in Yemine. Houthis could not be defeated by the US and Saudi years ago so I’m really curious wtf the strategic thinking of the Trump administration.
Another choke point now under control of Iran.

Trump will be remembered in history but history will not be kind to him. That’s for certain. Maybe the US population will learn to not vote in an incompetent dumbf?ck as a president.

TRUMP POSTPONES MAJOR ATTACK AFTER HOUTHIS BOMB SAUDI - w/ Malcolm Nance

Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTWBp-39z6tvz4-LQB-Z_QA/joinhttps://marionawfal.com/https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal...

www.youtube.com

Haven't watched this one yet, but Malcolm said something I was trying to get at. He said all Iran cares about is having their tea etc. My feeling was the regime will inflict as much pain as possible even if it means doing so on their own. I felt that was the best worst case scenario to use to get people to see who we're dealing with.

Edit: yeah that's an odd strategy to put it kindly. Why would Saudi attack Yemen knowing the Red Sea could come into play???

 

[Dude#1279435]

Like Vietnam? You have some intelligence on the navy, airforce, intercontinental abilities? You have some trust in the intelligence of the drumph to avoid going to a nuclear solution? Fucking crazy ass licking republicans continue to amaze me.....

I'm guessing wars rarely end without some type of compromise. People get disillusioned and want to send their boys home. I remember a person long ago saying we were winning the Vietnam war and the only reason we pulled out was pressure from the left. I thought that was f--ked up because it seemed like he wanted to continue the war so he could say he beat the Democrats.

 

[3db]

Haven't watched this one yet, but Malcolm said something I was trying to get at. He said all Iran cares about is having their tea etc. My feeling was the regime will inflict as much pain as possible even if it means doing so on their own. I felt that was the best worst case scenario to use to get people to see who we're dealing with.

Edit: yeah that's an odd strategy to put it kindly. Why would Saudi attack Yemen knowing the Red Sea could come into play???

Look at who started this war, the sanctions on Iran imposed by the US, the freezing of Iranian assets and you want Iran to give in? Seriously??? The US is finally being held accountable for all the BS it started in the name of US interests.

 

[lovinthehd]

I'm guessing wars rarely end without some type of compromise. People get disillusioned and want to send their boys home. I remember a person long ago saying we were winning the Vietnam war and the only reason we pulled out was pressure from the left. I thought that was f--ked up because it seemed like he wanted to continue the war so he could say he beat the Democrats.

Let alone what LBJ did....

 

[Dude#1279435]

Look at who started this war, the sanctions on Iran imposed by the US, the freezing of Iranian assets and you want Iran to give in? Seriously??? The US is finally being held accountable for all the BS it started in the name of US interests.

I never said that. What I agree with is Iran has been disciplined and precise in their attacks. They make the US look uncoordinated. However, I think all the sanctions are there for a reason: Iran wants nuclear capability. Now Trump might say see that's why I needed to invade, but I'm of the mind it was 2-5 years from uranium enrichment. I think Netanyhu went too far in his land grabbing, and in the end he and Trump have changed things to Iran being liked more. (You know it's bad when people like Iran more.) People like Lindsey have said live they wanna flatten Iran, and that's a war crime. Then there's Israel who wants help from the US but is resistant to help in Iran, or Trump thinking this would be over quickly. So there's a lot of different things going on, and one of them is Israel will never be viewed in the same light since this began. Trump is in a war he can't get out of or unless he hands over the agreements to Iran.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Also, I don't really understand how Cuba can be on the table given the current war? LOL.

 

[3db]

I never said that. What I agree with is Iran has been disciplined and precise in their attacks. They make the US look uncoordinated. However, I think all the sanctions are there for a reason: Iran wants nuclear capability. Now Trump might say see that's why I needed to invade, but I'm of the mind it was 2-5 years from uranium enrichment. I think Netanyhu went too far in his land grabbing, and in the end he and Trump have changed things to Iran being liked more. (You know it's bad when people like Iran more.) People like Lindsey have said live they wanna flatten Iran, and that's a war crime. Then there's Israel who wants help from the US but is resistant to help in Iran, or Trump thinking this would be over quickly. So there's a lot of different things going on, and one of them is Israel will never be viewed in the same light since this began. Trump is in a war he can't get out of or unless he hands over the agreements to Iran.

Trump tore up the JCOA ( or whatever it’s called ) nuclear agreement which Iran complied with until.,.. Some sanctions were to be lifted because of the agreement and some assets were to be unfrozen in accordance with the last JCOA agreement but once again the US double crossed them. That was under Biddb’s administration. Can you honestly blame Iran’s stance against the US?

Now on the nuclear weapons issue, Iran wants to have their own nuclear weapons to deter further aggression by both the US and that fascist toy poodle state, Israel. Judging by Iran’s conduct in this war, I rather see Iran have nukes than Israel.
They are far more logical, restrained, and less likely to use them than Israel.

 

[Eppie]

Have you seen this analysis on China and global oil supply? Pretty interesting if it's plausible.

 

[3db]

I find it fascinating that Israel can perform genicide at will but Iran gets labeled as the big bag regime. The Western propaganda machine is working well it seems. The ONLY country that ever stands up for the Palestinians and against the fascist pig state of Israel is Iran. The Europeans and the Yanks have all turned a blind eye to the Palestinian plight. We should be ashamed of ourselves for letting Israel continually commit crimes against humanity. I find it so ironic that Israel prides itself at remembering the holocaust and yet are doing the same thing to the Palestinians.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Iran doesn't play around when it comes to billboards LOL.

 

[Dude#1279435]

X: Drop Site News

Kpler Strait of Hormuz Data | Past 7 Days

➤ Only 9 liquid tankers have sailed eastward out of the Persian Gulf between July 18 and 24, including two Iran-linked vessels, according to new Kpler transit data.

➤ On Friday, July 24, just 2 tankers crossed the strait: one VLCC and one Iran-linked Panamax, representing roughly 2.48 million barrels of oil.

➤ Pre-war Hormuz carried about 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly a fifth of global consumption.

➤ SoH averaged only 1.3 outbound tankers per day, compared with about 4.3 per day throughout the rest of the war—from March 1 through July 17—a decline of roughly 70%.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Hormuz crossings drop 70% as traffic shifts to Iran route

Kpler data shows Hormuz crossings fell 70% post-truce, with 90% of traffic now on the unrecognised Iranian route as recovery slips to 2027.

www.kpler.com

>>>Between 7 June and 7 July (the window covering the temporary truce arrangement), Kpler recorded an average of around 45 crossings per day through the Strait of Hormuz. After the return to conflict, that average fell to roughly 13 crossings per day, a drop of about 70%. On 21 July, Kpler recorded just nine crossings; by 22 July, 15. Traffic has also concentrated on one route: among vessels still willing to cross, the Iranian unilateral route, announced in April but not approved by the IMO or recognised by the US or EU, carried around 60% of traffic versus 40% for the Omani route during the truce period. Between 15 and 22 July that split moved to roughly 90% Iranian, 10% Omani, and on the most recent day tracked, all eight vessels that crossed used the Iranian route.

Why the Omani route hasn't picked up the slack
The Omani route runs through Omani territorial waters and, like the Iranian route, sits outside the official Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme. In theory it offers a safer alternative for mainstream operators. In practice, insurers haven't priced it that way: because the route wasn't an established transit corridor before this conflict, its risk profile hasn't been mapped the way the main strait has, and insurance premiums haven't dropped meaningfully even for vessels using it. That's kept the Omani option a marginal choice rather than a genuine safety valve, which helps explain why traffic has concentrated on the Iranian side instead.<<<