HD DVD's coffin is almost nailed shut....

[avaserfi]

BD completely owns HD DVD in sales this week with 85% total [first week after the WB statement]. Not surprising considering people are getting scared away from HD DVD. The real question will be media sales this month with the fire sales going on.

Now its only about public perception while BD is solidifying theirs HD DVD is in a downward spiral.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Trends/Disc_Sales/Blu-ray_Dominates_Disc_Sales_Chart_Post-Warner_Announcement/1383

 

[stratman]

You know these fire sales are having a worse effect than Warner's defection, remember public perception plays a big role in sales and psychologically consumers are writing off HD DVD without realizing that the format is not dead.

 

[Matt34]

I'm really glad I held back, I'm only going to be out one HD-DVD and player.

 

[Rob Babcock]

I have an HD-DVD player I bought for $150, but only 4 or 5 movies. Just a fluke, really- I've ended up relocating to 3 different towns in the last 9 months and had my HT dismantled for more than half that time. If I had all my stuff up those months I'd probably have 50 discs by now.

At first I was "rooting" for HD-DVD, but they basically punked us out. Weren't the discs supposed to be cheaper than BRD? Not in my neck of the woods; they run between a few bucks and $15 more! And why on God's green Earth would I ever pay $37 to buy the same movie on HD & SD? That's just asinine- if for whatever reason someone wants both, let them buy both. But don't expect me to pay full retail for the SD coaster they pack alongside the HD one!

For leading us on then screwing us over, 'eff you, HD. Good riddance.

 

[Tomorrow]

And why on God's green Earth would I ever pay $37 to buy the same movie on HD & SD? That's just asinine- if for whatever reason someone wants both, let them buy both. But don't expect me to pay full retail for the SD coaster they pack alongside the HD one!

For leading us on then screwing us over, 'eff you, HD. Good riddance.

And just what causes you to think that Sony et al won't do the same thing to you if given the opportunity?

 

[gus6464]

I was at BB this weekend and saw a ton of people buying BD players. They even had a huge pile of A3 massed up in the middle aisle but no one was buying. Well folks I think the end is near for HD DVD.

 

[Rob Babcock]

And just what causes you to think that Sony et al won't do the same thing to you if given the opportunity?

Ummm...so you're saying once they win the format war, Sony will pull the plug on their format and sell nothing? M'kay...

As for what they might do, HD-DVD has already screwed us. I can't really damn Sony for the possibility that they might do what HD-DVD has done for a year. With every incentive to compete on price they've given us higher prices and less selection.

Darwin is looking like a genius right now.

 

[BMXTRIX]

For leading us on then screwing us over, 'eff you, HD. Good riddance.

I feel for you on this, but you can't place blame on them at all.

HD DVD was never going to be cheaper for disc production. It was most definitely argued by fanboys, but never was claimed by studios or manufacturers.

Why? Because discs are little pieces of plastic with some emulsion layers on it that are stamped.

The difference in raw materials amounts to a penny or less between CD and Blu-ray or HD DVD. It's nothing!

The biggest costs with production are the mastering of the disc (labor intensive) and the hardware costs and disc setup costs.

The hardware costs for a Blu-ray line are prohibitive... but the end result is a disc production cost that is a dime or two within the cost of HD DVD. These numbers have been gone over many times and verified many times by multiple sources.

For a studio, if they sell twice as many discs on one format, as is consistently the case with Blu-ray, and they only pay 10% more to make the discs, then they end up with far more profits from the one format even if selling at the same price.

This should never have been questioned.

What's more amazing is the aggressive nature of the BD marketing which has been pushing BOGO sales at places like Amazon for some really new titles. I got the Pirates movies with this special, as well as the 4 Harry Potter movies. In fact, I have about 25+ movies now, and I probably spend no more than $15 a disc per movie. Nowhere near the MSRP - and barely more than DVD pricing.

No, HD DVD did not make promises. They produced movies and left it up to people on websites to say what would be the end result to consumers. Others, myself included, said just as firmly that those people were wrong, and explained our reason why.

Yet, a format war is always something that will have a certain amount of doubt.

In this case, HD DVD went to discount hardware while Blu-ray was discounting software. Software has always driven hardware sales, and cheaper software sells far better than expensive software. It just is a smarter strategy. Yes, you may end up with more HD DVD players, but nobody wants to buy movies when they cost so much so sales are held back and studios see the competition selling far more and wonder why they aren't in that camp... or both camps.

It just sucks for some, but nobody who did some homework can't say "I didn't know that HD DVD had less studio and CE support." Since that's been a huge factor, if not the only factor, it has all really played out as some of us have expected.

Yes, it still has a lot of playing out to do.

 

[BMXTRIX]

You know these fire sales are having a worse effect than Warner's defection, remember public perception plays a big role in sales and psychologically consumers are writing off HD DVD without realizing that the format is not dead.

Does it matter if it is or isn't?

HD DVD is dead when consumers stop buying it. So, if consumers aren't buying into HD DVD, then it IS dead. It doesn't matter if there are a milion players out there. Betamax had WAY more than a million players and had software made for it years after it was 'dead', but when the public says HD DVD is dead and buying patterns lean towards Blu-ray, then the format is dead and very little will pull it away from that.

The only reason at all that HD DVD could maintain any niche status is if Universal and Paramount stay right where they are. If they both end up neutral, then there is no incentive at all for people to buy HD DVD.

 

[acacia987]

i cant wait for them to drop below 100, i may buy 2 if the mood strikes me!

 

[allargon]

The mainstream press always preferred Blu-Ray over HD DVD. Blu-Ray had more studio support. The bloggers liked the bigger capacity, higher bitrates and scratch resistant coating. The mainstream press probably liked the great number of CE's and studios supporting Blu-Ray. Consumer Reports published a review of high def players nearly 3 months after Paramount went HD DVD exclusive claiming that only Universal was in the HD DVD camp. (They didn't even say anything about the profile issue.) No one is even saying that Warner is still publishing on HD DVD. They are still hastening HD DVD's demise although Paramount and Universal still don't publish anything on Blu-Ray.

If HD DVD fails it will be because it failed to garner more studio support. Let's cut the crap, movie sales were 60:40 last year because Disney, Sony, Lionsgate, Fox, Anchor Bay/Starz, Warner and Paramount released 60% on Blu-Ray--not because of the PS3, the press or even more CE's (which ironically never lowered BD standalone prices or fostered better players).

 

[jeffsg4mac]

I have about 10 HD DVD's and my 5 free ones on the way. I won't buy anymore unless they are dirt cheap. Any movies I get will be BlueRay or SD DVD.

 

[Tomorrow]

Ummm...so you're saying once they win the format war, Sony will pull the plug on their format and sell nothing? M'kay...

As for what they might do, HD-DVD has already screwed us. I can't really damn Sony for the possibility that they might do what HD-DVD has done for a year. With every incentive to compete on price they've given us higher prices and less selection.

Darwin is looking like a genius right now.

Don't know where you got that out of what I said.

Oh, Rob. I feel your pain, too, as I have an A2. I'm saying that BD would cost you an arm and a leg if they have no competition and the item is desirable. My point is simply that it is a fact that ANY large business will put the financial screws to you given the chance. It's their duty to their stockholders.

 

[stratman]

Does it matter if it is or isn't?

HD DVD is dead when consumers stop buying it. So, if consumers aren't buying into HD DVD, then it IS dead. It doesn't matter if there are a milion players out there. Betamax had WAY more than a million players and had software made for it years after it was 'dead', but when the public says HD DVD is dead and buying patterns lean towards Blu-ray, then the format is dead and very little will pull it away from that.

The only reason at all that HD DVD could maintain any niche status is if Universal and Paramount stay right where they are. If they both end up neutral, then there is no incentive at all for people to buy HD DVD.

Exactly IF consumers aren't buying. Fire sales give the illusion that the format is completely dead on the water, prompting new consumers to directly go the BD route, HD DVD isn't dead yet. If Universal and Paramount do stay where they are (I doubt this), it will be a slower death for HD DVD, two studios releasing material doesn't make business sense. Most likely they'll go BD, or neutral at best. The bottom line: this is all a moot point, if BR "wins" the next logical step is to take on SD DVD, which it won't be able to, thus BD is relegated to a niche market (as it is right now) a la LD. If the mainstream doesn't adopt BD, it will be phased out.