The dots look a lot like pixel structure. I see a fading in a couple areas around the image, and if this is predominantly an issue only on blue, then I would expect it to be an issue with the blue polarizer internal to the projector, which is (basically) a fatal issue.
The stuff on the lens shouldn't have any impact.
Is the issue across all colors? If you put up red or green, is the shadowing exactly the same and in the same position?
This is a new one on me really as it does look like panel degradation, but it isn't presenting itself in a typical way as far as I can tell.