Forbes is giving predictions, but it doesn't seem like Forbest is giving explanations which justify their predictions. It's fine to say "Look, this is the current trend, and it will continue." - But how realistic is that?
This very site has made the very serious mistake (IMO) of comparing HD audio formats which are served up one full album at a time vs. HD video formats which are served up one specific movie at a time. On demand music - downloadable content - it fixes the issue with the album and delivers portability that no first generation Walkman could even have dreamt up.
Yet, portability isn't what you see when you walk into the VIDEO section of Best Buy, Circuit City or anywhere else. Our displays are getting bigger! Laptop displays, computer displays, and televisions are shooting way up in size. I'm not sure there is more than a limited few people on this A/V site that don't have at least one display in their home over 27" diagonal... though I'm sure there are some.
So, while consumer awareness of the MP3 format and portable music is hitting an all time high - it took many years for it to actually happen.
HDTV is a buzzword, but to get HD, people will need to learn about it and brand recognition and marketing will build up over years. There is no question that this will include on-demand services, but only if it makes sense. Right now, it typically does not make sense. You often lose the ability to pause the movie - which is incredibly important to any of us with kids... or bladders.
What is possible is that we will see the decline of the DVD format over the upcoming years. That HD will replace it in various formats across the board as HD optical disc players drop to DVD pricing levels in upcoming years. Then the DVD goes the way of the VHS, and we finally see HD optical discs start to take stride. But, On-Demand didn't exist when DVD hit the ground, and that will continue to grow, which will cut into HD optical discs as will HDDL - HD DownLoads. The HDDL is most likely the one that will really be a killer of HD optical discs as it will offer the portability, quality, and permanence that so many people desire.
Of course, HDDL requires the technology to store, protect, and manage 30GB+ chunks of data in a convenient package at a reasonable price... and requires the Internet connection to deliver so much data to the masses effectively.
I think we are about 5 years away from HDDL marketability, and maybe 10 years away from it being effective to the masses. On-Demand is already here and will continue to grow, but does not offer the replacement to the actual ownership of the media, so while it will grow, it will also level off far faster than any other technology.
HD optical discs will continue to grow in popularity over the next few years. The rate of adoption will be enhanced significantly by one of the two formats becoming the industry standard... or by dual format players replacing the single format players on the market. By 2012 I expect the DVD market may be considered 'dead' and that its replacement will be considered to be HD optical discs, and nothing else.
In this day and age, there is no replacement for the CD. HD audio formats deliver more for sure, but not when you want it in your car, or on the subway through some $15 ear buds. So, the replacement for the CD is the mp3. The reality of the same happenning with video is not realistic and a very poor comparison to make. DVD will have a replacement and HD is the buzzword these days... one which DVD doesn't cater to.
