nick_danger said:
So you wouldn't replace any of them?
It sounds like all the major studios are backing HD-DVD. I hope Sony doesn't try to split the market like the Beta fiasco.
Actually, Nick, it's looking like pretty close to a 50/50 split right now.
Sony has their own studios plus MGM (which they recently bought) and as of this AM, Disney (which includes all of their subsidiaries like Touchstone, Miramax, etc...) supporting Blu-Ray.
HD-DVD has Warner, Universal, Paramount, and New Line.
Fox is the last major hold-out, but it looks like they're leaning ever-so-slightly toward Blu-Ray. If that's the way they go, the marketshare percentages will line-up within a few percent of dead even.
Aside from the actual Sony-controlled houses, none of the deals are exclusive, so as the format lanch dates approach, don't be surprised to see some shifting of alliances or even hedging of bets with some of the same titles announced for both platforms.
The other big advantage Sony has is the bully pulpit of the Playstation. If the history of consumer electronics is any guide, dedicated HD players will debut at a price point of close to $1000. If the PS3, which Sony will probably initially sell at a loss for well under $500, has Blu-Ray movie playback capability, there will be a whole lot more Blu-Ray than HD-DVD hardware out there by mid-2006. Combined with the Sony-owned studios, even a 50/50 marketshare split of DVD releases going into the HD format launches will be hard to overcome by the HD-DVD Forum-aligned studios.
Any way you slice it, though, the war's going to be ugly.
The only small comfort I have right now is that since the software layer is almost completely identical between the 2 formats, it shouldn't be too difficult for someone to build a dual-platform player. Who will risk the politics to do so is another problem entirely. (You can bet it won't be a Sony or Toshiba name on the faceplate, though.)
