El Nino/Nina

[TLS Guy]

I found this:

La Niña Conditions Strengthen, Expected To Continue


ScienceDaily (Feb. 17, 2008) — The current La Niña event, characterized by a cooling of the sea surface in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has strengthened slightly in recent months and is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2008, with a likelihood of persisting through to the middle of the year.

The ongoing La Niña event started in the third quarter of 2007 and has already influenced climate patterns during the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the Equatorial Pacific, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa and the Americas.

During the last three months, La Niña conditions have become slightly stronger. Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius colder than average over large parts of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. This La Niña is in the mid range of past historically recorded events, but the slight further cooling in recent months will likely place it on the stronger side of the middle range.

During a La Niña event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. Such cooling has important effects on the global weather, particularly rainfall. While sea surface temperatures cool in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, those in the west remain warmer. This is associated with increases in the frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms in surrounding regions.

In contrast to La Niña, the El Niño phenomenon is characterized by substantially warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.

These temperature changes in the Equatorial Pacific related to La Niña and El Niño are strongly linked to major global climate fluctuations and, once initiated, can last for 12 months or more.

Most interpretations of existing climatological data suggest the likelihood of La Niña conditions remaining heightened through the second quarter of 2008 and, at a lower level of confidence, into the first part of the third quarter.

Longer seasonal forecasts beyond the third quarter of 2008 are not considered to contain useful information at this stage on the continuation of La Niña or the rise of El Niño.

It is rare for a La Niña event to persist for two years or more, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000. The likelihood of the current La Niña continuing for such a period will remain unclear for some months, but will be closely monitored. Long-term statistics suggest it is more likely that in the latter part of 2008, neutral conditions will prevail, i.e., neither La Niña nor El Niño with no significant cooling or warming of Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Adapted from materials provided by World Meteorological Organization.

And if neutral conditions persist into next winter we will have a hell of a winter. Our worst winters are the neutral condition, as happened with the 1996/1997 winter which caused the "Great Red River of the North Flood" of April 1997

 

[stratman]

And if neutral conditions persist into next winter we will have a hell of a winter. Our worst winters are the neutral condition, as happened with the 1996/1997 winter which caused the "Great Red River of the North Flood" of April 1997

Doc, how are you doing? How's that retirement working out?

Well, as for this hurricane season, I hope the El Nina works out for us, we need at least one more year without insurance claims to make insurance companies feel at ease and lower the insurance burden for many of us, also keep building materials and roofers within reasonable price margins.

 

[Tomorrow]

And if neutral conditions persist into next winter we will have a hell of a winter. Our worst winters are the neutral condition, as happened with the 1996/1997 winter which caused the "Great Red River of the North Flood" of April 1997

Pretty close, Doc. Climatology models are a bit more complex than that. Many factors come into play when weather produces the kind of conditions you had in the north during that winter (or at any time). Another major player is the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). These oscillations are typically characterized by a strong eastward propagation of atmospheric convection over relatively warm ocean waters, and last usually a month or two. Also very important are local short-term normal cyclic and anomalous conditions, e.g. lots of rain->fast freezing->fast warming/raining. Lastly, it wasn't the 'neutral' El Nino/La Nina condition per se, but a transition from a La Nina (a cold, wet winter) that helped create those '96-'97 conditions.

Here's a good reference ...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/rriver.html

 

[haraldo]

We're pretty well off with the weather here too

I'll provide two illustrative examples

1. A winter a few years ago, it only rained once that winter !
You may say that's pretty nice.... Well, that single shower lasted from October to May

2. Two US tourists approaches a kid, asking.... Hey there. tell me, does it always rain in Bergen, while the kid replies... I don't know... I'm only ten years old....

 

[TLS Guy]

Pretty close, Doc. Climatology models are a bit more complex than that. Many factors come into play when weather produces the kind of conditions you had in the north during that winter (or at any time). Another major player is the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). These oscillations are typically characterized by a strong eastward propagation of atmospheric convection over relatively warm ocean waters, and last usually a month or two. Also very important are local short-term normal cyclic and anomalous conditions, e.g. lots of rain->fast freezing->fast warming/raining. Lastly, it wasn't the 'neutral' El Nino/La Nina condition per se, but a transition from a La Nina (a cold, wet winter) that helped create those '96-'97 conditions.

Here's a good reference ...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/rriver.html

Interesting. I remember at the time the buzz was the transition out of la Nina, and the neutral condition.

This winter we have had much below temps with a little below average snow fall. Although we are scheduled to get 6 to 10 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow, and some more snow later in the week.

 

[haraldo]

Interesting. I remember at the time the buzz was the transition out of la Nina, and the neutral condition.

This winter we have had much below temps with a little below average snow fall. Although we are scheduled to get 6 to 10 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow, and some more snow later in the week.

For some reason we're also having "full winter" and snowfall way into the spring when we supposedly should have nice warm weather and spring conditions, but suddenly the winter's back...

I don't like winter
I like it warm!!! like the Greek Islands !!! (b.t.w. You should try the Greek Islands )

 

[Tomorrow]

We're pretty well off with the weather here too

I'll provide two illustrative examples

1. A winter a few years ago, it only rained once that winter !
You may say that's pretty nice.... Well, that single shower lasted from October to May

2. Two US tourists approaches a kid, asking.... Hey there. tell me, does it always rain in Bergen, while the kid replies... I don't know... I'm only ten years old....

That's pretty funny, haraldo. Thanks.

We've had an interesting La Nina year on the west coast (Oregon). Last month we set snowfall records that only skiers love. The one ski slope closest to us (Mt. Hood Meadows) had 199" of snow (just last month!). Pretty wild. This winter, we here directly on the coast had three storms with hurricane force winds (quite unusual), one topping 140 mph, and a half-dozen more with winds in excess of 50 mph. All in all, this has been a pain-in-the-patoot winter for U.S. northwesterners.

 

[TLS Guy]

Doc, how are you doing? How's that retirement working out?

Well, as for this hurricane season, I hope the El Nina works out for us, we need at least one more year without insurance claims to make insurance companies feel at ease and lower the insurance burden for many of us, also keep building materials and roofers within reasonable price margins.

I'm doing fairly well as long as I'm careful. I have had a busy couple of weeks here. The crew left an hour ago.

We had to replace all the plumbing that was put in in the remodel two years ago. More corporate and Chinese malfeasance I'm afraid.

We are supposed to get six to 10 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow, but we are inching into Spring. I have been making arrangements to get the boats in sometime the first week of May. The lake is still frozen across at the moment, but I think the ice will be gone in two to three weeks.

I did register for the State of the Union, but I'm not absolutely sure I will make the trip, but likely I will.

Now the building crew have left I'm going to get back to the design of the speakers I'm working on for Audioholics. I have a son getting married in three weeks, so no construction for prototypes will start until later. I will have to get the grounds and roads ship shape first, once the frost goes out of the ground.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Yeah, so spoiled, I guess if it gets below 70 degrees you call it freezing

Is that in C of Kelvin

 

[haraldo]

B.T.W.
TLS Guy's got a great boat that he worked on for two years, that's what I call commitment

 

[haraldo]

Is that in C of Kelvin

I'm talking Fahrenheit (We're using centigrades over here' but with all the US guys around it's easier for me to convert to F)

 

[Rickster71]

Climatology models are a bit more complex than that....

Of course they're complex!
That's why we have Al Gore working on it.

 

[TLS Guy]

Of course they're complex!
That's why we have Al Gore working on it.

Yes, and we just had a foot of snow over night, with close to another foot to come!

 

[haraldo]

Now it's official, the right wing party over here claim the Climate issues to be a scam, they don't believe it and they're providing proof from a professor....

Emmmmm... He's a professor, but in welding techniques

 

[Rickster71]

The global climate has been fluctuating for centuries.
It's the political football of it's cause, that seems to be a point of contention.

 

[TLS Guy]

Global warming? Marrooned at Walberswick House Benedict Lake MN today.

It started to snow very hard at Benedict Minnesota last night.

Here are the pictures.

http://mdcarter.smugmug.com/Weather

Since those pictures were taken this morning we have received almost twice that today. It is still snowing very hard and I can't see the lake, let alone across it.

I will take more pictures in the morning and add them to the gallery. It is also cold and I have kept the wood burning fireplace stoked.

I will start the 60 year old John Deere Model A up in the morning and see if she is up to the task. It has snow chains. If she can get a grip, it will move it. The two cylinders will really snap too, and I bet she will be heard over several miles. The governor will open wide a good deal of the time. The two pistons fire in 180 degrees rotation: fire fire, exhaust, exhaust. Max revs 900 rpm! That gives the John Deere Waterloo tractors a unique sound, that can be heard over a long distance when working hard. Tomorrow she will work hard!

They also had heavy snow in England. My father says there is 8 inches in the garden, the heaviest snow fall in that part of England in many years.

Now this global warming alleged to be due to CO2 is nonsense. Anybody who regards CO2 as a pollutant is gullible. Al Gore and his henchmen are fools of the first rank.

Professor Osbourne of UND center for aerospace and aviation and head of meteorology has been studying climate going back 2000 years, and he says the natural variation is huge. Saying that recent events are out of the norm in the context of a long period of time is nonsense. You just can't say with any certainty that there is a significant long term trend here. The debate is certainly not over!

This global warming bandwagon, will prove to be one of the great, if not the greatest Pollyanna in history. The worst of it all this nonsense about carbon footprints is costly and contributing to a sap on resources. Science it is not!

Here is a picture taken at Walberswick House Benedict Lake at Easter.

http://mdcarter.smugmug.com/gallery/4633745_WpaYQ#P-3-12

We have had a cold winter, and with this cold snap I will use over 15,000 KWH of electric ripple heat, all generated from coal. I will also have used 550 gallons of propane back up heat, and burned 6 to 7 cords of wood. Quite a nice carbon footprint. I won't be seeking credits!

 

[Tomorrow]

It started to snow very hard at Benedict Minnesota last night.

Here are the pictures.

http://mdcarter.smugmug.com/Weather

Since those pictures were taken this morning we have received almost twice that today. It is still snowing very hard and I can't see the lake, let alone across it.

I will take more pictures in the morning and add them to the gallery. It is also cold and I have kept the wood burning fireplace stoked.

I will start the 60 year old John Deere Model A up in the morning and see if she is up to the task. It has snow chains. If she can get a grip, it will move it. The two cylinders will really snap too, and I bet she will be heard over several miles. The governor will open wide a good deal of the time. The two pistons fire in 180 degrees rotation: fire fire, exhaust, exhaust. Max revs 900 rpm! That gives the John Deere Waterloo tractors a unique sound, that can be heard over a long distance when working hard. Tomorrow she will work hard!

They also had heavy snow in England. My father says there is 8 inches in the garden, the heaviest snow fall in that part of England in many years.

Now this global warming alleged to be due to CO2 is nonsense. Anybody who regards CO2 as a pollutant is gullible. Al Gore and his henchmen are fools of the first rank.

Professor Osbourne of UND center for aerospace and aviation and head of meteorology has been studying climate going back 2000 years, and he says the natural variation is huge. Saying that recent events are out of the norm in the context of a long period of time is nonsense. You just can't say with any certainty that there is a significant long term trend here. The debate is certainly not over!

This global warming bandwagon, will prove to be one of the great, if not the greatest Pollyanna in history. The worst of it all this nonsense about carbon footprints is costly and contributing to a sap on resources. Science it is not!

Here is a picture taken at Walberswick House Benedict Lake at Easter.

http://mdcarter.smugmug.com/gallery/4633745_WpaYQ#P-3-12

We have had a cold winter, and with this cold snap I will use over 15,000 KWH of electric ripple heat, all generated from coal. I will also have used 550 gallons of propane back up heat, and burned 6 to 7 cords of wood. Quite a nice carbon footprint. I won't be seeking credits!

Lovely place you have there, doc. JD tractor AND schooner models on the mantle...I'm sure there's a story there.

The PC crowd are now swapping the "global warming" label for "climate change". That gives them some data fudging space.

 

[stratman]

Geeeeeez Doc! We were at 83+/- degrees today, next month dolphin season starts and I can't wait. Dolphin as in the fish, we don't call it mahi-mahi down here, either dolphin or dorado (spanish), mahi-mahi's reserved for the tourists that think we kill porpoises for lunch!

 

[TLS Guy]

Geeeeeez Doc! We were at 83+/- degrees today, next month dolphin season starts and I can't wait. Dolphin as in the fish, we don't call it mahi-mahi down here, either dolphin or dorado (spanish), mahi-mahi's reserved for the tourists that think we kill porpoises for lunch!

I will take more pictures tomorrow. It is still snowing and the amount of snow is incredible even for here.

I think fishing opener is in five weeks, but I'm not a fisherman. The water will still be ice cold, and I wonder if there will be ice flows this year on Leech Lake.

The incredible thing is how far South this actually is. We are 225 miles south of Winnipeg, and Winnipeg is on the same latitude as the southern tip of the British Isles. So we are 225 miles south of lands end, close to the Mediterranean in latitude.

 

[haraldo]

I will take more pictures tomorrow. It is still snowing and the amount of snow is incredible even for here.

I think fishing opener is in five weeks, but I'm not a fisherman. The water will still be ice cold, and I wonder if there will be ice flows this year on Leech Lake.

The incredible thing is how far South this actually is. We are 225 miles south of Winnipeg, and Winnipeg is on the same latitude as the southern tip of the British Isles. So we are 225 miles south of lands end, close to the Mediterranean in latitude.

Hang on there. I'm sure the snow will be gone till mid-summer