In your example, you don't take the cone excursion factor for the two frequencies into consideration.
It does. Cone excursion in this case (a sealed box) is related to frequency and output as you originally asserted. 6dB more output equates to double the excursion; dropping down an octave (halving the frequency) while output remains the same equates to four times the excursion from the system. This is true (with caveats if you want to go deeper) for sealed boxes and infinite baffle installations.
An equation from Leo Beranek's
Acoustics gives a pretty good idea of how these factors (and a couple other pertinent details) go together for these alignments:
pRMS = sqrt(2) * pi * f^2 * rho * Sd * xp / r
where:
pRMS = RMS acoustic pressure in Pascals, half space
f = frequency in Hz
rho = density of air (= 1.2041 kg / m^3 at 20 deg C, sea level)
Sd = surface area of driver in m^2
xp = peak displacement in meters (driver excursion)
r = distance in meters
To compute SPL, you calculate:
SPL = 20 * log10 (pRMS/ pREF ) where: pREF = 2 * 10^-5 Pascals
If you're lazy, this site dumbs things down a bit, but gets the job done for those who want to play around with the basics:
http://www.baudline.com/erik/bass/xmaxer.html
In the example I provided, the UM18 driver is delivering 2dB more output at 50Hz vs 100Hz for the same 2 volt input. IOW, the cone is delivering more than 4x the excursion (more output + 1 octave deeper) when being fed 2V at 50Hz vs being fed the same 2V at 100Hz. The impedance profile also means that the UM18 driver is soaking up more current (and thus more power) at 100Hz.