Blu-ray Sales Up 400% Compared To 2007

[BMXTRIX]

Seems there's lots of editorials out there based on strange information, so I thought people would like a bit of perspective that follows the way most business analysts would view things...

http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=197

• There are more than 6 million Blu-ray players in the North American market alone (PS3 and stand-alone) – that’s up 50% from the 4 million just four months ago in December.

• More than 4.7 million copies of Blu-ray movies were sold in the first four months of the year in North America alone, a nearly 400% increase over 2007 and nearly half of the 10.8 million sold since inception, according to Home Media Research compiled by the Redhill Group.

• Blu-ray is growing from 2% of the total DVD business in 2007 to a projected 8% this year, with the percentage of Blu-ray vs DVD sales increasing even further on most new titles.

While not everyone is buying in yet, the concept of sales 'tanking' during these first few months of 2008 is clearly well off the factual mark.

 

[Alamar]

You would certainly expect that for sales to be "tanking" that sales would actually have to be going down for that to happen.

I was hoping that sales of devices && content would have been faster than what we've seen but as some other people have said we it may be 18 months or more before we get to the truly critical times in BD's life.

 

[billy p]

Any bean counter can make numbers look good? In simple terms that's 1 out of every 60 people in NA own a HD player. I am no business major but thats still a small number when compared to SD dvd's. As a matter of fact of the people I know only one of them owns a HD player but all of them own at least one DVD player.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Any bean counter can make numbers look good? In simple terms that's 1 out of every 60 people in NA own a HD player. I am no business major but thats still a small number when compared to SD dvd's. As a matter of fact of the people I know only one of them owns a HD player but all of them own at least one DVD player.

VERY TRUE!

Yet, DVD sales are actually dropping, not increasing, so the growth of HD for home video is great for those who love movies and have HD displays at home.

Not sure, but how many of your friends have HDTVs at home? HD has been around for 10 years+ now... how long did it take them to buy a HDTV? Five years? Seven years? This past holiday season?

Blu-ray showing significant growth from year to year, and maintaining that level of growth, which is possible for the next year for sure, is nothing but a very good thing. Just beyond the first half of 2008 Blu-ray should just about double the total number of players on the market in the USA. That leaves out the busiest shopping time of the year! Jumping from about 2% of sales to 4% for disc based revenue.

As long as studios are seeing positive growth, and increased sales and profitability we should see more and more discs come to market. Which is just darn exciting because for those with some eclectic tastes in video, they will get some of the smaller releases they may like with both HD video and audio. For those who want a player, increased sales usually brings about lower pricing and higher reliability - though Blu-ray clearly has some work to do in this area.

It just makes me happy that we may finally be getting all the TV shows and movies to finally make our HDTVs look the way they are supposed to. I've been waiting about five years for this.

 

[billy p]

There is no denying I want a HD player, but not under the current monopoly.

 

[j_garcia]

There is no denying I want a HD player, but not under the current monopoly.

What monopoly? Toshiba's product was an actual monopoly, since they were almost the only ones producing players. At least there are different manufacturers in BD, and all of the companies making HD players are the same ones making DVD players, so I guess I don't quite see where you are going with that comment.

 

[Alamar]

What monopoly? Toshiba's product was an actual monopoly, since they were almost the only ones producing players. At least there are different manufacturers in BD, and all of the companies making HD players are the same ones making DVD players, so I guess I don't quite see where you are going with that comment.

Maybe what the original poster meant by monopoly was that there is only ONE BD product really worth having and that's a PS3. I'm aware that there are plenty of other players but if you want a good / basic 2.0 player the PS3 seems to be the way to go.

 

[billy p]

Maybe what the original poster meant by monopoly was that there is only ONE BD product really worth having and that's a PS3. I'm aware that there are plenty of other players but if you want a good / basic 2.0 player the PS3 seems to be the way to go.

Okay, monopoly may have been inappropriate, but basically the only affordable and viable BR product out there is the Sony PS3. Since its release all the other mfg's are still fumbling along, playing catch up while the PS3 is finding itself in more and more peoples homes which IMHO is a monopoly?

 

[BMXTRIX]

Okay, monopoly may have been inappropriate, but basically the only affordable and viable BR product out there is the Sony PS3. Since its release all the other mfg's are still fumbling along, playing catch up while the PS3 is finding itself in more and more peoples homes which IMHO is a monopoly?

I don't know about a monopoly, but it sure as heck is the one that represents, by far, the most value to the consumer.

I got one on opening week and consider myself very lucky to have been able to enjoy it for the past 18 months and to see the serious upgrades that have been given to me for free since I bought it.

Yet, it doesn't deny that many people are happy with the BD30 and others have the Denon and are happy. There are even some Samsung owners who aren't complaining.

Yet, by far, it is the PS3 which is the core of BD player sales to this point.

I anxiously await a stand alone player that matches the pure quality that the PS3 offers - or exceeds it. My big wish is for analog stereo outputs as well as audio over HDMI so that I can send my HD anywhere in the house with audio when I want to.

It isn't technically a monopoly, but you are correct, and nobody should be denying, that the PS3 by far is the largest represnting single product in the market surpasing by many times all the stand alone players combined.

Yet, I think that in the next 18 months (by next holiday season) we will see players that match the PS3 for speed and quality while coming in for a better price. No, I'm not so optomistic as to believe that it will happen this year, but with Panny holding the majority of patents in the technology, they stand to gain a great deal by more players being sold, which is likely part of the reason why they are pretty much leading the way with quality stand alone players.

Not really a monopoly, but certainly one player easily is head and shoulders above the rest, and my 32 year old, non-video game playing wife, certainly has no issues enjoying movies on it.

I keep thinking that if Sony incorporated IR into the PS3 and shaped it like a 'normal' A/V component, that they would sell way more units than they already do.

"PS3 - Home Theater Version" - Yup, that would really shake some people up.

 

[jaydog67]

so whats 2nd best

After the PS3?

 

[BMXTRIX]

After the PS3?

Most people think the Panasonic BD30 is pretty solid. I haven't used it personally, but you may want to check the thread in the main 'general forum' as there is a long thread on the best BD player on the market right now.

I'm really hopeful that the BD50 from Panasonic which is do out soon, will be rock solid.

I'm more hopeful that Sony will take the PS3, put an IR receiver in it, eliminate game play completely, and sell it as a stand alone BD player in a case that looks like a normal A/V component. Not holding my breath on that one though.

 

[Shadow_Ferret]

Not sure, but how many of your friends have HDTVs at home? HD has been around for 10 years+ now... how long did it take them to buy a HDTV? Five years? Seven years? This past holiday season?

None. I don't know anyone personally who owns an HDTV.

As far as sales of BluRay being up 400% over a year ago, that's easy to do since a year ago no one was sure which format was going to win. Everyone was hesitant to buy. Now there's a clear winner and many more PS3s are in the home.

Personally, I think BluRay will level off long before it reaches anywhere near the market share SD DVD has until players and discs come down in price.

 

[BMXTRIX]

As far as sales of BluRay being up 400% over a year ago, that's easy to do since a year ago no one was sure which format was going to win. Everyone was hesitant to buy. Now there's a clear winner and many more PS3s are in the home.

Yes, but by the end of 2007, BD accounted for 2% market share. A 400% increase in sales 2008 vs. 2007 shows in increase from 2% market share to 8% market share in a single year. In a multi-billion dollar industry, that's a significant growth.

Personally, I think BluRay will level off long before it reaches anywhere near the market share SD DVD has until players and discs come down in price.

I agree, I don't think DVD will account for much unless the price of DVD players come down from their average brand name price of $500 a player, at the two year mark.

Yes, at two years, DVD players cost about $500 for many of the brand name players, only delivered 480i resolution, and software ran upwards of $20 across the board.

So, what would keep Blu-ray player prices from falling over the next few years as the technology is refined and companies like Panasonic continue to deliver new things like their new chip which replaces 9 of the chips currently needed on today's Blu-ray players?

I agree - prices need to fall for mass acceptance. To think, for a second, that pricing won't fall, would be foolish and unsubstantiated over the long term based upon the history of consumer electronics pricing. How long it takes? That's a different story.

 

[Soundman]

None. I don't know anyone personally who owns an HDTV.

As far as sales of BluRay being up 400% over a year ago, that's easy to do since a year ago no one was sure which format was going to win. Everyone was hesitant to buy. Now there's a clear winner and many more PS3s are in the home.

Personally, I think BluRay will level off long before it reaches anywhere near the market share SD DVD has until players and discs come down in price.

Hey Shadow Ferret!!

I'm just curious about where you live. Do you seriously not know one person who owns a HDTV???? I mean, I understand that there are more standard definition TV's in homes because many peple haven't upgraded yet, largely due to price, finances, the economy, etc. That is perfectly fine of course. But it's only a matter of time before this all changes since those old TV's are going to eventually break and those people are going to go shopping and have to look really, really hard to even find a SDTV. Anyway, HDTV's have penetrated the market. Prices have really come down from what they used to be. I just thought it almost unbelieveable that you don't know 1 single person who actually owns one. Wow!

 

[billy p]

Hey Shadow Ferret!!

I'm just curious about where you live. Do you seriously not know one person who owns a HDTV???? I mean, I understand that there are more standard definition TV's in homes because many peple haven't upgraded yet, largely due to price, finances, the economy, etc. That is perfectly fine of course. But it's only a matter of time before this all changes since those old TV's are going to eventually break and those people are going to go shopping and have to look really, really hard to even find a SDTV. Anyway, HDTV's have penetrated the market. Prices have really come down from what they used to be. I just thought it almost unbelieveable that you don't know 1 single person who actually owns one. Wow!

I think people who subscribe to these forums believe everyone is AV crazed and its simply not true? I believe for the most part that your average consumer is very content with his SD up conversion dvd player, CRT tube and HTIB set up. In fact from the people I know most of them don't care for this hobby.

 

[PENG]

I think people who subscribe to these forums believe everyone is AV crazed and its simply not true? I believe for the most part that your average consumer is very content with his SD up conversion dvd player, CRT tube and HTIB set up. In fact from the people I know most of them don't care for this hobby.

From people I know, and that's a lot of people, only 2 (including me) are somewhat keen on HD, everyone else are happy with SD and thought there isn't much difference between the two format. Go figure!! But at least no one can stand VHS PQ though.

 

[dobyblue]

I think that anyone that upgraded to DVD from VHS will also upgrade to Blu-ray from DVD at a similar point in time.

If someone bought their first DVD player in 2006, they're very likely to buy their first Blu-ray Disc player in 2015, unless they buy a PS3.

You certainly didn't have to be an AV enthusiast to buy DVD and you certainly won't have to be an enthusiast either to pick up Blu-ray as it enters its 6th and 7th years.

 

[dobyblue]

I agree - prices need to fall for mass acceptance. To think, for a second, that pricing won't fall, would be foolish and unsubstantiated over the long term based upon the history of consumer electronics pricing. How long it takes? That's a different story.

Absolutely agreed and it's amazing how few people seem to acknowledge what seems to me to be a rather obvious fact.

Despite claims to the contrary, I can't seem to find anywhere that a Blu-ray disc fan was touting that mass market adoption would happen almost instantaneously upon the end of the format war, yet I constantly see claims from anti-BD folk that the big mass adoption that was promised has yet to materialize.

It's a joke quite frankly and a lot of people look foolish because of it. I think most BD fans hope that Blu-ray will be accepted in a similar timeframe as DVD was. 4 years to capture 50% of the retail market and 7 years to capture 50% of the rental market. The fact that you can get 42" plasma's and LCD's for under $900 in places where J6P shops like Costco and the upcoming change in broadcasting only strengthen the opportunities for another physical disc to be mainstream.

 

[Dezoris]

Get the prices of Blu-Ray disks closer to DVDs and it will further slower DVD sales.

Everyone I know with BluRay holds off on buying movies because paying 10-15$ more for it currently is not worth it.

 

[j_garcia]

In the last 2 weeks I have picked up about 12 tiles, all $15 or under, on sales. A few were just $12. Yes, the "normal" price does need to come down, but that will still take some time. It isn't like DVDs were cheap in the first few years either; it took a while for them to drop to the point where they were not much more than VHS.