I would say that very few people are interested in replacing their DVD collection with HD movies. Unlike VHS, these players are backwards compatible with DVD, so the really big interest is going to come with new releases - not catalogs.
In which case, BD owns about 80% of the market after the WB switch around June.
Universal & Paramount both have some very significant films, but they also have to look at bottom lines and what their exclusivity may be costing them in the long run. Since I refuse to buy DVD or HD DVD, that means that they are losing sales from me, at the very least. But, with most news channels of reputation stepping up to call Blu-ray the winner, it will drive far more consumers out to buy players who may have otherwise been fence sitters.
Likewise, it will ensure that those who may have been thinking red, are now going to, at the very least, hop back up on the fence and not buy at all.
No, there is no question that HD DVD exactly where it was 18 months ago at format release: Down to many CE companies, and down to many studios. WHICH RESULTS IN: Far more consumer confidence and brand recognition by average consumers, and far more shelf space on retail floors.
The general consumer who walks in off the street will buy Blu-ray because his favorite company supports it. Whether it be Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Sharp, Philips, Denon, Marantz, or Samsung. They all have players out (or coming) and the option is Toshiba or Onkyo. Neither of which are really considered 'mainstream' manufacturers. Store sales personel may be able to corroborate this statement with what they have seen in store.
The INFORMED consumer will do a bit of research and then look at what they want from the releases already out, and those coming up. About thirty minutes of research will show phenomenal pricing on HD DVD, but only a select number of titles which will be coming available on the format, and strong suspicion that by years end, BD will have 100% studio support.
CE & studio support. It's what matters most, and it always has been.