We'd rather spend some money on speakers now, even if they won't be optimal, than get a soundbar that we'll stop using when I move and have a space for a real home theater system.
Your logic is good, but a budget of $400 for an AVR and 2 speakers doesn't fit within that logic. Rojo has been spending a lot of time to help you, but you seem resistant.
Let me sum it up:
1) $400 for an AVR & 2 speakers is on the low side.
2) Buying speakers that fit your cubby holes and sound good will be tough.
3) Buying speakers that fit your cubby holes, sound good and will make good surrounds later will be even tougher.
4) A good soundbar, ("TV base thingy"), will sound much better than junk speakers stuffed in the cubby holes.
5) A soundbar can be moved to another room, (bedroom, kitchen, etc), when you get a real system in your new house.
6) A subwoofer does not necessarily mean bothering the neighbors.
When you move in a year, are you confident you'll have extra $$$ to spend on a home theater? It may be possible the stuff you buy today is still used for some time after you move.
Here's my suggestion:
> Get a good soundbar w/ external subwoofer capability for now.
> Add a subwoofer when you have several hundred dollars available.
> Retire the soundbar to another room when you have $$$ for a HT.