The magic word: "free", as long as it's "free" consumers will use it. When they start to charge for TV episodes, it'll fall flat. There will always be a market for physical media, as long as people are smart enough to realize that it's cheaper in the long run. If you watch movies over and over (what A/V'er doesn't) physical media wins hands down, if your a casual user then VOD will win out. One problem I see with VOD is availability, what if a movie that you like wasn't popular or it's an obscure 1950s sci-fi flick and the provider deems it's not "important" enough to take up space, then you're out of luck.