Snow... It's April

[TLS Guy]

Sure is a long winter, got another inch or so of snow today so everthing is whte. We kinda missed out on spring this year with below normal temps for the past three weeks, hopefully this will end soon!

PDawg, nice Airedale ... does he/she like the pool?

Steve

I think, that in Manitoba you are somewhat underestimating this year's flood potential. I don't live in the Red River watershed any more, but close to it in West Hubbard county. The divide to the Red Lake watershed, which is part of the Red Watershed is at Bagley 50 miles away in Clearwater county. The divide to the Ottertail River watershed, one of the two major stems of the Red, is in neighboring Becker county. I have also driven to Grand Forks recently.

The nearby Red watershed has had very similar conditions as here, now with over 80" of very wet snow falls.

The first sign of the melt in the Southern Red watershed is just beginning on the Buffalo River. The Red at Fargo has not moved yet, but the Mayor has ordered the filling another 500,000 sand bags, in addition to the 1.3 million already in storage.

It is true the snow pack between Fargo and Grand Forks has been less, but they had moisture this weekend and will get more. The Sheyenne River in ND has picked up a lot of moisture recently.

My friends north of Grand Forks tell me there is more snow and much more moisture content than the before the Great Flood of 1997.

Also Saskatewan has picked up a lot of moisture recently, putting the Assiniboine River back into play.

Of course your wonderful floodway will almost certainly again save Winnipeg, but I fear for those on the Red south of the floodway. I think you may be in for an interesting ride.

I have to say, that for all the criticism heaped on your flood fighters in the blogs, I think you fight floods much more vigorously and intelligently than we do south of the border.

The American Army Corps of engineers are a long way from the brightest bulbs on the block, and I got a chance to observe them up close in the 1997 flood. Their only good sensible decisions made about protecting our medical center, were only made at the eleventh hour and under extreme external pressure.

What are seeing around Winnipeg, and do you have any pictures to share?

 

[avnetguy]

The red river hasn't risen much in the past few weeks, the melt off is very slow and is just starting now. I see the red river level every day when taking the dog out and so far it is only about the normal summer level based on the height up the river bank. Starting this week the high temps are just above freezing so the melt is going much faster. I'll likely see that the river has risen tonight when I go out.

They are saying here that the soil moisture content is low but the snow amount is higher than normal. If we get normal or lower rain/snow over the next few weeks they say the flooding will be minimal.

Steve

 

[TLS Guy]

The red river hasn't risen much in the past few weeks, the melt off is very slow and is just starting now. I see the red river level every day when taking the dog out and so far it is only about the normal summer level based on the height up the river bank. Starting this week the high temps are just above freezing so the melt is going much faster. I'll likely see that the river has risen tonight when I go out.

They are saying here that the soil moisture content is low but the snow amount is higher than normal. If we get normal or lower rain/snow over the next few weeks they say the flooding will be minimal.

Steve

That is strange that the River is rising in Winnipeg before Fargo or Grand Forks. I have never heard of that in the forty or so years I have lived here. However this winter and especially this Spring is a massive outlier in many respects so anything is possible

The Red in Fargo and Grand Forks has not even budged yet. I check the gauge data daily.

I will be surprised if you don't get significant flooding, but it will be close to June.

This is the coldest Spring since 1881 here, as we will pass that benchmark tomorrow handily and then it will be the coldest. We are in unprecedented territory as my friend at the NOAA weather station in Grand Forks keeps reminding me. He tells me he has sent warnings to your people in Winnipeg.

Watch Fargo over the next two weeks. Those events will be very significant.

 

[ParadigmDawg]

We hit 90 degrees today.

 

[adk highlander]

We hit 90 degrees today.

Comments and pictures like this make me wish we had an unthank button.

 

[TLS Guy]

We hit 90 degrees today.

We hit 36 degrees!

 

[TLS Guy]

The red river hasn't risen much in the past few weeks, the melt off is very slow and is just starting now. I see the red river level every day when taking the dog out and so far it is only about the normal summer level based on the height up the river bank. Starting this week the high temps are just above freezing so the melt is going much faster. I'll likely see that the river has risen tonight when I go out.

They are saying here that the soil moisture content is low but the snow amount is higher than normal. If we get normal or lower rain/snow over the next few weeks they say the flooding will be minimal.

Steve

Just posted!

The weather station in Grand Forks agree that the current situation requires new modelling. I have been telling my friend that the models are at variance with what I see in the ground.

The new reporting will be up Friday. Follow it. The dominant portion of the Red River watershed is in Minnesota, especially that big lobe out to Fergus Falls and the Detroit Lakes area.

I hope your flood forecasters pay attention, or they will be caught flat footed.

I'm close to 100% certain you will not be looking at a minimal flood, but it will be the latest since 1776. That year the Red did not return to its banks in Winnipeg until July 14.

Another post just in from NOAA.

There are no 50 degree temps forecast for Fargo in the next seven days. So that will move the first 50 degree day out to April 24 at least. In 1950 the first 50 degree day in Fargo was April 15. That year the Red in Winnipeg burst its banks on the night of May1 with catastrophic results, that lead to the construction of your floodway. That is why I maintain your high water will be well into May.

 

[avnetguy]

I'm in the city so no worries here but there is always concern for the towns/farmers south of us. I'm sure the flood forecast people do the job to the best of their abilities and will act accordingly when needed. They are all saying the weather now plays the biggest role so its a wait and see. Got a good view of the river bank tonight (snow is gone so its easier to see the level) and we're still below the summer normals but it does look like the local runoff is slowly rising the level.

Steve

 

[TLS Guy]

I'm in the city so no worries here but there is always concern for the towns/farmers south of us. I'm sure the flood forecast people do the job to the best of their abilities and will act accordingly when needed. They are all saying the weather now plays the biggest role so its a wait and see. Got a good view of the river bank tonight (snow is gone so its easier to see the level) and we're still below the summer normals but it does look like the local runoff is slowly rising the level.

Steve

That is interesting, that your snow is gone. Ours is anything but gone.

This is the entrance to our private road, Ladyslipper Drive today.

Although not the Red watershed, it looks like that through most of the watershed and I understand worse North of Grand Forks to Pembina/Emerson at the US Canadian border.

If you had less snow pack around Winnipeg then you might luck out by having your local flow pass before the big event.

I know you won't have trouble in Winnipeg, but it seems to me that Morris, St Agathe and communities south of the diversion structure at St. Norbert must be vulnerable.

I saw pictures of Selkirk on CBC of them breaking ice a few days ago near the diversion drop off and it looked to me as if there was a lot of snow there.

This is a odd year for sure.

 

[avnetguy]

The snow was gone from just the river bank, still a fair bit around the city. All roads are mostly clear/dry and maybe about half of the lawns are showing now. Local parks are mostly snow covered but going down fast now. It does look like the ground is soaking up much of the melt which is good news, less heading into the storm sewers leading to the river.

Morris has a very good ring dike setup, so do most other smaller towns in the south so hopefully they'll hold again if needed. We usually take a drive up to the lockport/selkirk area when the ice breaks, it can be quite a sight, especially when standing on one of the bridges and big pieces of ice ram it.

Steve

 

[ParadigmDawg]

Comments and pictures like this make me wish we had an unthank button.

Most of my comments make everyone wish there was an un-thank button.

A better solution would be to hop on a plane and head here. I will road bike, mountain bike and golf with you. Bring a thin short sleeve shirt and shorts as it's going to be hot and humid.

 

[adk highlander]

Going on 4 years with no real vacation so you don't know how good that sounds. I'm hoping to get my crap together over the coming months so I can take advantage of offers like that.

 

[ParadigmDawg]

Going on 4 years with no real vacation so you don't know how good that sounds. I'm hoping to get my crap together over the coming months so I can take advantage of offers like that.

There's really no need to have your crap together if you are coming to see me. It will be way more beneficial to get your crap together after you get back home...

 

[Midwesthonky]

I know it's not snow...but anyone see the pictures of Chicago with the Edens, Ryan, and Eisenhower (sp?) freeways all shut down due to flooding?

It's been raining so much even the ducks are getting sick of it. Saw a goose walking around with an umbrella...

 

[macddmac]

There's really no need to have your crap together if you are coming to see me. It will be way more beneficial to get your crap together after you get back home...

I want to party with that dude!

 

[TLS Guy]

It has snowed all day here and over most of Minnesota. We are getting much more snow than forecast and with a wind with it. More snow and sleet for the weekend. Probably will warm up next weekend.

Flood forecast for the Red River of the North as of yesterday, is dire. A greater than 95% chance of major flooding predicted for most spots along the Red.

Yesterday Fargo ordered 7 high end homes in a wealthy subdivision demolished to make way for a temporary clay dike. They are down already today, before their owners had time to pick up a phone to call their lawyers. Fargo is in full flood fighting mode.

 

[avnetguy]

At least the colder temps are helping the flood situation, if they go up to normal or higher anytime soon things could get real ugly, like in '97. All we can hope for is more cold and no rain or snow for the next month, fingers crossed.

Steve

 

[Midwesthonky]

It has snowed all day here and over most of Minnesota. We are getting much more snow than forecast and with a wind with it. More snow and sleet for the weekend. Probably will warm up next weekend.

Flood forecast for the Red River of the North as of yesterday, is dire. A greater than 95% chance of major flooding predicted for most spots along the Red.

Yesterday Fargo ordered 7 high end homes in a wealthy subdivision demolished to make way for a temporary clay dike. They are down already today, before their owners had time to pick up a phone to call their lawyers. Fargo is in full flood fighting mode.

Here's a link to the latest article on Fargo conditions. Bad part is that all goes north. So what Fargo gets, Grand Forks and eventually Winnipeg will get.
Fargo Steps Up Flood Protection Efforts - Valley News Live - KVLY/KXJB - Fargo/Grand Forks

The family up that way isn't in bad shape, but their route home gets cut off when the flooding starts. A gravel road they take traditionally gets wiped out by one of the tributaries to the Red. That adds a good 20-30 minutes of drive time for them. If things get bad enough, I'll pull some vacation time and go help them. But so far, they'll be ok where their house is located.

At least Winnipeg has that diversion. Grand Forks was very aggressive in address the main problem areas after '97. Fargo...not so aggressive. Heck, they'll probably be arguing about the Fargo diversion for another 10 years. But then, we are talking the Corps of Engineers which is subject to the political whims and waves of politicians.

 

[Soccerkid830]

Rained last night, turned into sleet, turned into snow over night. Been snowing since then, schools are closing at 12:30 with blizzard warnings due to 30-50 mph wind gusts with snowfall in excess of 2" per hour.

Supposed to get another few inches today, then another 4-8" on Monday.

Radar right now. Then I got an ironic captcha to type in when uploading the picture. Thought it was kinda funny.

 

[Soccerkid830]

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! Been snowing for a good 6 hours straight now and still goin strong. Too bad the ski hills are closed and I'm not the type to hike a hill