The "Beginning of the End" for DVD, BluRay As Online Viewing Surpasses Physical Media

[BoredSysAdmin]

A new study from IHS claims that 2012 will be the first year ever that more movies are streamed or purchased online than are viewed via physical media (DVD, BluRay). Legal, paid-for consumption of movies online in the U.S. alone will reach 3.4 billion views, compared to 2.4 billion for physical video. The natural growth runs in contrast to movie industry efforts to try and salvage physical media sales through sometimes obnoxious and artificial means (like 56 day new release delays). "We are looking at the beginning of the end of the age of movies on physical media like DVD and Blu-ray," says an IHS analyst.

Source:
The "Beginning of the End" for DVD, BluRay - As Online Viewing Surpasses Physical Media Viewing | DSLReports.com, ISP Information
Report: Americans Watch More Paid Video On-Line Than on Physical Media

 

[GlocksRock]

If things keep going the way they are now, what is going to happen when we start getting 4k tvs in home? There is no way we will have enough badnwidth to stream 4k, we can barely do 1080p now and even with that we don't even get losless audio. We will still need some type of physical media to take full advantage of the latest greatest audio/video formats.

 

[j_garcia]

I am actually surprised sometimes at how good the quality of streamed media is, however that is not 100% of the time in most cases and not with everything. The studios have started trying to push "ultraviolet" that has physical media (blu-ray) but is stored in the cloud also. So the new model could eventually be downloads for the best video and audio, which is not streaming but still requires bandwidth and storage. You download it during the day and watch it at night not unlike what PSN currently offers.

 

[Hocky]

If things keep going the way they are now, what is going to happen when we start getting 4k tvs in home? There is no way we will have enough badnwidth to stream 4k, we can barely do 1080p now and even with that we don't even get losless audio. We will still need some type of physical media to take full advantage of the latest greatest audio/video formats.

The 1080p that is streamed now is heavily compressed garbage. We're a long way out from bluray quality streaming let alone anything that surpasses that.

You download it during the day and watch it at night not unlike what PSN currently offers.

This is an acceptable solution for me until you factor in that your ISP is going to cap you and you'll only be able to play like 5 movies per month before you hit your bandwidth cap.

 

[3db]

I am actually surprised sometimes at how good the quality of streamed media is, however that is not 100% of the time in most cases and not with everything. The studios have started trying to push "ultraviolet" that has physical media (blu-ray) but is stored in the cloud also. So the new model could eventually be downloads for the best video and audio, which is not streaming but still requires bandwidth and storage. You download it during the day and watch it at night not unlike what PSN currently offers.

Wait until everyone starts streaming and then take a look at PQ. It will be noticeably worse as traffic congestion begins to build. I still want the physical media at hand.

 

[j_garcia]

This is an acceptable solution for me until you factor in that your ISP is going to cap you and you'll only be able to play like 5 movies per month before you hit your bandwidth cap.

Absolutely this will be an issue. As things shift to more streaming and less broadcast though, that will most likely change. ISPs will be the new "cable" companies.

Wait until everyone starts streaming and then take a look at PQ. It will be noticeably worse as traffic congestion begins to build. I still want the physical media at hand.

Well, that's a problem no matter what.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Absolutely this will be an issue. As things shift to more streaming and less broadcast though, that will most likely change. ISPs will be the new "cable" companies.

And that is exactly the problem since biggest ISP in this county is cable providers and they see netflix as their enemy...

Latest example : Comcast (250gb plan limit) just announced that their Xfinity app on xbox 360 streaming app will not count against the your cap, while Netflix will

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2012/03/comcast-xbox-360-on-demand-streams-wont-count-against-data-caps.ars

 

[Hocky]

And that is exactly the problem since biggest ISP in this county is cable providers and they see netflix as their enemy...

Latest example : Comcast (250gb plan limit) just announced that their Xfinity app on xbox 360 streaming app will not count against the your cap, while Netflix will

Comcast: Xbox 360 On Demand streams won't count against data caps

Not to mention that bandwidth is not only not free, but not at all cheap. It is hard for these companies to grow to accomodate internet streaming needs.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Not to mention that bandwidth is not only not free, but not at all cheap. It is hard for these companies to grow to accomodate internet streaming needs.

False, IP traffic is dirt cheap and getting cheaper by the year - it's that last mile deployment is what expensive. It's hard for ISP to reinvest back in the infrastructure, instead of just complain and pocket the large margins

 

[Hocky]

False, IP traffic is dirt cheap and getting cheaper by the year - it's that last mile deployment is what expensive. It's hard for ISP to reinvest back in the infrastructure, instead of just complain and pocket the large margins

When is the last time that you priced real connectivity? I would think that judging by your nick, you should have an idea of what it actually costs to deploy bandwidth. My bandwidth bill is six figures per month and I don't have a lot of bandwidth. It is absolutely not cheap. We're running out of dark fiber quickly and all of these higher speeds mean constant backend equipment overhauls that are millions of dollars per transaction.

 

[GlocksRock]

The 1080p that is streamed now is heavily compressed garbage. We're a long way out from bluray quality streaming let alone anything that surpasses that.

My point exactly... long live physical media! Plus what if there is an internet outage in my area, then I won't be able to watch anything, and I won't ever truly own the movie, just the right to stream it whenever I want, assuming whoever is hosting it doesn't go out of business and then I have to buy it again from somewhere else. I'd rather have the disc so I can rip it and convert it to whatever format I want so I can watch it on whatever device I want without having to pay extra.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

When is the last time that you priced real connectivity? I would think that judging by your nick, you should have an idea of what it actually costs to deploy bandwidth.

Thanks for proving my point:

it's that last mile deployment is what expensive.

My bandwidth bill is six figures per month and I don't have a lot of bandwidth. It is absolutely not cheap. We're running out of dark fiber quickly and all of these higher speeds mean constant backend equipment overhauls that are millions of dollars per transaction.

Our Telco bills have been in 6 digits range for quite a while, but IP part of it rather small. Instead of running SUPER expensive point to point we use AboveNet MPLS layer 2 (private circuit). From NY to UK we get pretty consistent 65-68ms. Local 100/100Mb fiber hand-off from Cogent for internet traffic only cost us under $1000/month

You company may have completely different requirements - it all depends on biz type.


About IP Traffic costs:
http://erg.ec.europa.eu/doc/berec/oecd/oecd_scottmarcus.pdf

 

[j_garcia]

My point exactly... long live physical media! Plus what if there is an internet outage in my area, then I won't be able to watch anything, and I won't ever truly own the movie, just the right to stream it whenever I want, assuming whoever is hosting it doesn't go out of business and then I have to buy it again from somewhere else. I'd rather have the disc so I can rip it and convert it to whatever format I want so I can watch it on whatever device I want without having to pay extra.

That's what ultraviolet is going after. You get physical media AND a streamed copy, but it also costs more. Grooming you to get rid of physical media. If you can download it, then you won't have physical but you will have a local copy. As I said in another thread, I am not sold on this idea yet.

Something they are talking about with providers of content now for mobile devices is to have the provider cover the cost of your data usage while using their service. Most likely this is the model that will be adopted for home as well, so it will end up being in the best interest of the companies to promote those "last mile" upgrades. You want to stream something from Netflix? You already have an account that you pay for except now it includes their cost for your data, which is of course negotiated with the ISPs.

 

[Hocky]

Our Telco bills have been in 6 digits range for quite a while, but IP part of it rather small. Instead of running SUPER expensive point to point we use AboveNet MPLS layer 2 (private circuit). From NY to UK we get pretty consistent 65-68ms. Local 100/100Mb fiber hand-off from Cogent for internet traffic only cost us under $1000/month

We use a variety of circuits at a variety of costs, but you guys have it quite good where you're at as far as cost goes. We pay way more than $1000/mo just for a 20/20 internet. Hell, we have some locations that are >$1000/mo for 1.5mbit to our mpls. lol

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

We use a variety of circuits at a variety of costs, but you guys have it quite good where you're at as far as cost goes. We pay way more than $1000/mo just for a 20/20 internet. Hell, we have some locations that are >$1000/mo for 1.5mbit to our mpls. lol

That's true, some places and countries internet is still a luxury
But we are not the luckiest yet - in Singapore $(sg)399/m [or $(us) 317] gets you 1 Gbps speed
M1

 

[Hocky]

That's true, some places and countries internet is still a luxury
But we are not the luckiest yet - in Singapore $(sg)399/m [or $(us) 317] gets you 1 Gbps speed
M1

Yea, but its in Singapore, they can't hit anything with a solid enough connection to ever actually have to provide even 10% of their rated speed because all of the good stuff is a hell of a long trip. haha ;-)

 

[Nestor]

The convenience of downloads trumps the performance advantages of physical media.

MP3's are a prime example.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

The convenience of downloads trumps the performance advantages of physical media.

MP3's are a prime example.

Luke, Do not underestimate the power of Instant gratification
In general I agree with my fellow AH geeks - I love the quality of physical BD, but we are nothing but a tiny minority - a VAST majority thinks Netflix current SD streaming is good enough for casual viewing and lets face it - it's almost a DVD quality which was a gold standard not that long a ago and was a huge step up from VHS quality.

 

[3db]

False, IP traffic is dirt cheap and getting cheaper by the year - it's that last mile deployment is what expensive. It's hard for ISP to reinvest back in the infrastructure, instead of just complain and pocket the large margins

Either way, the bottom line is traffic congestion will make for poor picture quality (worse than a standard DVD) and these ridiculous caps in place will cause high charges. The only people winniing are the carriers. No thanks to this BS video streaming. I'll stick to the good old fashion bluray for as long as I can. Let them stick convience over quality up someone else's as?. I'm not bending over yet.

 

[j_garcia]

Either way, the bottom line is traffic congestion will make for poor picture quality (worse than a standard DVD) and these ridiculous caps in place will cause high charges. The only people winniing are the carriers. No thanks to this BS video streaming. I'll stick to the good old fashion bluray for as long as I can. Let them stick convience over quality up someone else's as?. I'm not bending over yet.

I have never had a problem getting at least 720p over DSL at my other house (that is the best we have out there in the boonies) and typically get good quality 1080p on Comcast here on both my Roku and PS3. So basically, it is about as good as upscaled DVD and takes up no space in my room. Streaming can definitely replace DVD for me, but not BD both for PQ and AQ. I have started buying a LOT fewer discs now though; maybe 1-2 every 3 months.

The convenience of downloads trumps the performance advantages of physical media.

MP3's are a prime example.

To the average consumer. And of course, the average consumer are the majority.