Is 2012 the Year of Super-Thin OLED Displays?

[j_garcia]

I am not saying OLED won't catch on. No doubt OLED is the likely future of the common display, but we aren't talking about them replacing LCD by the end of the year. Maybe in 2 years time they will be more common and at a lower cost. The fact that they have been saying CRT quality on a panel thinner than an LCD while also using less energy is certainly impressive, but things like this are also not so simple. As the big manufacturers start to put more money towards it, the technology will progress much faster and they are just starting to do that.

I already read the article about Samsung also showing a 55" display and that article specifically said "not ready for the mass market", but it WILL be shown at CES. As your linked article said, OLED has been shown at CES for years...

Also linked in your article is the "clearing the roadblocks for OLED" (I didn't read the whole thing). The number one factor being that they are JUST NOW able to produce displays capable of mass production. The second, and this one is definitely a big point, is that there are no fabs setup to do this mass production yet abd that is the biggest way to bring cost down(no plant, no product). Someone has to build the equipment to go in those fabs to do said production. Large scale fabs take 1-2 years to get up and running, and the equipment they are producing the current ones on are likely still prototype machines.

A plus will hopefully be that the equipment to make the OLEDs will be less expensive than current LCD gear. Any idea how big of a piece of equipment it takes to "inkjet" a 55" display is? we aren't talking about something that sits on your desk. Let's just say I could park a few cars inside the footprint of one. And the LCD process equipment is even larger than that. One machine for LCD for the current average size of 46-55" panel is about the size of an average home.

I bought stock in an OLED start up almost 10yrs ago. I never got a return on that money, but maybe if I had left it in, it might be worth something now. I've also been working, directly for 5 years previous and indirectly for the last 5 years, in the flat panel display industry making all that equipment. Granted, I haven't followed OLED so closely of late.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Nah, the future is OLET, no OLED.

 

[lsiberian]

I am not saying OLED won't catch on. No doubt OLED is the likely future of the common display, but we aren't talking about them replacing LCD by the end of the year. Maybe in 2 years time they will be more common and at a lower cost.

Well it did take LCD a long time to mature. OLED will be no different. In 10 years it will probably be king, but these things do take time. That being said my next phone will have an OLED screen.

 

[j_garcia]

Phones having OLED screens is a totally different thing Small ones aren't a problem, and my previous and current phone are OLED, over the last 4 years.

 

[ramprun]

currently blue oled has shorter half-life time compared to green and red Oled. it will require constant calibration to get the color balance. as the blue oled aged, one would need to increase the blue higher and therefore shorten its life-time further. a phone that has relatively short usage time each day may last 4 yrs but i doubt that an oled tv would.

 

[ArchitechJk]

"Sony's experiment with OLED bombed fantastically a couple years ago and they have since abandoned it in 2010. It was too soon, too small, and too expensive."

Too expensive for consumers, but a good early test. BUT- you should know that Sony has been selling 25 inch OLEDs for months- their professional broadcast and production monitor models have been revamped in 2011 as OLED models. Check out the Sony Professional and Broadcast web site.

Gee-could this be why Sony sold off their part of the LCD partnership with Samsung?

 

[cpp]

Gee-could this be why Sony sold off their part of the LCD partnership with Samsung

I think it had something to do with $940 million dollars they got from Samsung with the S-LCD selloff Dec 2011. The transaction, which allows Sony to purchase LCD panels from Samsung at market prices without bearing the responsibility and costs of operating the facility that manufactures them, is expected to save the company some $640 million a year.

 

[wiyosaya]

I am not saying OLED won't catch on. No doubt OLED is the likely future of the common display, but we aren't talking about them replacing LCD by the end of the year. Maybe in 2 years time they will be more common and at a lower cost.
...

My bet is the curve will be faster than it was when plasma / LCD first made their way on to the market.

I have worked in the large format printing industry, and know how big a 60" inkjet printer is; quite a bit smaller than what you describe, however, that printer is something that smaller shops would use rather than a shop that mass-produces 60" posters.

I understand that there are still challenges. In the long run, I think the challenges are somewhat less than any other display technology so far, and are likely to allow the technology to mature more quickly than previous generation display technologies did.

BTW - Sony has announced that they are getting out of the consumer OLED market.

 

[j_garcia]

My bet is the curve will be faster than it was when plasma / LCD first made their way on to the market.

I have worked in the large format printing industry, and know how big a 60" inkjet printer is; quite a bit smaller than what you describe, however, that printer is something that smaller shops would use rather than a shop that mass-produces 60" posters.

The difference there is likely the fact that OLEDs need to be produced in a vacuum which makes the equipment something quite different right off the bat. A poster likely needs a certain level of "clean" but that is handled in the room with filtration to keep particles that might settle on the final product to a minimum. OLEDs however, are obviously electronic devices and require a much different environment than a poster since even a microscopic piece of dust could create a panel that is less than perfect if not unsuable, not unlike an LCD.

I understand that there are still challenges. In the long run, I think the challenges are somewhat less than any other display technology so far, and are likely to allow the technology to mature more quickly than previous generation display technologies did.

I agree, if it takes off, it will likely be adopted faster than LCD. LCD has been around for something like 30 years already though, and nearly all of the advancements in that technology are relatively recent in terms of its lifespan.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

LG 55-inch OLED TV first video and pictures

LG 55-inch OLED TV first video and pictures | The Verge

 

[wiyosaya]

I agree, if it takes off, it will likely be adopted faster than LCD. LCD has been around for something like 30 years already though, and nearly all of the advancements in that technology are relatively recent in terms of its lifespan.

I am not so sure it is an IF as opposed to a "when". LG is certainly going through the motions to produce consumer OLED TVs - though they have not released yet as we all know.

Samsung has been talking OLED for a few years now; they were originally targeting 2014 - if I am not mistaken. LGs OLED activity may be forcing Samsung to market sooner.

Panasonic has announced that it is getting back into the business and has ordered equipment for a gen 8.5 production plant.

Flexible OLEDs are another application of the technology that is coming close to commercialization.

As far as what I am aware of, the only thing on the table that might be considered a next-gen technology beyond OLED are Quantum Dot OLED TVs.

Certainly, neither of us can say what will happen in the future. I'll bet that display technology will be exciting the next few years.

 

[j_garcia]

The Flexible one is actually the type of technology I bought the stock in because I thought it was a great idea.

SED was another technology that didn't go anywhere really once Cannon dropped it.

 

[wiyosaya]

The Flexible one is actually the type of technology I bought the stock in because I thought it was a great idea.

SED was another technology that didn't go anywhere really once Cannon dropped it.

Flexible seems to have come a long way since then. It is unfortunate that your venture did not work out. Personally, I think it is still a great idea. People intent on the "thin" thing would probably like it as some current flexible OLED displays are about 1/4 of a millimeter thick.

I had my eye on SED for quite a while. The IP dispute behind it's demise is unfortunate. Poor decision on the part of the company who owned SED IP, IMHO.

 

[wiyosaya]

One last post and I'll be quiet.

Samsung has announced their 55" OLED set (warning, the link is full of marketing blather that is hopefully true ) and it is set to go on sale in Q2 or Q3 of 2012. No pricing details yet.

IMHO, this is good news. Hopefully, the competition between LG and Samsung will serve to bring prices down. I am not, however, counting on the price coming down to current 55" LCD / Plasma prices in the near term even though that would be nice.