When will standard DVD go extinct?

[3db]

I don't think too many formats ever entirely go extinct, they just become niche markets Laser disc players were still being manufactured up until last year.

Except VHS. I really don't think there are any new releases on that format. VHS, 8track and the casette I think are the way of the dodo. Laser disc was a medium that didn't wear out when played so I'm not surprised it lasted as long as it did.

 

[markw]

Boom boom boom, another one bites the dust.

I guess we can thank digital downloading for this.

Again I must ask, how many downloaders (in the real world, not here) really give a rat's patootie about SQ?

 

[3db]

Yeah I posted this already... However, CD like vinyl will never die

http://forums.audioholics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=782185&postcount=265

 

[markw]

Yeah I posted this already... However, CD like vinyl will never die

http://forums.audioholics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=782185&postcount=265

OK, you win, but not everyone reads every post in every forum. To me, this is a pleasurable diversion, not an obsession.

 

[sholling]

I guess we can thank digital downloading for this.

Again I must ask, how many downloaders (in the real world, not here) really give a rat's patootie about SQ?

I buy and download flacs from HD Tracks. It's a bit overpriced but I buy 24/48, 24/88 and 24/96 flacs and CDs can't compete with that. They've even been talking about 24/192.

But let's cut to the chase with the industry. By the industry's own numbers out of a $15 CD $1 goes to the artist out of which comes recording costs and other promotional expenses, then another $0.50 goes to the song writers. Another $1-1.50 goes into the CD and jewel box. That's why artists are starting to self publish, well that and they get to keep ownership of their own music if they self publish. That's also why the labels just got hit with a $45M settlement for stealing music from artists that wouldn't sign with them. The labels simply priced themselves out of the market playing too little to the artists and charging the customer too much and refuse to adjust their business model and prices to reflect changes in the market and technology.

 

[sholling]

I ask that you not fall into the trap.

The trap I'm referring to is mistaking today's prices for authoring, producing, and releasing any title on Blu-ray to remain stagnant. While DVD is cheap, and Blu-ray is more expensive, you can bet that in a number of years - perhaps just 3 or 4, it may hold almost zero cost benefit to release a film on DVD, and may actually hurt sales if there is not a Blu-ray version available.

I'm a techie and unlikely to ever fall into that trap but we aren't there yet. It may be 5 years or more before the cost of producing BDs drops to the level of DVDs. If you think back all the way 2 years ago that was the sole advantage of HDDVD - production costs were the same as DVD and the DVD side would play on a DVD player. A lot of production equipment will still have to be replaced at great expense.

Forbidden Planet? Heck, Star Wars is coming out earlier on Blu-ray than it did on DVD. At this point, older films often need to be remastered to even come out in HD and look good. So, I don't think we can use any one film (especially older films) as any type of basis.

We already discussed the games being played with Star Wars and the LOTR and let's not forget Blade Runner with its umpteenth release. Old movies are going to take decades to be updated and while we're on the subject Amazon still offers Forbidden Planet on VHS.

New films - when they are all HD, and are all showing up on Blu-ray, across the board, are going to continue to drive BD forward. The technologies will be refind, and BD-Rs will drop in price more and more. Before you know it, you will buy a 10 pack for $5 and AOL will be sending you BDs to use as coasters.

It's just going to take a lot of years. BDR-50 blanks (~$10-15ea) have a long way to go and sit at the Catch-22 price point. The price is too high for sales to take off and production costs can't drop until sales volumes go up 1000 fold. But I agree there will reach a point where studio BD production will get cheap enough to have every film release on BD and DVD. It's just not there yet and enough old DVD players will remain in service to justify continuing to produce DVDs for 5-10 more years.

Really though, the fact that DVDs do play in BD players is one of the key reasons DVD will hang on for so long. Yet, at some point, studios will just recognize that DVD sales aren't keeping pace and aren't making them a lot of money (or any money?) and that is when DVD will be on it's final tour.

The time will come just not for 5-10 years.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Sholling - I think we are on the same page. As for HD DVD, I will just say that a lot of talk about how chepa HD DVD was to make was brought up, but actual release figures from production houses had HD DVD and Blu-ray within pennies per unit in production costs, and the sales on discs were far stronger for Blu-ray. Any cost advantage, on discs that typically ran about 50 cents a pop, were minimal and not actually delivered to customers. This was one of the HD DVD myths that were never reality. Likewise, while a DVD line could be converted to a HD DVD line, the tolerances which HD DVD required actually ended up costing FAR more than originally expected, so the new BD lines weren't truly that much more expensive.

HD DVD had a lot going for it, but price was not one of those things. Also worth noting that flipper discs usually cost $5.00 more than the 'more expensive to produce' (???) Blu-ray disc with only the BD copy and artwork. Just trying to clarify, as what you are saying was never the case, even though claims were often made, actual pricing proved almost all claims to be false. But, HD DVD is not the point here and Blu-ray is doing okay. Not great as it has a lot more competition than even HD DVD was putting out with VOD, downloads, and a lot of online content.

 

[digicidal]

I like to think that Blu-ray won the format war because everyone still felt guilty about Betamax.

OK, so I don't actually believe that for a second, but it's still a fun notion. I would say that downloading is only part of the death of CDs and totally agree with Sholling on that point. In fact, the ever-expanding costs of buying CDs all but eliminated buying new several years ago... luckily there are numerous great used stores here with fantastic selection (I think I've already worn out 3 Zia membership cards).

When the production costs peaked and dropped off in the 90's I would have had a very different view of the future - but I saw the writing on the wall as soon as the average cost had gone back to the same prices I saw when I worked at Tower Records back in 1990... only it was 10 years later.

The problem is also one of consumer awareness. When a similar trend occurred (and still is actually) in vinyl - it wasn't an issue. No one had the equipment to cut their own records in their house and you couldn't buy 100 blanks at every grocery and office supply store for $20 or less. When the consumer (even non-technical ones) knows that they can buy a blank CD for as little as .10/CD and can burn an album in their $60 CD-RW drive... it's very difficult to expect them to accept paying 150X that amount for the same thing with a printed booklet.

Note that I'm not saying the above is a rational viewpoint - obviously there are other costs involved in production - and I think most consumers are aware that they would have to pay more for a commercially produced CD than for a home-burn. However, I think if those costs were more inline with the actual economies of scale involved - which would be around $6-7 per CD - the migration to legal and illegal downloads would not have been nearly as precipitous as it has been.

 

[jliedeka]

At one time I read that audio CDs cost about $0.25 to produce including royalties. That's why those record clubs could stay in business selling discs to the savvier consumers for not much more than $1 apiece.

I'm not ready to give up physical media, I still buy CDs and SACDs. Despite the bewildering array of devices for streaming digital media, I haven't found a satisfactory solution for my system. I will have to work on that, though because I'm running out of shelf space.

Jim

 

[sholling]

At one time I read that audio CDs cost about $0.25 to produce including royalties. That's why those record clubs could stay in business selling discs to the savvier consumers for not much more than $1 apiece.

My data is way old. Not long after CDs took the record labels (this is from memory) broke down the expenses on a $15 CD ($12 or $13 wholesale price) as $1 for the artist, $0.50 for the song writer, $0.50 for the jewel case. In a much later expose` it was revealed that out of the artists' $1 came all production and promotional costs often leaving a new artist with a hit CD in hock to the record company until after the 3rd successful album. How much of that's true I don't know.

 

[picture_shooter]

DVD should be stable for plenty of years.

IMHO there are lot of BR's that were released that does not look any better then a dvd. SO until BR gets their chit together and actually put real effort in older movies onto BR, I say DvD still will stick around for lot more years.

Plus BRs are still expensive, unless they get down to the 10-15 dollar mark, it will be a stroll for the competition of owners really wanting to make the jump from DVD to BR player. Cheers

 

[BMXTRIX]

IMHO there are lot of BR's that were released that does not look any better then a dvd. SO until BR gets their chit together and actually put real effort in older movies onto BR, I say DvD still will stick around for lot more years.

Much of this is older films that didn't have the time put in to them. Most NEW releases, which makes up a huge percentage of disc sales, have a significant improvement on Blu-ray. So, I'm not sure how often you are doing an A-B comparison between a lot of current release, high-sales Blu-rays.

Plus BRs are still expensive, unless they get down to the 10-15 dollar mark, it will be a stroll for the competition of owners really wanting to make the jump from DVD to BR player. Cheers

I agree! So, a new release at $17...
http://www.amazon.com/Social-Network-Two-Disc-Collectors-Blu-ray/dp/B0034G4P7Q/ref=pd_nr_zgc_d_16295751_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&pf_rd_p=1261562062&pf_rd_s=right-5&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_i=193640011&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=0JYJSBCR1W13T4TMM9A9

Is to expensive when the DVD is $13.00?
http://www.amazon.com/Social-Network-Two-Disc-Collectors/dp/B0034G4P7G/ref=ed_oe_dvd

I'm not sure I agree with that and I'm not sure that if prices are already just a few bucks apart on new releases, that in 3-4 years we won't see them identically priced.

I mean, seriously... If you already own a Blu-ray player, and you have a choice between the $14.00 Blu-ray or the $14.00 DVD... which are you going to choose?

That is the magic point when DVD suddenly no longer makes sense to buy and DVD sales will drop significantly on new releases.

Still, for smaller films, they will need a ramp up of available BD production at great prices for small studios who want to do limited runs. I fully expect this to be just par for the course in technology.

 

[davidtwotrees]

Often it seems that people who buy a lot of movies assume that a lot of other people do, too. In my experience, the largest percentage of people do NOT buy movies. And that same large group is not enthralled with blu ray and it's uptick in pq. Most people I know are very happy with dvd quality.
I am not talking about Audioholics. I am talking about the majority of americans who don't have time in their daily lives to worry about technology upgrades in their video. DVD is here for a long, long time, methiniks. Unless a BIG tech jump shows up........

 

[KEW]

Often it seems that people who buy a lot of movies assume that a lot of other people do, too. In my experience, the largest percentage of people do NOT buy movies. And that same large group is not enthralled with blu ray and it's uptick in pq. Most people I know are very happy with dvd quality.
I am not talking about Audioholics. I am talking about the majority of americans who don't have time in their daily lives to worry about technology upgrades in their video. DVD is here for a long, long time, methiniks. Unless a BIG tech jump shows up........

I agree, DVD has a long life ahead of it - not especially glamorous, but plenty of years and probably many decades.

I think it is salient and a natural progression of this thread to ask what formats have become extinct and about when would you date their extinction?

I would submit that 78's, 45's, and 8-tracks have all become extinct. I may have included the standard LP on that list 8-10 years ago!
I couldn't begin to guess dates for these extinctions. Maybe '80 for 8-tracks?

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

How long has BD been around?

Yet, about 95% of all the people I know don't even own any BDs!

But everyone has an iPhone, iPad, and iPod.

 

[Nestor]

It appears to me, convenience trumps performance in most cases, unless the performance gain is significant. Blu-Ray isn't any more convenient than DVD.

A good example is mp3s. We all agree lossy compression is a regression in sound quality, but consumers flock to iTunes because they can impulsively download the latest Lady Gaga song with a swipe of their iPhone.

If anything, movie downloads/streaming will be the DVD-killer.

 

[jostenmeat]

SO until BR gets their chit together and actually put real effort in older movies onto BR, I say DvD still will stick around for lot more years.

I so strongly disagree with this sentence, I don't even know where to begin. Maybe I should try a few different genres of "older movies". How about Westerns, Musicals, and Horror/Thriller. The below are How The West Was Won, The Sound of Music, and Psycho. The Sound of Music DVD cap here is the BEST DVD version (way way way bigger difference had I selected one of the other DVD releases).

For other Westerns in particular, Pale Rider and The Searchers look phenomenal.

Well crap, how about Gone With The Wind?

I could actually go on and on and on, but I am already using up too much bandwidth here. Sorry.

We could just talk about Criterion titles only, and yet still have a lot to talk about.

Even IF* I had to pay 2x more for a BD (I don't), I am getting over 6x the visual information only in terms of resolution, and god knows what with audio.

Ok, I can't help it, a bonus comparison:

 

[BMXTRIX]

Awesome example (if a bit large!) Josten.

I think people don't get that STUDIOS don't want to make two formats and there will be a point when the only DVD player anyone can buy at all, will be a Blu-ray player (with DVD support). Then when they go to rent a movie, they will be able to get either DVD or Blu-ray for the SAME price. So, they get the Blu-ray. Then they may buy one or two titles, and they will BUY on Blu-ray for near the same price. Then Blu-rays will be the prevalent format at Redbox, Netflix, and other locations.

It isn't 'sudden' but it is gradual. My non-A/Vphile family is about halfway to owning Blu-ray players and using them. They aren't big disc buyers, but they do rent and now when they rent, it's usually on BD.

I recognize that I was an early adopter, and accept that, but I followed the format war extremely closely with a strong opinion on why Blu-ray was going to succeed from day one. Which I was happy to argue.

Now, we get to the REAL format war, and the new kid (digital downloads) thrown in as well.

I think DVD will die. I think Blu-ray will follow, and I think digital delivery will end up as our destiny.

These are the three ways we will watch for the near future, but perhaps before this decade is out, DVD will clearly be headed out to pasture if not already 'dead' as a format.

VHS was 'dead', long before it was dead. It's still one of the easiest ways to record video content, but is all but extinct. The Kodachrome of video.

 

[bogrod]

I think when DVD is basically relegated to what VHS is today, and digital downloads are the norm, BD will end up being a "videophile" format, much like laserdisc was for many, many years, released from boutique labels like Criterion. There will always be a "niche" group of people who want top quality, great extras, great commentaries, ect.

 

[digicidal]

I think when DVD is basically relegated to what VHS is today, and digital downloads are the norm, BD will end up being a "videophile" format, much like laserdisc was for many, many years, released from boutique labels like Criterion. There will always be a "niche" group of people who want top quality, great extras, great commentaries, ect.

I would almost be tempted to agree with you on this one if it weren't for one thing (well, OK I guess for a few things):
1) Streaming video will not get to the level of BD quality (or even full DVD in most cases) for many, many years in the US. In certain places in the world where fiber to the doorstep is common - then certainly. However, our infrastructure here has largely stalled and I don't see the cable companies (the primary driver ATM) working hard and investing billions so their customers can reduce their service levels.
2) Although it can be argued (and was by davidtwotrees and others) that the majority of people don't care and don't buy movies - I think that will change dramatically as HDTV adoption continues to expand and as those HDTV continue to produce a more and more unsatisfying picutre with SD sources.
3) Immigration - yep, you did read that correctly. It is my theory, that as we have more and more immigration from Mexico (both legal and illegal) the movie theater itself will be going the way of the dodo rather than DVD/BD. The reasoning is simply one of cost. Although the statistically 'traditional' American family is one with 1.5 children - the 'new' American family (recent immigrants) is much larger. As inflation continues to show it's head in the movie theatre, I think more and more people will rent/buy movies simply out of economics. Taking a family of 6 to a movie in the theater = ~3 BDs in your home collection (plus change) - or 10 DVD's if you buy from the bargain bins.
4) As more and more demands are placed on an inadequate Internet infrastructure - service levels will further decline. Already I have outages all the time now that I didn't before - and as soon as people come home from work the bandwidth goes to hell as they all fire up YouTube and Netflix. This will only continue - eventually sending those same people looking for a nearline solution that doesn't lag, doesn't skip and isn't dependent on a subscription that seems to be changing every 6 months lately.

JMHO - probably wrong on most of that. However, I can say personally - no matter how much more it is... I will not purchase any DVDs that are also available on BD. Why bother unless it's waaaay cheaper. If a DVD of a movie that sells for $20 on BD is only $4 - then I might just get the DVD (provided it's a movie I don't care that much about). If I'm only going to save a few dollars... then it's a no-brainer for me.