When will standard DVD go extinct?

[3db]

With the format war over between HD-DVD and Blu Ray, I've seen films now being pushed out on BluRay (for dirt cheap too ) that I have not seen released on DVD when DVD replaced VHS. Blazing Saddles comes to mind as an example. How long do you think DVD will last? 2 years? 5 years?

 

[sholling]

My guess is it'll be at least 5 years. There are too many people that will not upgrade their 10y/o CRTs (at least in 2nd & 3rd rooms) for 5 more years - especially if the economy and unemployment remain high. Plus the porn industry was and is a huge (no pun intended) driver of DVD player sales and as Katie Morgan pointed out in a HBO interview the high resolution and detail of Blu-Ray makes it tough to make skin look good enough that close up.

 

[Nugu]

They'll last until you can buy 20$ basic blu-ray players like you can DVD players (and 5$ blu-ray bins @ local retailers). People are cheap and the current economy just makes it worse.

Prices are dropping though, I still remember those first few players. So glad I didn't feel the need to buy one. Cheap blu-rays are still not that common at Brick stores though.

 

[j_garcia]

DVD sales have been steadily dropping, but until they drop to the point where it isn't profitable for companies to stop producing them still, they will continue.

There already ARE $5 bins for Blu-rays, but they are the crappy ones that the normal price is $10

 

[sholling]

DVD sales have been steadily dropping, but until they drop to the point where it isn't profitable for companies to stop producing them still, they will continue.

There already ARE $5 bins for Blu-rays, but they are the crappy ones that the normal price is $10

I agree. One of the things still holding back BD is the price. I don't watch that many movies a month and would just as soon put my $18/mo Netflix budget into buying one a month and have self imposed a purchase price limit. There aren't any more than 12 new movies a year that I have any interest in watching and many of my favorite classics aren't being remastered for BD if they are available at all on BD. For example I'm very curious if the upcoming BD release of the complete 1-6 Star Wars will be digitally remastered to take full advantage of 1080P or if it's just the some-old same-old tacked onto BD media.

 

[j_garcia]

If you watch sales, you can often pick up BDs within a dollar or two of the DVD, which makes DVD purchses kind of foolish IMO. As long as you are willing to wait a month or so, the prices of most mainstream movie releases tends to drop pretty quick.

Frys typically puts a few titles on sale every week in the $8-10 range for some older releases and recent but not new ones at $15-19, so it is easy to pick them up on a budget, like I said, as long as you do not need to own it on the release day.

 

[sholling]

If you watch sales, you can often pick up BDs within a dollar or two of the DVD, which makes DVD purchses kind of foolish IMO. As long as you are willing to wait a month or so, the prices of most mainstream movie releases tends to drop pretty quick.

I do exactly as you suggested, I either catch a good sale or wait for the price to drop.

 

[digicidal]

For example I'm very curious if the upcoming BD release of the complete 1-6 Star Wars will be digitally remastered to take full advantage of 1080P or if it's just the some-old same-old tacked onto BD media.

I would be very, very surprised if it weren't completely remastered. Unless George has changed his tune from back in the day when they were first about to be released on DVD. He seems to view them as his 'babies' - which I can't argue with as they've made him a billionaire... so I would seriously doubt that any expense will be spared on the mastering of the BR release.

Of course, I'd also expect that the consumer will be footing the bill on that production cost (i.e. I wouldn't be expecting to see that box-set in the discount bin any time in the next decade).

 

[j_garcia]

I would be very, very surprised if it weren't completely remastered. Unless George has changed his tune from back in the day when they were first about to be released on DVD. He seems to view them as his 'babies' - which I can't argue with as they've made him a billionaire... so I would seriously doubt that any expense will be spared on the mastering of the BR release.

Of course, I'd also expect that the consumer will be footing the bill on that production cost (i.e. I would be expecting to see that box-set in the discount bin any time in the next decade).

He already said in an interview that they are not going to do a "scrub every frame" restoration of them. They are going to remaster, but it didn't sound like they are going to go as nuts with it as the fans would like. I believe he said they aren't going to do much at all to the "new" trilogy, which since it is mostly digital already, they shouldn't have to.

 

[jliedeka]

I still occasionally buy DVDs. There are a lot of catalog titles available on DVD that may never get released as BD. For example, there are some box sets of less popular or downright obscure TV shows that will probably never see a BD release.

That said, I sometimes pay full price (full real price, not the ridiculously inflated MSRP) for some movies. Others I wait to go on sale. I've picked up a lot of $10 BDs through Amazon.

Jim

 

[digicidal]

He already said in an interview that they are not going to do a "scrub every frame" restoration of them. They are going to remaster, but it didn't sound like they are going to go as nuts with it as the fans would like. I believe he said they aren't going to do much at all to the "new" trilogy, which since it is mostly digital already, they shouldn't have to.

Well, I don't know if I'm even really a fan - at least not in comparison to the people that dress up, name their children 'Han' and wait in line for two weeks for the openings. I didn't even see the last two movies (or #2,#3 in plot-order) because I just couldn't bring myself to care enough.

That said I'm sure the production value will be just fine, and I'll probably enjoy them better if they are left largely alone - since that's how I remember them from watching them in the theater originally.

I'll add one more comment to the original topic - I still see (albeit rarely, but still) VHS tapes available for retail sale in stores... so that should give a pretty good idea of how long it will take for DVD to fully disappear.

 

[j_garcia]

I don't think too many formats ever entirely go extinct, they just become niche markets Laser disc players were still being manufactured up until last year.

 

[sholling]

I would be very, very surprised if it weren't completely remastered. Unless George has changed his tune from back in the day when they were first about to be released on DVD. He seems to view them as his 'babies' - which I can't argue with as they've made him a billionaire... so I would seriously doubt that any expense will be spared on the mastering of the BR release.

Unfortunately that's now how the home video business works. First they release the "theatrical" version, then the "director's cut", and then they have the "expanded platinum edition" and finally the "expanded platinum director's cut with sugar on it". The idea is to get you to buy the same movie at least four times.

A good example is The Lord Of The Rings Trilogy. First they had a theatrical version release on DVD, then a "Special Expanded DVD Edition" with lots of extra footage. Then after years of waiting they released the theatrical edition on Blu-Ray and are holding back releasing a "Special Expanded Blu-Ray Edition" hoping that if they wait long enough that they will sell this movie to the same customers a 4th time. A lot of fans like myself are boycotting the theatrical Blu-Ray and will wait years if necessary for the expanded edition.

 

[BMXTRIX]

DVD sales have been steadily dropping, but until they drop to the point where it isn't profitable for companies to stop producing them still, they will continue.

Best answer. Just as is the case, if there is a dollar to be made, there will be a line out the door to take part in earning that dollar. While DVDs cost pennies a disc to produce, and authoring a DVD has become a relatively inexpensive process, I don't forsee any time soon that they will cease production.

Unlike the VHS which was a severely limited format, and lasted a solid decade into the DVD realm, I believe that DVD has at least 6+ years of life cycle left. It may still be 2-3 years before Blu-ray even outsells DVD, or at least out profits DVD for a year.

I think as digital downloads begin to increase even more, we will see that combined with Blu-ray and cheaper product across the board get it to a point where it just makes a lot more sense to strictly buy Blu-ray, or strictly download/stream. Heck, if they could do the $1.00 new release download rental, I would think that it would take off far more than it has already.

Great to have choices.

 

[digicidal]

A lot of fans like myself are boycotting the theatrical Blu-Ray and will wait years if necessary for the expanded edition.

Yep... add one more to that list... it's sad because I really want to watch them again in HD - but meh, I did that in the theater - so I'll keep waiting and watching my DVDs until then.

 

[jliedeka]

I'm also waiting on the Extended LOTR BluRays. I already have the extended DVDs. I'm not buying he movies 3 times.

Jim

 

[sholling]

Best answer. Just as is the case, if there is a dollar to be made, there will be a line out the door to take part in earning that dollar. While DVDs cost pennies a disc to produce, and authoring a DVD has become a relatively inexpensive process, I don't forsee any time soon that they will cease production.

Unlike the VHS which was a severely limited format, and lasted a solid decade into the DVD realm, I believe that DVD has at least 6+ years of life cycle left. It may still be 2-3 years before Blu-ray even outsells DVD, or at least out profits DVD for a year.

DVD is also playable on BD players where (obviously) VHS tapes were not playable on DVD players. There are a lot of low volume niche movie productions who's home video sales might justify a DVD release but not the higher production costs of Blu-Ray. Movies like Waiting For Superman come to mind. Look how many years it took for an old favorite with a nice sized fan base like Forbidden Planet (1956) to make it to BD.

 

[Shadow_Ferret]

We still have CRT TVs in all our rooms. Our upstairs TV still has a DVD/VHS combo unit attached to it.

Blu-Ray? Who can afford that? And what would be the point until we get a new TV?

(Although we are looking at a 720p, except we don't know why since we'd have to pay more for cable to see it.)

 

[BMXTRIX]

DVD is also playable on BD players where (obviously) VHS tapes were not playable on DVD players. There are a lot of low volume niche movie productions who's home video sales might justify a DVD release but not the higher production costs of Blu-Ray. Movies like Waiting For Superman come to mind. Look how many years it took for an old favorite with a nice sized fan base like Forbidden Planet (1956) to make it to BD.

I ask that you not fall into the trap.

The trap I'm referring to is mistaking today's prices for authoring, producing, and releasing any title on Blu-ray to remain stagnant. While DVD is cheap, and Blu-ray is more expensive, you can bet that in a number of years - perhaps just 3 or 4, it may hold almost zero cost benefit to release a film on DVD, and may actually hurt sales if there is not a Blu-ray version available.

Forbidden Planet? Heck, Star Wars is coming out earlier on Blu-ray than it did on DVD. At this point, older films often need to be remastered to even come out in HD and look good. So, I don't think we can use any one film (especially older films) as any type of basis.

New films - when they are all HD, and are all showing up on Blu-ray, across the board, are going to continue to drive BD forward. The technologies will be refind, and BD-Rs will drop in price more and more. Before you know it, you will buy a 10 pack for $5 and AOL will be sending you BDs to use as coasters.

Really though, the fact that DVDs do play in BD players is one of the key reasons DVD will hang on for so long. Yet, at some point, studios will just recognize that DVD sales aren't keeping pace and aren't making them a lot of money (or any money?) and that is when DVD will be on it's final tour.

 

[BMXTRIX]

(Although we are looking at a 720p, except we don't know why since we'd have to pay more for cable to see it.)

A bit off topic, but why not just plug the cable straight into your HDTV? You can get all the clear QAM channels without a cable box at all. If you alredy have HD service, the rental of most HD boxes is typically the same as a SD cable box.

Just wondering... Some cable companies I guess may charge more for certain boxes/services I imagine.