Study Says Blu-ray Can't Save Disc-Based Media

[admin]

Here’s one more reason last year’s high-def format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray was so destructive. While miring potential customers in confusion it wasted much of physical media’s remaining days in the sun. According to a study conducted by Futuresource, Blu-ray sales won’t save physical media. Although we’ve seen high def disc sales are indeed growing, the study concludes that physical, pre-packaged disc media is flat and going nowhere fast.

Discuss "Study Says Blu-ray Can't Save Disc-Based Media" here. Read the article.

 

[gliz]

I will be buying a bluray player soon (Panasonic DMP-BD35 ). I plan to keep buying shiny disks until they stop selling them. Infect I have been on a CD buying spree lately. I am not looking forward to these going away. I like to have something in my had for my cash, what say y’all?

 

[GZA]

the day the stop putting out actually cds and dvds is the day i stop paying for media. if im just going to get a little download for my itunes i well just download it for free because it turns out to be the same. i like owning something, i work hard for my money and want something to show for it and something i can pawn off when times get hard

 

[fredk]

I think you got it partially right in the last sentance of the article. Its all about providing value. The funny thing is, Sony and the big studios have been concentrating on the value it provides to the wrong group; themselves.

Bluray, and any protected media, electronic or otherwise, offers a lot more value to the studios than it does to the buying public.

Yes, the image is a little nicer on my 50" display, but its not hollycrapwow better. I can wait until there is not price difference, or I can wait until full def downloads become practical for me. Whichever...

 

[GlocksRock]

Doing away with physical media is a big mistake.

 

[Matt34]

Is the bandwidth there to support online HD downloading? I don't see the issue as long as online stores can provide a database so you can download media you have purchased in case of a hard drive failure. I have a backup drive but you can never tell. I'll feel better when flash-based HD can match the current capacities of mechanical ones.

 

[jostenmeat]

I think you got it partially right in the last sentance of the article. Its all about providing value. The funny thing is, Sony and the big studios have been concentrating on the value it provides to the wrong group; themselves.

You do realize that Panasonic owns all the patents concerning Bluray.

Bluray, and any protected media, electronic or otherwise, offers a lot more value to the studios than it does to the buying public.

If you say so. What, you don't think DDs are going to be loaded with DRM as well?

Yes, the image is a little nicer on my 50" display, but its not hollycrapwow better. I can wait until there is not price difference, or I can wait until full def downloads become practical for me. Whichever...

I could not disagree more, but I use a JVC PJ with 42 deg viewing angle. Even the best transfers that I know of on DVD are unwatchable compared to a mid level BD transfer. An excellent BD transfer leaves even all of the movie theaters in the dust IMO. Heck, I don't even need to compare. DVD is simply unwatchable for me, period.

 

[Matt34]

I could not disagree more, but I use a JVC PJ with 42 deg viewing angle. Even the best transfers that I know of on DVD are unwatchable compared to a mid level BD transfer. An excellent BD transfer leaves even all of the movie theaters in the dust IMO. Heck, I don't even need to compare. DVD is simply unwatchable for me, period.

+1
Even at 720P I can tell the difference on my 50" from about 10-12' away. I really became a believer in HDTV.

 

[gliz]

One other point, what if these files get coded in souch a way that they can only be played on your stuff and you cannot watch them at your friends house. As to the person that said dvd's are unwatchable, I think that is a little over the top. I bet that if they did a double blind test (with blu-ray) with 720p,1080i and 1080P, I bet the unknowing naked human eye could not spot the diffrence

 

[en sabur nur]

+1
Even at 720P I can tell the difference on my 50" from about 10-12' away. I really became a believer in HDTV.

That's good for those who can, but they are the minority. Bluray picture quality is markedly better than dvd (usually), but the mainstream consumer is not as concerned as the enthusiasts.
I think the mainstream public will do more renting of Bluray disks (the studios want them to buy... alot, like they did with dvd. But unless they're buying for the children. I just don't see the excitement and fervor for owning Bluray like I saw for owning DVD's, at least not in the mainstream public. That boat has sailed.
Digital downloads will have a market with renters, but long-term ownership...I don't think so. Besides the DRM restrictions, what if everyone (content owners and manufacturers) can't decide on which format to use, what about storage for the files, what if the download company goes out of business and the biggest of all (at least for now) where will the bandwith come from for all of this downloading? Will the ISP's allow it. All of those questions have to be answered before downloading has a bright future with the mainstream public, otherwise it will be a niche market. If the past is an indicator, they'll screw it up. In order for "download to own movies" to take off, there will have to be fluid exchange with all approved hardware. The way it looks now, if you buy something from one distributor (itunes, Xbox Live, Playstation Store), they don't work with your other hardware. That will never go mainstream like dvd. It will be profitable! But it won't be as mainstream as dvd because the hardware and software don't work together.

 

[jinjuku]

Doing away with physical media is a big mistake.

Welcome to the near future where media companies will finally get what they want:

Total control of anything your put down your hard earned $$ for. HDCP/Broad Cast Flag/Streaming encrypted content that you don't own. The beauty of keeping it off of media is less of a target to crack against.

 

[jinjuku]

the day the stop putting out actually cds and dvds is the day i stop paying for media. if im just going to get a little download for my itunes i well just download it for free because it turns out to be the same. i like owning something, i work hard for my money and want something to show for it and something i can pawn off when times get hard

You do own something with a digital download (especially the DRM free stuff). You own all the effort and manpower that went into the song/movie/what ever.

It's like complaining that the restaurant wont let you leave with the glass your drink came in. It's just a delivery mechanism.

You are mixing the message and the messenger up.

 

[en sabur nur]

One other point, what if these files get coded in souch a way that they can only be played on your stuff and you cannot watch them at your friends house. As to the person that said dvd's are unwatchable, I think that is a little over the top. I bet that if they did a double blind test (with blu-ray) with 720p,1080i and 1080P, I bet the unknowing naked human eye could not spot the diffrence

I agree. There is far more to good picture quality than resolution. People say that they know, but they keep making posts about picture quality based solely on resolution. They're are some Bluray disks that hardly look any better than the dvd! I think most consumers would still watch dvd's, even after seeing Bluray quality! A well-transferred dvd still looks good, not just watchable.

 

[gmichael]

One other point, what if these files get coded in souch a way that they can only be played on your stuff and you cannot watch them at your friends house. As to the person that said dvd's are unwatchable, I think that is a little over the top. I bet that if they did a double blind test (with blu-ray) with 720p,1080i and 1080P, I bet the unknowing naked human eye could not spot the diffrence

I can. With my 106" screen it's easy to pick out which is which. That said, DVD's are still not all that bad. I wouldn't call them unwatchable.
The movies I can download on the PS3 seem pretty good too though. Right up there with BR. It's just that I don't like to spend $7.00 for something that's not going to be mine. For $20 or 30 I could own the movie and watch it for a lifetime. Downloading is nice for when I have friends over and everyone wants to see something that I don't have. It's great to be able to put on most any movie for a party.

But please, PLEASE, don't take discs away.

 

[Highbar]

I think getting rid of disks is a big mistake. Yes I like having something in my possession but at the same time I like to be able to take it with me where ever I go. I understand that you can take digital media with you but only if you want to take a computer or harddrive with you. And how much bandwidth are these movies going to take to download? They are talking about huge amounts of bandwidth that even on a cable line is likely to hours to complete for a full HD movie. In that time most of us could go to the store buy the movie, go get some snacks to eat, get home and watch it.

I like my shiny little disks.

 

[KenC]

I don't buy the whole 'average consumer can't tell the difference' argument. HDTVs are selling like hotcakes. The difference between DVD and Blu-ray is the difference between SDTV and HDTV, period. And don't get me started on upsampling. There's no substitute for resolution. Not to mention the vastly superior compression (both algorithm and bitrate).

Digital downloading will continue to be a growing market. But if you want that, you've had it for a long time now - it's called pay-per-view. If, on the other hand, you want to own the media, optical discs are still the best choice.

The holy grail for the studios is not the DRM built into Blu-ray. They make no bones about the fact that they want to be paid each time the film is watched. "Want to watch your downloaded Snow White? Disney says it's not available at the moment, in preparation for the super upgraded version coming next year." It's not as unlikely as you think.

 

[niget2002]

I don't buy the whole 'average consumer can't tell the difference' argument. HDTVs are selling like hotcakes. The difference between DVD and Blu-ray is the difference between SDTV and HDTV, period. And don't get me started on upsampling. There's no substitute for resolution. Not to mention the vastly superior compression (both algorithm and bitrate).

Digital downloading will continue to be a growing market. But if you want that, you've had it for a long time now - it's called pay-per-view. If, on the other hand, you want to own the media, optical discs are still the best choice.

The holy grail for the studios is not the DRM built into Blu-ray. They make no bones about the fact that they want to be paid each time the film is watched. "Want to watch your downloaded Snow White? Disney says it's not available at the moment, in preparation for the super upgraded version coming next year." It's not as unlikely as you think.

It's not that they can't tell the difference... it's that they don't care. My dad bought a nice shiny HDtv... what pissed him off was, "Why did I buy a widescreen tv if there's still going to be bars at the top and bottom?" They don't care about the technology, they don't care about "reproducing" what the director wanted you to see... they want a big tv and they want the entire screen used all the time. I am happy to say my dad is not one of those that pushes the expand button causing everyone to be either short and wide or skinny and tall.

He will agree that an HD signal looks better than an SD signal on his tv, but for him as long as the picture shows up on the screen and he can see it from his chair, that's all that matters.

 

[j_garcia]

He will agree that an HD signal looks better than an SD signal on his tv, but for him as long as the picture shows up on the screen and he can see it from his chair, that's all that matters.

That's how my dad was before too, that is, until I bought him a blu-ray player He knew video could look good on his new HDTV but regular broadcast still looked average. He craved more and BD delivered.

I have been saying for years that physical media would go away, but I don't think it will go away SOON. It will take a while before the infrastructure is really there for direct to your home access to HD video on demand. I've actually cut back buying discs of late, partially because of the economy and also because I don't want a HUGE collection that will eventually become more or less obsolete. Now that Netflix has a sufficient selection, I signed up and am going to take advantage of that venue to find out which discs will be worthy of a purchase for me.

 

[Dezoris]

In my opinion there is around 1% of consumer broadband services available that could physically transfer bluray quality video and uncompressed audio over the internet.

These companies who put out these estimates don't understand how much network infrastructure would need to be in place to eliminate disk media.

We are at least 5 years away from fiber or 20Mbs connections to become more common place in homes and thats not enough.

However I have always agreed about one thing with digital distribution:
consumers will eat that sh*t up. Compressed video and audio will take hold because it's easier to sell to those who don't know any better.

I am all for streaming, if they can get me bluray quality audio and video. But thats not going to happen in the next 10 years.

 

[Wayde Robson]

I'm not sure exactly how it works or where it's going but I fear the race to DIgital Downloads is a race to bottom-of-the-barrel transfers and audio.

I write a lot of Media reviews for Blu-ray discs. When a BD movie is poorly done I have a studio to blame. There is accountability. I don't see this with digital downloads.

Sure, there could be... you could see the "offical" SPHE HD-file-of-your-choice with the offical SPHE 7.1 DTS-HD-MA audio score. But I really think what's happening with digital downloads is we don't know who did the transfer and they're usually not as good.

But like I said, I could be wrong. We'll just have to wait and see I guess.