My take on the bailout, part 1

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markw

Audioholic Overlord
Well. it seems that “they” want the federal government to come to the aid of the banks in this mortgage fiasco. Why just the banks?

After all, greed was the main cause of this. It was greed on the part of the mortgage granters (banks and such), it was greed on the parts of those that bought the mortgages and repackaged them and greed on the part of those that bought those packages.

Oh, yes, it was also greed on the poor schmucks that bought too big a house for their budget. But, isn’t it the job of the moneylenders to know this beforehand?

But that’s right. They ALL counted on the values going up. It’s too bad the bubble burst and the value of that over priced $400,000 house (they planned on selling in two years for $500 - $600) is now worth less than it was when the mortgage was granted.

But, to be fair, who should take the fall? The lending institution that should have known that the housing values were shaky? Or the people who fell prey to lenders sales pitch from the lenders (banks) who said go ahead, buy big. The value will go up. We’ll even give you deferred and/or low rates …for now.

So Mr. and Mrs. Shmuck are stuck with a high monthly payment they never really figured on paying for a house they never could afford in real life had the lenders properly qualified them. They thought he could slide by just making interest payments until he sold the house for a profit in a few years. After all, that’s what the lenders told them,

So, both the lender and the poor Schmucks bit into the greed apple.

Of course, immediately after the papers were signed, that mortgage was sold to Freddie and Fannie Mae, which repackages these into big security bonds (based on increasing home values) and sells it to other investors who want their cut of the profits they expect the Schmucks’ eventual house sake to provide for them. The Maes then took their “profits” and bought more over-valued mortgage just like that the Schmucks. They just increased their share in the greed pool.

So, now The Schmucks, their bank, the Maes and the security holders all shared in that big ole apple.

As it now stands, there are still some mortgages and homes still in that loop. Those are the ones on which the banks and secondary mortgage brokers are taking a bath. Nobody wants to buy ‘em when everyone know they aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. In fact, they’re worth less!

It seems to me that everyone took a pretty good chomp of that apple. But, whom does the government want to save? The ones in the middle! The banks and the Maes! What about everyone else?

The final buyers are kinda stuck. They bought knowing these were volatile, particularly over the past year or so. Unless they were guaranteed a profit, it was just another investment that could go up or down.

But, the poor Schmucks are still left holding the bag, as it were, and are still on the hook for high mortgages. If they can’t and don’t pay that exorbitant mortgage or sell their house at a price that can cover the mortgage, they lose their homes and credit ratings. The banks (or whomever holds the mortgage) will repossess those houses and still have their property.

(more)
 
M

markw

Audioholic Overlord
My take on the bailout, part 2

Yes, a bailout is needed to keep this country afloat. We need banks and the more the merrier. But the bailout should do something to help the poor Schmucks that are at the bottom of the dog pile as well. They were just as much victims to a lack of oversight as well as their own greed. My suggestion is that they should be allowed to refinance their homes at a lower interest rate (let the banks and the Maes eat this loss) and perhaps at a re-negotiated, more realistic price (again, on the banks and the Maes). That would allow them to sell out or possibly make a more realistic mortgage payment.

Of course, if anyone took too big a bite of that apple, they might never be able to crawl out from under that rock without financial loss.

Oh, let's get something back from the brilliant executives that made all the bonuses overthe past few years for putting us in this mess, notto mention close scrutiny of any executive bonuses or golden parachutes currently in existance.
 
Rickster71

Rickster71

Audioholic Spartan
There is a bit more, if I may add.
FWIW
We were at a party a few weeks back, and at our table, we sat with some people that were up pretty high on the banking industry food chain.
I had a very fascinating, and lengthy conversation.
The short story is: The lending industry was deregulated, as payback by our government for making the industry give loans to people that were bad credit risks. It was described to me as "Social Re-engineering"
The link below, describes a bit of that.
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=usvG-s_Ssb0
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
But, to be fair, who should take the fall?
I'm not too sure about "should" or "fair" but I'll give you two guesses who it's going to be in the end (and the first guess don't count) :D

Mort (resigned to being freaking doomed)
 
Alamar

Alamar

Full Audioholic
@Rickster: I think you're probably referring to this ... New York Times article

As far as who should be bailed out I would think the most important thing [in the relative short term] would be to get money [credit] flowing again at reasonable levels. Bailing out the poor Schmuck who was too stupid to get into a loan that they couldn't pay off may be outside of what I want to do. I.E. if we bail out some fat cat banks to keep from sliding into a depression then I'm willing to listen. I don't want to compound the debt issue by also bailing out J6P.

NOTE: One terrible thing that I heard is an interview with a bank president indicating that if the bailout passes that people who don't qualify for loans today may get loans. I was left thinking "Did I miss something or is this guy the problem"?
 
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J

jamie2112

Banned
I sold my house 2 years ago Dec and couldn't be happier. I wish so many people wre told this info as I was. I got out before this crap hit.....Thank god :D
 
P

penpitt

Audioholic
My wife and I bought our first home about 6 years ago right as the housing market was beginning to take off. It is an older home and is modest in size (1300 sq. feet). We bought it for $130,000 and put $15,000 down. We could have easily afforded more house both in size and cost and our lender and Realtor were actually pushing us to buy bigger and newer. Their reasoning was it would appreciate in value much quicker than the older home we bought. I told them we wanted a home we could afford with 1 income in case one of us lost our job. I also told them we were buying a house, not a short-term investment.Now it appears that our short-sightedness may backfire. Had we bought a house we couldn't afford, we could possibly be looking at getting a new, possibly lower interest rate and the negative equity 'erased' from that loan.
So to all those people who bought homes that they knew they could not afford within a few years and were hoping to flip them for a quick buck before then, too bad. You gambled with your homes in hopes of selling it and making a good profit a few years down the road. In the end you may lose your home but you can still rent a home/apt. and in a few more years you may be able to afford a more modest home.

Sorry for the rant
 
1

10010011

Senior Audioholic
My wife and I bought our first home about 6 years ago right as the housing market was beginning to take off. It is an older home and is modest in size (1300 sq. feet). We bought it for $130,000 and put $15,000 down. We could have easily afforded more house both in size and cost and our lender and Realtor were actually pushing us to buy bigger and newer. Their reasoning was it would appreciate in value much quicker than the older home we bought. I told them we wanted a home we could afford with 1 income in case one of us lost our job. I also told them we were buying a house, not a short-term investment.Now it appears that our short-sightedness may backfire. Had we bought a house we couldn't afford, we could possibly be looking at getting a new, possibly lower interest rate and the negative equity 'erased' from that loan.
So to all those people who bought homes that they knew they could not afford within a few years and were hoping to flip them for a quick buck before then, too bad. You gambled with your homes in hopes of selling it and making a good profit a few years down the road. In the end you may lose your home but you can still rent a home/apt. and in a few more years you may be able to afford a more modest home.

Sorry for the rant
You should not feel bad because you did the right thing.

My wife and I felt exactly the same and bought a house we can afford. I remember when we went in to get pre-approved they asked how much we wanted, and when we told them they were like "That's all? Are you sure? We would give you twice that or more".

We had a 6 year ARM but refinanced at a lower rate 15 year mortgage when the ARM was set to lock. Our interest is so low (I can't remember the number off the top of my head) that it's not even worth the extra paper work to claim it on our taxes. Last year we ran the numbers again and it would have got us a whopping $50 larger refund.
 
P

Press Record

Enthusiast
It's true that there is a lot of pressure in this country to buy a house. It's part of the american dream and people often ignore the risk involved.
 
F

fmw

Audioholic Ninja
Why I hate the bailout:

1. I don't trust government and I don't believe what the government officials tell me.

2. No recession is as bad as having government get immersed in business to this extent.

3. If we are due for a recession, then we are due for a recession. It is cyclical. The bailout might delay it but it won't avoid it. It can't avoid it.

4. I simply do not believe that 5% of the mortgages going sour is the equivalent of the end of humanity and life as we know it.

What should we do? We should lift the mark-to-market accounting rules and get out of the way. Banks make their revenue from lending. They will lend.

What about the consumers who took mortgages they couldn't afford? That was their choice. What they are experiencing is a consequence of their action. What about the companies who did the lending? If they made stupid decisions then they deserve to go out of business. Can life exist without Freddie and Fannie. Of course it can.

I don't want to seem heartless but I don't want to see my country ruined by this enormous stupidity on the part of government. Nevertheless, the government will do it in the end. I won't get what I want. So it goes.
 
E

Exit

Audioholic Chief
I was wondering if anyone had a mortgage with a bank that went bankrupt? Are there still employees or computers sending out the monthly bill or do all the loans go to some other bank? Its logical that you would still have to pay someone.
 
bandphan

bandphan

Banned
if they would stop valuing the dollar against the stock market and go back to the gold standard....wait im gonna stop there
 
M

mudrummer99

Senior Audioholic
Why I hate the bailout:

1. I don't trust government and I don't believe what the government officials tell me.

2. No recession is as bad as having government get immersed in business to this extent.

3. If we are due for a recession, then we are due for a recession. It is cyclical. The bailout might delay it but it won't avoid it. It can't avoid it.

4. I simply do not believe that 5% of the mortgages going sour is the equivalent of the end of humanity and life as we know it.

What should we do? We should lift the mark-to-market accounting rules and get out of the way. Banks make their revenue from lending. They will lend.

What about the consumers who took mortgages they couldn't afford? That was their choice. What they are experiencing is a consequence of their action. What about the companies who did the lending? If they made stupid decisions then they deserve to go out of business. Can life exist without Freddie and Fannie. Of course it can.

I don't want to seem heartless but I don't want to see my country ruined by this enormous stupidity on the part of government. Nevertheless, the government will do it in the end. I won't get what I want. So it goes.
This hits the nail on the head when it comes to my personal opinion with what is wrong with this country, NO ACCOUNTABILITY. All these people, and I even have a few friends that I care deeply about in this mess, were greedy, plain and simple. Seeing a $50-100k profit in 6 weeks and thinking nothing could go wrong is just plain ignorant. Banks charging interest only loans to these ignorant people thinking nothing can go wrong is just bad business. Buying up securities in this whole fiasco is a bad investment, especially when you look at lending practices over the past 5 years or so. If someone needs to lose their house and their "American Dream" over this, that's also part of America, I like to refer to it as "Vegas or Bust" (aka go big or go home). They got the bust part this time, it happens, deal with it and move on. I understand the ramifications of these people losing their homes, which will lead to them not spending money, which will lead to the economy slowing, which will lead to jobs being lost due to lack of consumer dollars, I get that. Investors will lose their shorts, banks (at least the dumb ones) will lose millions or more, people will lose houses and for some reason, myself and my wife who DO make enough to buy a decent house and ARE responsible enough to know what we can afford, can't get a mortgage loan to save our lives because we have debt, yes student loans, that's all, no consumer debt, no car loans, nothing, just student loans. But that's all part of the fun, J6P messed up and I get to help pay for it. That's my 5 cents worth, thanks for reading.

Mike
 
aberkowitz

aberkowitz

Audioholic Field Marshall
if they would stop valuing the dollar against the stock market and go back to the gold standard....wait im gonna stop there
Maybe you should stop because the first half of your statement shows that you know very little about currency valuation... the value of the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of the stock market. If you really feel that strongly about the gold standard, please explain to the rest of us why the gold standard is superior to what we have now?
 
MinusTheBear

MinusTheBear

Audioholic Ninja
Maybe you should stop because the first half of your statement shows that you know very little about currency valuation... the value of the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of the stock market. If you really feel that strongly about the gold standard, please explain to the rest of us why the gold standard is superior to what we have now?

Maybe we should go to oil standard:).

Seriously though the Federal reserve runs the economics in the country. You will see as the federal reserve prints more money due to this bailout plan the American dollar will continue to fall. Could this cause hyper-inflation, maybe?
 
C

cbraver

Audioholic Chief
Maybe you should stop because the first half of your statement shows that you know very little about currency valuation... the value of the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of the stock market. If you really feel that strongly about the gold standard, please explain to the rest of us why the gold standard is superior to what we have now?
...and you must figure out a way to work robots into your response as well....
 
aberkowitz

aberkowitz

Audioholic Field Marshall
Maybe we should go to oil standard:).

Seriously though the Federal reserve runs the economics in the country. You will see as the federal reserve prints more money due to this bailout plan the American dollar will continue to fall. Could this cause hyper-inflation, maybe?
Minus- you're quoting talking points that are at least 6-8 weeks old. If you've followed the dollar since the middle of the summer, it's actually strengthened SIGNIFICANTLY against the major currencies of the world. Both the Euro and the Pound have fallen greatly against the dollar- the pound was at almost $2 and is now down around $1.77, the Euro was close to $1.70 at one point, and is now down to $1.40- which is a 13 month low against the dollar. Two major reasons for the strengthening of the dollar- 1) The increase in interest rates by several european central banks (currency exchange rates are highly tied to the differences in interest rates between countries), and 2) The cheapness of American goods abroad, causing foreign consumers to import more goods from the US and purchase less of their home country goods, and therefore pumping more cash out of their country back to the US.
 
aberkowitz

aberkowitz

Audioholic Field Marshall
...and you must figure out a way to work robots into your response as well....
Robots??? I don't get your comment... I'm speaking about the fundamentals of economics and monetary policy.
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
Two major reasons for the strengthening of the dollar- 1) The increase in interest rates by several european central banks (currency exchange rates are highly tied to the differences in interest rates between countries.
Ya lost me on this one Aberkowitz:confused: Generally speaking, doesn't increasing interest rates tend to strenghten the value of a currency? When the Fed Funds Rate was in the 5% neighborhood the Euro and peso (oops dollar;)) were pretty close to 1:1 IIRC.

Mort (who still likes the feel of a double eagle in his hand anyway)
 
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cbraver

Audioholic Chief
Robots??? I don't get your comment... I'm speaking about the fundamentals of economics and monetary policy.
I just wanted to add something light, stupid and completely random to lighten the mood before he responded. :)
 

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