I just know that with rear projection I can get a very well performing, big screen TV for half the price and half the weight (in most cases) of a similar sized plasma/LCD. Bulk is starting to be less of an issue too, with a 56" slim case having less depth than my 27" CRT (though I admit you'd still want a second person to help move any type of big TV). And with long lasting light sources starting to come out, RP can finally get rid of one of their biggest problems.
Though, if I had a light controlled room then FP would indeed take the front runner spot.
I'd guess that once there start to be several high quality 60" flat-panels for under $3000, then we'd see the end of RPTV's. Will that happen by 2011? Who knows. Are flat-panel prices dropping as fast as they once were? I don't know, I haven't been watching them for too long to be able to say.
Just my thoughts, take care.