I still think we have a long way to go on this issue. A year, into the format war and things aren't settled, that's for sure, but the formats themselves are outpacing DVD adoption if what I have read is correct. This is fairly significant as it shows that the formats aren't 'failing'. In fact, using Nielsen numbers, it is easy to see that sales growth for software (movies) has grown consistently from month to month throughout the year. Granted, this may match up with releases of titles as well.
At the end of the day, DVD-A and SACD can't remotely be compared to HD Discs. It is just the wrong example. Audio, for the average consumer, is ALWAYS an afterthought. The mp3 is proof enough that people just want music that sounds decent, and they want it accessible. This is in direct contradiction to televisions which they want BIG and beautiful. HDTVs are selling more and more in the states, so HD disc formats will follow.
Quickly? Not at all. It will have to follow HDTV adoption which is going on ten years and still working for 'mass' adoption.
Is PS3 the saving grace? Nah! Not at all. But, it is a part of the solution to helping the format(s) succeed. People aren't going to buy a product they have never heard of, so building brand recognition is going to be one of the key elements that the PS3 delivers. Blu-ray, Blu-ray, Blu-ray!!! Whether the praise is good (PS3 fans) or bad (X360 fans), it is still spreading the word. A few million consoles sold doesn't guarantee anything, but is part of the solution.
Just as HDMI is. You want a major reason why SACD/DVD-A suck? Because they are to damn complicated to hook up! HDMI, especially as things progress, is simple. One wire to a TV, receiver, projector, whatever! If it doesn't give the person a headache - and for most it does not, then HD DVD and Blu-ray have simplified the connectivity process in a way that neither audio format was willing to do.
Finally, price.
Price matters a great deal and new technologies never hit that magic price point. You think SED or OLED are going to be cheap when they start coming in force? So why would they survive? Because they will figure out production! In a few years we are likely to see HD disc players for well under 200 bucks pretty easily. Perhaps dual format players even. But, in reality, the technology, while much more advanced than DVD, still doesn't really consumer more raw materials, or a lot more parts inside the box compared to DVD. So, once every aspect of production is in full swing, you likely will see sub $100 players which are crammed full of all the latest features and technologies. People won't get excited about DTS-MA audio or True HD... It will be standard - expected - on everything.
As for the studios... They are going to follow the money. So, their initial releases will be bare-bones items. Yet, as the technology grows and sales increase, studios will see greater profitability which will lead to more money invested in HD mastering of all aspects of the disc production.
HD downloads are a different story altogether and could be far more impactful in the long run to HD discs.
I don't disagree with the article, but it won't be a year or even two for these formats to do a darn thing. It will be more like 3-5 years before we will begin to have an idea.
