Ten Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed

[ironlung]

Way, way off topic

Actually I would like to thank Clint, Gene, Tom and the staff at audioholics and even the members for tolerating all my nonsense. I hope some enjoy my humor.

I recently signed up to be able to post over at tivo community(as Ironlung). They were not so receptive to my mannerisms. I was banned for life by my third post.

There was a thread on the 3 armed baby in Asia. I think I said something about having the nickname 'tripod'. Next thing I knew....Banned for Life!

Again a big non sarcastic thanks to the AH community for letting me hang around.

 

[JAD2]

IMO they are allready doomed.
For one I did see a HD DVD on a 1080P TV, one of the few out there against the same brand, non 1080P with the same movie, standard disc upconverted. I wasnt impressed in the least and would agree just having a new HD ready TV is awe, those arent. Could be the movie ?????
But forget us, the few nutty enough to venture into this. I work with people that are just making ends meat right now. When the full transition is into place for TV broadcasting leaving them to get some kinda of converter and or the current pricing comes down favorable for the TV's they may purchase these, but would leave them stone broke for a current HD DVD player or still not being able to use one. These people are tickled to death with WallyMart $29 players they just could afford that on this new TV they just could also afford, why would they want more.This is a masses problem and poor timing with having just TV itself costing IMO.
Now even from my stand point of having money to go the next step, the nerve/stupidity whatever you may call it. I've seen technology bit my backside too many times over the last 25 years. Bought computers which are a prime examples and the kids game systems. When I bought it , it was the latest and greatest out there only to find out 2 months later and less its super outdated. Least with those it still worked fine, sometimes upgradable and software and the likes could run on systems from 300 to well over a gig and you really at times couldnt tell. This isnt like that, nothing has been settled yet, doesnt look like it would be either and if I go on the trends of the past 25 years, HD DVD and Blueray by the time its settled, and also rumor has it, something else better will be out. Why buy one of these if it can only play a certain way, certain connection and so on.
Enough of the ramblings, but I dont think it has a chance and I'm into this new stuff!!!!!

 

[Nomo]

I completely agree with the article.
I just don't understand what these guys (Sony and Toshiba) are thinking.
Do they really think the average consumer is going to trade in their $100 DVD player? Or more to the point, know that they should without being told about the new formats through some form of advertising?
Before hearing about it here on AH I had no idea of the existence of DVD-A or SACD. It appears as though HD-DVD and Blueray will suffer in the same way unless these guys figure out that these formats ain't gonna take hold through osmosis.
I seriously doubt that "Joe Six-pack" knows or even cares about difference between Blueray, Bluetooth, or Blueballs.
Considering the money that must have gone into the R&D, I would have expected to see a commercial during the Superbowl.

 

[JackT]

I think the fact that hi-def disc formats are not a revolutionary improvement over DVD is irrelevent. This is because the new disc formats represent the same incremental improvement over DVD that HDTV provides over SDTV. The question is: do you want to watch hi-def movies on your hi-def TV? The answer is YES. Therefore hi-def disc players are needed and will be bought. A revolutionary technology is pointless with an incrementally improved TV.

HD cable/sattelite seems to be doing pretty well. People are just plain going to want to get HD movies on disc. Once you go HD you never go back.

Plus, don't HD players play DVDs also? I think people will treat the new players as fancy new DVD players.

As far as the new formats having a rocky or false start goes, who knows about any of that except enthusiasts, who, BTW, have bought every player that is available? How smooth was the rollout of VHS and DVD? The first players were probably crap bought only by early adopter types. Only nobody knew because there was no internet.

Which brings up the "jaded enthusiast" point. Who is responsible for buying every HD-DVD player that was available? Care to take bets on how many Blu-Ray units will be left after release, even at $1K a pop?

The examples of other failed formats is, I think, also irrelevent. Again, you have all those HDTVs out there. The viewers are all out there, waiting for players.

PS3: nobody cares.

 

[birdonthebeach]

Great stuff, Clint.

Can you elaborate (or point to a post elsewhere) on Time Warner's upcoming technology rollout in SC? I was emailing back and forth with the director of marketing for TWC SC earlier this week, and she made some mention of a service about to be rolled out.

 

[JAD2]

The examples of other failed formats is, I think, also irrelevent. Again, you have all those HDTVs out there. The viewers are all out there, waiting for players.

When the Beta VHS war was happening, very few even knew it existed until it was too late. I was one of them along with millions of others in this boat. You didnt have the media coverage in magazines, the internet and other communication devices like today and thats the first downfall of it, alot know now. And then during that time what was out there to rent movies from, watch buy etc?? Today you allready have DVD , some I know still arent past VHS yet, why, cant afford, dot watch enough, dont see the justification yet.
All those HDTV's????? Anybody want to guess what percentage of the people on this planet that have TV's have HDTV's!!!!! Small percentage, very small!!
I got one and love HD broadcasts, but I just dont watch just HD broadcasts. Nor do I spend enough time, 3-6 movies a month to justify thowing my upconverting DVD player away for this when I am pushing my cable company to add more channels and I spend alot more time watching TV broadcasts then movies!! H*ll if cable was all HD quality, I probably would add $18 to add showtime, cinemax and maybe go more for other channels than I have now and wait for it to come on TV!!!!

 

[JackT]

All those HDTV's????? Anybody want to guess what percentage of the people on this planet that have TV's have HDTV's!!!!! Small percentage, very small!!

You don't have to guess; the numbers are well-known. World-wide, about 16 million households have HDTVs. The current market is about 25 BILLION dollars annually. In a couple of years it will be 70 BILLION.

You're not suggesting that there isn't a HUGE market for HDTV content, or that HDTV isn't here to stay, growing bigger and bigger every year, are you??? More content will only make it grow faster still. Don't forget broadcast TV is going digital in a few years.

So YES there are LOTS of HDTVs out there. Before long they will ALL be HDTVs. Some TV manufacturers no longer sell CRT sets at all.

 

[mulester7]

.....JackT, your last two posts on this thread is what Audioholics.com needs....really good posts, Sir.....

 

[Kruncher]

Right on the money!

Great piece Clint, simply outstanding. This summarizes much of the happenings and broad discussions of the last few years very well indeed.

To point 10 specifically, how did the industry, with a few noteable exceptions, miss the point so badly in terms of understanding consumer interests you cited. MP3 vs. DVD-A/SACD anyone?

I mean, I love multichannel hirez stuff (that which is available in the types of music I prefer!), but I understand how Joe Average doesn't care about quality audio/video/w.h.y the way **we** do. And there seem to be a lot more Joes out there than there are of **us**.

Here's an example: my wife's Uncle has had a new Acura TL for a few months. I got to ride in it a few weeks back. I brought up the DVD-A system in the car. He didn't even know what DVD-A was!!! Grrr... Drives me nuts whenever I think about it. And more so, statistically he's probably typical of TL owners! "I just burn MP3's on CDs" he says.

I've been waiting for the "right" choice to jump into HDTV for about a year now. About four years back I bought a 50" SD Toshiba RPTV for a steal of a price, way less than a similar DTV. But now I want to make the leap without sacrificing size (got used to it) and not need a second mortgage. Never mind the various display techonolgy pro's and con's. And, the cable company doesn't supply near enough HD signal, or true HD at all, to merit it anyway!

For me, the biggest disappoint with the industry has been how good hirez audio is (and I don't even have great gear) versus what's happened to it and where it's going. There's been some talk of how BD and HDDVD could save hirez audio, but if, in the end, nobody's going to be buying players, is all hope lost? Nobody being a relative term - what did I read the other day? Nobody = less than a million people or something like that...

Anyway, enough already. Excellent editorial Clint. Well done. It's exactly this kind of content that brings me back to this site almost daily.

Kruncher

 

[HookedOnSound]

Once bitten, twice shy

I agree with Clint's argument.

I would like to add that the fact the Digital Rights Management (DRM) hasn't been resolved entirely will mean a version upgrade that might make early products obsolete.

I'm holding back to upgrading to HDTV until the very last moment...and then some.

 

[Jack Hammer]

Nice article...

It sums up mostly how I feel about the whole topic. My DVD player has been slowly dying, and I've been considering buying a refurbished Denon 2910 to replace it, but didn't want to get burned with the format new formats coming out. I think I'll buy the 2910 (~$400) and enjoy it for a few years, before I upgrade to HD, assuming its still around. I can always put it in my bedroom with the old CRT tv when I upgrade.

Jack

 

[The Dukester]

Great articel, Clint. I have to pretty much agree. I would also agree with BTT917, however, that by phasing out standard DVD players and forcing people to buy the HD models is a way of helping to ensure their survival. Only problem with that is getting the sutdios to back them up with more software. Forcing folks into buying discs at $30 a pop and having to buy two players to be able to watch all the movies you want to see is not a good way to ensure their survival to me, however. I would think that if the disc prices stay high and the war continues that folks would just look to other ways to watch movies and rebel against all discs if they start phasing out SD DVDs.

I had the hots to buy a new receiver, DVD player and display, but think I may wait awhile till some of the dust settles. That Optoma DLP pj at under 2k sure does look like a mighty good stop-gap, though!

I see in the voting that 2 folks think the author is highly off base...can you say early adopters!?

 

[Audioholics]

Can you elaborate (or point to a post elsewhere) on Time Warner's upcoming technology rollout in SC? I was emailing back and forth with the director of marketing for TWC SC earlier this week, and she made some mention of a service about to be rolled out.

From talking to Stefan at church, this is what's coming to you guys in SC.

 

[mtrycrafts]

<A href="http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php"><IMG style="WIDTH: 125px; HEIGHT: 89px" alt=[highdefintionDVDwar] hspace=10 src="http://www.audioholics.com/news/thumbs/highdefintionDVDwar_th.jpg" align=left border=0></A>I’m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy – really, I’m rather optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most ridiculous thing I’ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its release, I began to understand the power of public mania.

[Read the Editorial]

There is no technical reason why there couldn't and won't be a universal DVD player, like the current ones for audio, to play both DVD formats. This is not the same competition as was with VHS/Beta as their cassettes were incompatible and perhaps the a universal tape player was not possible?
Since the TV standards are set to go HD, eventually most will have such a TV. As people get used to the high quality of HD broadcasting, I believe they will also transition beyond the DVD quality as well.
Failure? I don't see it but it may not be a quick acceptance.

 

[HTHOLIC]

I enormously disagree but to an extent I agree

Personally, I do agree with Clint that the new high deff buzz is way overpriced, standards aren't finazlied, and that it won't be the next thing such as DVD.

How many consumer households have HDTV's with HDMI many but with what percentage of America, I am not sure. So they won't benefit from a blu/hd dvd player. Format wars can be great sometimes as they benefit consumers if they don't outdue eachother, example DVD+R V. DVD-R, although this isn't the same battle.

However, with audio and video going through one HDMI cable, DTS-HD 7.1 and DOLBY HD 7.1 sound, I think its a new revolution for us audioholics.

Indeed however, hd-dvd players can't output to 1080p, blu-ray can but dts-hd is limited to 5.1 now. Right now the receivers can't do the high-def stuff and most of them don't have the last hdmi specification for DTS-HD and DOLBY TRUEHD formats.

For players costing hundreds and even a thousand dollars, I am not buying anything soon in that field. Atleast have 7.1 dtshd or dolby support in the player, that way we could use some 7.1 discreet sound for the first time. However, many movies are simply remixed for HD as they have been on DVD already. The movie however as shown in certain cinemas is given by Hollywood in 1080p.

 

[hopjohn]

Since the TV standards are set to go HD, eventually most will have such a TV. As people get used to the high quality of HD broadcasting, I believe they will also transition beyond the DVD quality as well.

I may be mistaken but there is no such provision to occur. Broadcaster's need only go digital, not HD The ATSC standards include 480p, which is classified as EDTV not HDTV.

Also keep in mind that Bush will be handing out 2 $40 dollar vouchers per household for people without HD capable sets. This is so they can purchase the tuner/downconverters to make their analog TVs work. So the 2009 deadline isn't going to force people to do anything if they don't want to.

 

[tomahawktim]

1. Nobody likes false starts

This just in,

Sony, a world leading electronics manufacturer, seeking to become a world leader in redefining the term "false start" has just announced the newest release date for the much anticipated BluRay Player.

Targeted Availability: On or About October 25, 2006.​

In other news, Sony, a world leading manufacturer of consumer electronics, said today that rumours of a delay in the release of its' much anticipated BluRay Player were just that, "Rumours, just rumours. Probably started by those evil HD DVD trolls."

 

[ivseenbetter]

I understand how people feel about the failure's of DVD-A and SACD and how that relates to HDTV but I can't get over how many people compare it to MP3 succes. The success of MP3 has nothing to do with the failure of the other formats and I don't think it should be used an example of why HD DVD is going to fail just because there is lower quality media readily available.

MP3's are marketed great for a specific use. But they don't replace the higher quaility stuff. MP3 players are portable. You take them with you when you are on the go (ie: the gym, in the car, on a plane, on a jog) and there is no way during any of these activities that somebody would be able to concentrate enough on the quality of sound to overly care about quality. The background noise during any of these activities would kill the quaility of any DVD-A benefit anyway, let alone you are just using headsets anyway. A lot of people listen to music on the go so there will always be a market for convenient music as oppossed to quality music.

I use my MP3 player for the above tasks...but when I am home I wouldn't dream of listening to an MP3 when I know I have better quality stuff lying around and there is no longer excessive background noise to concern me. So, saying people adopted MP3 over DVD-A and SACD is just ridiculous. They were two different markets and people need to look elsewhere for why DVD-A and SACD failed. Marketing would be my guess.

Those same types of convienence's that are important when considering what format of music you want to acquire do not apply equally to video. If convenience and mobility was more imporant to the consumer than quality is than why isn't everybody walking around with a PSP? They sell those things pretty cheap (when considering the grand scheme of things) and you can buy movies for them and the picture quality is pretty good too. But guess what, not many people are into using their PSP for mobile video...because nobody cares about mobile video. It doesn't have the same draw that mobile music has. People want high quality video at home. It will happen. I just don't know what format it will be in.

 

[JackT]

This just in,

Sony, a world leading electronics manufacturer, seeking to become a world leader in redefining the term "false start" has just announced the newest release date for the much anticipated BluRay Player.

Targeted Availability: On or About October 25, 2006.​

In other news, Sony, a world leading manufacturer of consumer electronics, said today that rumours of a delay in the release of its' much anticipated BluRay Player were just that, "Rumours, just rumours. Probably started by those evil HD DVD trolls."

Fortunately, if you are a BR advocate, other manufacturers are releasing their BR players on schedule. (The Samsung BD-P1000 is already available.)

 

[Tom Andry]

One of the points of the editorial was that the Blu-ray and HD-DVD discs aren't significantly different looking (physically) than DVDs. I think part of the success of the iPod and other MP3 players is due to the novelty of a completely new way of transporting your music. People don't go to a store to check out the latest DVD player (and I don't think they'll go to check out something that looks and feels just like one as well). They do go to check out something totally different like an iPod. Just my opinion.