How close are we to WWIII?

[GO-NAD!]

I don't think I can understate how goofy the term "holy war" is. Nor how dumb the religious right/Trump evangelical is. It's just toss out the word God when convenient.

Donald Trump invokes holy war as he gives final Easter Monday ultimatum to Iran

Writing on Truth Social, he reminded Iran of the deadline of ten days to open up the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, saying they had 48 hours left before "hell" will rain down on them - and declaring "Glory be to GOD!"

www.mirror.co.uk

It's not dumb, it's genius!

The Iranian apocalyptic theocracy rational liberal government will understand will see it as an existential threat and react to it like a bull seeing a red cape this holy war rhetoric, immediately recognize the futility of any further resistance, and surrender unconditionally!

 

[highfigh]

Now that the US went in illegally into Iran like they did Venezuela, you can be dammed sure that Iran's resolve to buil nuclear weapons have been hardened. Trump and his clusterf?ck administration failed to factor many aspects of the war including this. I have a feeling that homeland security will be on much higher alert now because of this.

OK, although they can't reach the US with any rockets, but they CAN hit many European locations. Why do they need nukes? Saddam Hussein is dead, so that threat is gone. Pakistan usually fights with India, so a non-issue unless Iran decides to become involved because "The enemy of my friend is my enemy" BS.

If Europe pays Iran for passage, the cost will not remain as agreed to.

 

[highfigh]

LOL

If you think this is funny, it would seem that you don't know the history of the Barbary pirates.

 

[highfigh]

Actually Iran owns half of the straight. Territorial waters extend 12 miles from the shoreline. The straight is 22 miles wide, and the UAE is on the other side. So Iran has jurisdiction over half of the straight and the UAE the other half. International waters begin 12 miles away from the shore line.

I meant 'the whole strait' and you know it. UAE has no reason to restrict shipping and I seriopusly doubt they will become allies with Iran, considering the recent attacks.

 

[TLS Guy]

I meant 'the whole strait' and you know it. UAE has no reason to restrict shipping and I seriopusly doubt they will become allies with Iran, considering the recent attacks.

Iran won't hesitate to go after ships in UAE waters, or international waters, and they already have. As long as Iran has any drones, or missiles any ships in the Straight will be highly vulnerable, and actually further away. Iran has set ships on fire a long way from the Straight of Hormuz.

 

[Mikado463]

I see we lost an F15 over Iran today, one crew member unaccounted for

Thankfully, second crew member found and rescued ........

 

[highfigh]

Iran won't hesitate to go after ships in UAE waters, or international waters, and they already have. As long as Iran has any drones, or missiles any ships in the Straight will be highly vulnerable, and actually further away. Iran has set ships on fire a long way from the Straight of Hormuz.

And they support the Houthis and Somalis, who have been a giant PITA for quite awhile.

 

[GO-NAD!]

OK, although they can't reach the US with any rockets, but they CAN hit many European locations. Why do they need nukes? Saddam Hussein is dead, so that threat is gone. Pakistan usually fights with India, so a non-issue unless Iran decides to become involved because "The enemy of my friend is my enemy" BS.

If Europe pays Iran for passage, the cost will not remain as agreed to.

They will see nuclear weapons as existential protection, just as Israel does. A poison pill, so to speak. If they were on the fence about it before, the past month will reduce any reticence they may have had. The regime may be fanatical, but they aren't suicidal. The chances that they would stage a preemptive strike are infinitesimally small. The "nuclear option" would most likely be employed if they were in danger of being overrun. Same as Israel.

 

[3db]

If Europe pays Iran for passage, the cost will not remain as agreed to.

Just like fuel surcharges being added on my every company that does shipping including airlines. Everything is profit driven.

Point is, US started this war without consulting NATO and smarter people than Trump and his cf adminisitration. NATO would have said no to the invasion because they would have reached the conclusion about the Strait of Hormuz being an economic chokepoint unlike the mentally challenged group that is running the US. Europe is looking after its own interests now just like Trump demonstrated with tarrifs and threats of annexation. Europe has learned that Trump and Trump's US cannot be fully trusted as allie any more. This is Europe saying f?ck Trump and f?ck Trump's US. I stand behind this 1000%.

 

[TLS Guy]

Just like fuel surcharges being added on my every company that does shipping including airlines. Everything is profit driven.

Point is, US started this war without consulting NATO and smarter people than Trump and his cf adminisitration. NATO would have said no to the invasion because they would have reached the conclusion about the Strait of Hormuz being an economic chokepoint unlike the mentally challenged group that is running the US. Europe is looking after its own interests now just like Trump demonstrated with tarrifs and threats of annexation. Europe has learned that Trump and Trump's US cannot be fully trusted as allie any more. This is Europe saying f?ck Trump and f?ck Trump's US. I stand behind this 1000%.

NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It has nothing to do with issues in Arabia, UAE, Iran, Israel or any other country that is not part of a land mass, or has shore line connected to to the North Atlantic Ocean. So that is USA, Canada, Iceland, UK, Ireland and all countries contiguous with countries that are part of the North Atlantic watershed, to the Western Russian border and are signatures to the North Atlantic treaty. Trump is too demented to know that. NATO has nothing to do with middle eastern military endeavors, and it certainly does not include the Straights of Hormuz!

 

[mtrycrafts]

They will see nuclear weapons as existential protection, just as Israel does. A poison pill, so to speak. If they were on the fence about it before, the past month will reduce any reticence they may have had. The regime may be fanatical, but they aren't suicidal. The chances that they would stage a preemptive strike are infinitesimally small. The "nuclear option" would most likely be employed if they were in danger of being overrun. Same as Israel.

Just like N. Korea. They have a bunch of nukes already. Why are they not treated like Iran? Because they have a bunch of nukes.
Iran will get there, a bunch of nukes, and then we will not attack them anymore.
Iran buys the suicidal folks.

We were lucky in WWII, with only two nukes and Japan perhaps thought we had a bunch more.

 

[3db]

NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It has nothing to do with issues in Arabia, UAE, Iran, Israel or any other country that is not part of a land mass, or has shore line connected to to the North Atlantic Ocean. So that is USA, Canada, Iceland, UK, Ireland and all countries contiguous with countries that are part of the North Atlantic watershed, to the Western Russian border and are signatures to the North Atlantic treaty. Trump is too demented to know that. NATO has nothing to do with middle eastern military endeavors, and it certainly does not include the Straights of Hormuz!

I know that TLS. You missed my point.

 

[Kingnoob]

I don't think I can understate how goofy the term "holy war" is. Nor how dumb the religious right/Trump evangelical is. It's just toss out the word God when convenient.

Donald Trump invokes holy war as he gives final Easter Monday ultimatum to Iran

Writing on Truth Social, he reminded Iran of the deadline of ten days to open up the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, saying they had 48 hours left before "hell" will rain down on them - and declaring "Glory be to GOD!"

www.mirror.co.uk

mAybe he should declare a holy war and say America is the new holy Roman republic ? Basically same government . Low pay workers are the slavers like Roman ones.
Haha same God that made everything temporary ? How many years left does trump have? 3 in office then what ? Queen Elizabeth was lost last , the British empire’s queen.

 

[highfigh]

They will see nuclear weapons as existential protection, just as Israel does. A poison pill, so to speak. If they were on the fence about it before, the past month will reduce any reticence they may have had. The regime may be fanatical, but they aren't suicidal. The chances that they would stage a preemptive strike are infinitesimally small. The "nuclear option" would most likely be employed if they were in danger of being overrun. Same as Israel.

That nuclear option WOULD be suicidal. They have continued their Uranium enrichment, even with all of the sanctions- not sure I would call that reticent.

 

[GO-NAD!]

That nuclear option WOULD be suicidal. They have continued their Uranium enrichment, even with all of the sanctions- not sure I would call that reticent.

I said "reticence", because of this:

Fatwa against nuclear weapons - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It may be BS, but that can't be assumed. Regardless, if they are still able to continue uranium enrichment, it would make sense (from their perspective) to put such an effort into overdrive.

 

[dlaloum]

Actually Iran owns half of the straight. Territorial waters extend 12 miles from the shoreline. The straight is 22 miles wide, and the UAE is on the other side. So Iran has jurisdiction over half of the straight and the UAE the other half. International waters begin 12 miles away from the shore line.

And while Iran is at war with the USA and Israel - non grata ships will be targeted...

Friends of Iran get through.
Fence Sitters have a sliding scale of costs/obligations

And the USA really can't complain as it is busy blockading Cuba...

If they want the straits opened, they either have to come to terms with Iran (and USA credibility in negotiations is currently zero - after having attacked DURING negotiations previously!) - or fully Invade Iran - with all that that implies (methinks this option is unlikely.... but then Trump/Hegseth are busy firing all the military advisers that warn them about how stupid this would be.... so maybe they will try this option, against the advice of every competent strategist!)

 

[dlaloum]

Just like N. Korea. They have a bunch of nukes already. Why are they not treated like Iran? Because they have a bunch of nukes.
Iran will get there, a bunch of nukes, and then we will not attack them anymore.
Iran buys the suicidal folks.

We were lucky in WWII, with only two nukes and Japan perhaps thought we had a bunch more.

Japan surrendered quickly, because it was at risk of being over-run by the Soviets, in addition to everything else...
It was not just the nukes

 

[dlaloum]

That nuclear option WOULD be suicidal. They have continued their Uranium enrichment, even with all of the sanctions- not sure I would call that reticent.

The previous Ayatolah Khamenei, maintained the fatwa against WMD's - against the advice of most of his military advisors.

The new Ayatola Ali Khamenei, has not spoken on the topic - currently the fatwa stands - but given that all their major war leaders were in favour of nukes.... I doubt we will hear a rescinding of the fatwa, before the nukes are ready to launch....

 

[dlaloum]

Iran doesn't own the strait. This is EXACTLY the same tactic as what the Barbary pirates used for a long time and only Jefferson had the balls to tell them to pound sand. If anyone believes that Iran will abide by any treaty, they're delusional- they'll just jack up the ransom and continue to buy & enrich Uranium. They already tested their 4000Km rocket- let's see how bad this goes.

And the US does not own the international waters around Cuba - that does not stop the blockade.

This is about "facts on the ground" - the USA has chosen to ignore International Law... so discussing who owns what, is a matter of "might makes right" - or "facts on the ground" rathern than international law.

Iran has the upper hand both tactically and strategically.... and unless the USA finds some way to overturn this, that situation is not going to change.

Iran can cheaply mine the straits, while keeping the section closest to Iran open - the section covered by their weapons.... and as a result, everyone has to deal with Iran.

 

[GO-NAD!]

If they want the straits opened, they either have to come to terms with Iran (and USA credibility in negotiations is currently zero - after having attacked DURING negotiations previously!)

Hmmm, this rings a bell. Have we seen something like this happening before...?