Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[SithZedi]

It's not like they have any real ideological connection. China is supporting Russia for entirely mercenary reasons - because the west supports Ukraine and also expecting reciprocal support from Russia for a possible invasion of Taiwan.

Yeah, I would agree that there are some African leaders in China's pockets, but I'm skeptical that it would have significant bearing on the matter.

Agree on ideological. With respect to the second point, I'll go with Frank's advice below:

 

[haraldo]

This seem to be great news, seems like Scholz and Germany is changing after the official visit to Kyiv and Bucha, the following below is posted in Ukraine now:

After a trip to Ukraine, Scholz said that Germany would not be able to resume its partnership with the russian federation in the near future:

“Partnership with the russian federation, like the one that was listed as a goal in the 2010 strategic concept, is unimaginable anytime soon with putler´s aggressive imperialist russia.”

source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/11497

 

[mtrycrafts]

While it would be great if Asian and African countries would get on board with supporting Ukraine and observing sanctions against Russia, I can understand their lack of empathy and their self-interest.

I suspect their lack of concern is a reflection of Ukraine being - to paraphrase Neville Chamberlain - a "faraway country of which we know nothing". It's a squabble amongst white people and of no concern to them.

Why Africa does not appear to be ‘standing with Ukraine’ | Russia-Ukraine war | Al Jazeera

These countries tend to be poor/developing, depend on Russian wheat imports and, if they can score a deal on oil, that opportunity cannot be passed up.

I wonder who they would ask for help if they were in serious trouble.

 

[haraldo]

This seem to be great news, seems like Scholz and Germany is changing after the official visit to Kyiv and Bucha, the following below is posted in Ukraine now:

View attachment 56593

After a trip to Ukraine, Scholz said that Germany would not be able to resume its partnership with the russian federation in the near future:

“Partnership with the russian federation, like the one that was listed as a goal in the 2010 strategic concept, is unimaginable anytime soon with putler´s aggressive imperialist russia.”

source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/11497

Can we trust Scholz?
Seels like he is changing opinions on things faster than I change socks?

 

[Mr._Clark]

This seem to be great news, seems like Scholz and Germany is changing after the official visit to Kyiv and Bucha, the following below is posted in Ukraine now:

View attachment 56593

After a trip to Ukraine, Scholz said that Germany would not be able to resume its partnership with the russian federation in the near future:

“Partnership with the russian federation, like the one that was listed as a goal in the 2010 strategic concept, is unimaginable anytime soon with putler´s aggressive imperialist russia.”

source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/11497

Russia's recent veiled threats to invade more countries may be waking them up.

 

[Trell]

Perhaps another miscalculation by Putin as this will hopefully make it abundantly clear to most Germans that Russia is not to be trusted and that any (large) energy dependency is bad.

>>>BERLIN, June 23 (Reuters) - Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its emergency gas plan on Thursday in response to falling Russian supplies but stopped short of allowing utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers in Europe's largest economy.

The measure is the latest escalation in a standoff between Europe and Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has exposed the bloc's dependence on Russian gas supplies and sparked a frantic search for alternative energy sources.

The step is largely symbolic, signalling to companies and households that painful cuts are on the way. But it marks a major shift for Germany, which cultivated strong energy ties with Moscow stretching back to the Cold War.

Lower gas flows sparked warnings this week that Germany could fall into recession if Russian supplies halted altogether. A major survey on Thursday showed the economy losing momentum in the second quarter. read more

"We must not fool ourselves: The cut in gas supplies is an economic attack on us by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin," Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in a statement. read more

Gas rationing would hopefully be avoided but cannot be ruled out, Habeck said and warned:

"From now on, gas is a scarce commodity in Germany ... We are therefore now obliged to reduce gas consumption, now already in summer."

Russia has denied the supply cuts were deliberate, with state supplier Gazprom (GAZP.MM) blaming a delay in return of serviced equipment caused by Western sanctions. The Kremlin on Thursday said Russia "strictly fulfils all its obligations" to Europe. ...<<<

Germany triggers gas alarm stage, accuses Russia of 'economic attack'

Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its emergency gas plan on Thursday in response to falling Russian supplies but stopped short of allowing utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers in Europe's largest economy.

www.reuters.com

 

[haraldo]

Hear the stories of Ukrainians who were forcibly resettled to Russia and escaped – The NYT

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, thousands of refugees from Ukraine have been sent to so-called filtration camps, where they have been interrogated and then forced to resettle to Russia.

Here are the accounts of some Ukrainians whose ordeal began when Russian forces attacked their home city of Mariupol.

source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/11503

 

[haraldo]

These are the kinds of people Ukraine needs

 

[Trell]

A western company would be forced by the government to ground their planes in a similar situation.

In Russia, Western planes are falling apart

Aircraft operators are running out of options after months of sanctions.

arstechnica.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like at least two of the HIMARS are operational in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540247955046912001

 

[SithZedi]

Russians seem to be having problems firing theirs. What a shame.

Russian missile U-turns and smashes into troops who fired it

The video was reported to be filmed in the early hours this morning near the town of Alchevsk in the Luhansk region, 55 miles south of Severodonetsk, where the fiercest fighting has been raging.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[SithZedi]

This article begs the question: What in the name of sanity was the Czech Republic doing sitting on all those Soviet era weapons as a significant component of their military force? They are a NATO member so how were they ever going to contribute effectively to a NATO crisis with those weapons? Were they even testing this 30 to 40 year old equipment? As a requirement of being a NATO member, audits should be performed to see where the money is going.

Czechia has exhausted its arms reserves supporting Ukraine, Czech PM reveals

Czechia has exhausted its stockpile of arms in helping Ukraine to defend itself following the invasion of Russian forces, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed on Thursday. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who thanked the Czech government for both its military...

rmx.news

 

[Trell]

This article begs the question: What in the name of sanity was the Czech Republic doing sitting on all those Soviet era weapons as a significant component of their military force? They are a NATO member so how were they ever going to contribute effectively to a NATO crisis with those weapons? Were they even testing this 30 to 40 year old equipment? As a requirement of being a NATO member, audits should be performed to see where the money is going.

Czechia has exhausted its arms reserves supporting Ukraine, Czech PM reveals

Czechia has exhausted its stockpile of arms in helping Ukraine to defend itself following the invasion of Russian forces, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed on Thursday. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who thanked the Czech government for both its military...

rmx.news

It should be very obvious that upgrading to NATO standard will take many years and is very expensive. In the meantime the old weaponry is there and can be used when needed, and they where: In Ukraine.

 

[GO-NAD!]

This article begs the question: What in the name of sanity was the Czech Republic doing sitting on all those Soviet era weapons as a significant component of their military force? They are a NATO member so how were they ever going to contribute effectively to a NATO crisis with those weapons? Were they even testing this 30 to 40 year old equipment? As a requirement of being a NATO member, audits should be performed to see where the money is going.

Czechia has exhausted its arms reserves supporting Ukraine, Czech PM reveals

Czechia has exhausted its stockpile of arms in helping Ukraine to defend itself following the invasion of Russian forces, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed on Thursday. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who thanked the Czech government for both its military...

rmx.news

The Czechs joined NATO in 1999. That may seem long enough to change over to western-supplied equipment, but current military procurement can be a painfully slow process - especially for one of the less affluent members. So, I'm not surprised by this.

 

[highfigh]

A western company would be forced by the government to ground their planes in a similar situation.

In Russia, Western planes are falling apart

Aircraft operators are running out of options after months of sanctions.

arstechnica.com

If I get your meaning, I would say " 'ground', 'crash', it's all semantics".

 

[Trell]

The Czechs joined NATO in 1999. That may seem long enough to change over to western-supplied equipment, but current military procurement can be a painfully slow process - especially for one of the less affluent members. So, I'm not surprised by this.

That is also around the time when countries in Europe thought that they could reduce military expenditure as Russia as appeared to be much more friendly and not such a threat anymore. Then we got the Great Recession in 2008 that hit so many countries very hard, including relatively poor ones like the Czech Republic.

 

[mtrycrafts]

It looks like at least two of the HIMARS are operational in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540247955046912001

Maybe they, Russians, will get a reality check what they have been doing?

 

[Mr._Clark]

Maybe they, Russians, will get a reality check what they have been doing?

I hope you're right, but I fear it's not nearly enough firepower given the Russian advantages in numbers.

The U.S. is reportedly working to get 4 more HIMARS into Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541430296729509889

Disclaimer: I do not know if this is a reliable source.

 

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like the U.S. will be sending more advanced shorter range surface to air defense missile systems (NASAMS) to Ukraine, along with “long-range air defense capabilities" of some sort.

It's better than nothing, but it doesn't seem like it's going to be enough to make a huge impact (that's just my impression based on what I've seen being reported from Ukraine, I have no special knowledge when it comes to this).

>>>As for the mention of “long-range air defense capabilities for the Ukrainians” in Sullivan’s statement, that remains a mystery. It may even refer to the future delivery of Patriot SAM systems, which would provide a highly capable upper-tier complement to the NASAMS, as well as bring a significant anti-ballistic missile capability. At this stage, however, there is no official word on other potential systems that might be headed to Ukraine and this could have been just how he described NASAMS.

In terms of NASAMS performance, the closest counterpart in Ukrainian service is likely the Cold War-era Buk (SA-11 Gadfly), a highly mobile tracked system that has reportedly been particularly successful but which has also suffered its fair share of attrition. The Buk has a maximum engagement range of 22 miles but shares the same problem as the S-300, in that only limited numbers (if any) are able to be transferred to Ukraine from NATO or other friendly nations.<<<

Ukraine To Get Same Surface-To-Air Missiles That Protect U.S. Capital: Report

Ukraine looks set for a much-needed upgrade to its hard-pressed Soviet-era ground-based air defense systems in the form of NASAMS.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like the U.S. will be sending more advanced shorter range surface to air defense missile systems (NASAMS) to Ukraine, along with “long-range air defense capabilities" of some sort.

It's better than nothing, but it doesn't seem like it's going to be enough to make a huge impact (that's just my impression based on what I've seen being reported from Ukraine, I have no special knowledge when it comes to this).

>>>As for the mention of “long-range air defense capabilities for the Ukrainians” in Sullivan’s statement, that remains a mystery. It may even refer to the future delivery of Patriot SAM systems, which would provide a highly capable upper-tier complement to the NASAMS, as well as bring a significant anti-ballistic missile capability. At this stage, however, there is no official word on other potential systems that might be headed to Ukraine and this could have been just how he described NASAMS.

In terms of NASAMS performance, the closest counterpart in Ukrainian service is likely the Cold War-era Buk (SA-11 Gadfly), a highly mobile tracked system that has reportedly been particularly successful but which has also suffered its fair share of attrition. The Buk has a maximum engagement range of 22 miles but shares the same problem as the S-300, in that only limited numbers (if any) are able to be transferred to Ukraine from NATO or other friendly nations.<<<

Here are a couple snips of Sullivan's statements concerning additional air defenses from earlier today:

>>>MR. SULLIVAN: So, he [Zelensky] did have some specific requests [when he spoke to Biden this morning]. His first request in the presentation he made was for further air defense systems. In particular, at the top of his mind was the set of missile strikes that took place in Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine, and his desire to get additional air defense capabilities that could shoot down Russian missiles out in sky. . . . So what I will tell you is this: that by the end of this week, we’ll make sure that you get some expert military briefers who can walk through what it will actually mean tangibly, in terms of the defense of Ukrainian airspace and particularly population centers. <<<

On-the-Record Press Gaggle by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan | The White House

12:55 P.M. CEST MR. SULLIVAN: All right. Well, first, I want to make maximum use of your time, so the only thing I’d say at the top is the President had

www.whitehouse.gov

I have to believe that the NASAM deal has been in the works for some time, but the timing of the WH briefing seems to be tied to Russia's launch of cruise missiles from Belarusian airspace on Saturday:

>>>Russian forces launched missile attacks from Belarus on Saturday in the first strikes of their kind since Russia abandoned its offensives north and east of Kyiv.
A wave of six Russian Tu-22M3 “Backfire” bombers launched 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Belarusian airspace at ground targets in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts. The Ukrainian government claimed this is thus far the first time Russian aircraft have launched airstrikes on Ukrainian territory from Belarusian airspace.<<<

Ukraine Situation Report: Russians Renew Missile Attacks From Belarus

Russian bombers struck from Belarus for the first time Saturday while it appears Sievierodonetsk has finally fallen to Russian forces.

www.thedrive.com

Unfortunately, Ukraine appears to have very little in the way of air defenses right now that can protect against this type of an attack.

And, the reported Russian supply of more advanced missiles to Belarus looks like it was triggered by Lukashenko getting uneasy about the consequences to Belarus for letting Russia use Belarus to launch attacks into Ukraine:

>>>WARSAW, Poland — Russia will provide nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles to Belarus and upgrade the country’s fighter jets to allow them to carry tactical atomic weapons, President Vladimir Putin said over the weekend.

A “decision was made in our country: Within the next several months, we will transfer to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which are known to use both ballistic and cruise missiles, both conventional and nuclear,” Putin said on June 25 following a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko.<<<

Russia to provide nuclear-capable missiles and fighter jets to Belarus

The latest development comes as the two countries are tightening their military cooperation in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

www.defensenews.com

It might be just my imagination, but in recent photos Lukashenko looks like he's not sleeping well these days. I guess that's one consequence of getting into bed with the devil.