Is Netflix Crumbling?

[jinjuku]

Just saw they took a ~40% stock price haircut.

All the other players in the space have caught up with them in the streaming space and the rash of price hikes have given people long memories.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Besides pricing hikes, the major issue is the lack of high-quality content. They went with quantity over quality and now beginning to pay the price for this strategy. 35% is too way too harsh, I'd say right now the stock is very cheap to buy

 

[BMXTRIX]

The idea that Netflix would exist as it was, indefinitely, would have been very shortsighted.

The ability to stream is easy. Not really, but really, it is. The idea that all the movie producers would simply pull their content onto their own pay platform seemed flat out inevitable to me. The idea that we could get away from 'cable' to streaming services that would save us money is almost a joke for the long term. The cable companies weren't ripping people off, they were just having to deal with the requirements that were being imposed by others.

Now, to get the same level of service, you have to buy a dozen different services, put up an antenna, and hope that things don't change next week.

Netflix is getting by with their new content that they provide, but I'm about done with them. It was all the great shows and their long list of titles they had which made it really worthwhile. Now... just not so much. I'm not shocked at all.

 

[jinjuku]

I'd say right now the stock is very cheap to buy

Catch a falling knife or good to go is the question.

 

[}Fear_Inoculum{]

Netflix is terrible. They put out schitt original content. They have old schitt movies on there. The video/audio quality is abysmal. And lastly they keep jacking up the cost. If my wife didn't watch shows on there, I'd have canceled it 2 years ago.

Of the 4 streaming services I subscribe too, I'd rank them in this order based on audio/video quality:

1) AppleTV
2) Disney +



3) Amazon Prime



























4) Netflix

 

[ryanosaur]

I see the possibility of a correction for overvalued stock price as a distinct possibility. Their continued success would be measured in how they pivot at this point. Hidden in their letter was the point that the test program for billing inter-household account sharing would likely be rolled out across the board in a years time.
Some of their content is very good, some not. Sadly, there is a lot I'm just not interested in, but I'm an outlier in that regard.
Regardless, it seems like there was the expectation their stock will slide a bit more in the short term. I am considering adding them, but I still want to see them do something more than they have over the last few years. What that is?... I can't say. Yet, the account sharing is something they have long identified as a thorn in their corporate performance.
If they charged $3 per additional extra-household account as they have in their test program, and cap that at 2, maybe 3 per premium account, I could see that working for them as a more sustainable future policy.
If they choose to be more draconian about it, they will need to offer much more high quality programming to drive interest in new and continued subscriptions. That is a double edged knife and they can cut themselves much more deeply with a misstep.

 

[Replicant 7]

Yeah, I just read the article, still though Netflix is a good deal. With tax 21.88 I have their top tier, also a OTA antenna which I only use for local news and live sports. The programs on OTA are horrible, with 60 + a day lawyer commercials, medical commercials Medicare Advantage commercials. Cox cable would run me over 200 a month with my internet service with them. So 22 bucks a month for endless streaming of 1000's of movies, documentaries and so is a very good deal. Plus I get to keep my sanity. Commercial TV sucks.

 

[Danzilla31]

They have been operating in debt for years. Banking on the fact that they could catch up. A chunk of that debt is in producing new content due to them seeing the writing on the wall with companies copying there platform and pulling there content to there platforms.

Problem is a lot of the content hasn't been that good lately. And there is so much competition now. They always banked on there growth catching up with there debt. Don't know if they can pull that off anymore

 

[jinjuku]

Yet, the account sharing is something they have long identified as a thorn in their corporate performance.
If they charged $3 per additional extra-household account as they have in their test program, and cap that at 2, maybe 3 per premium account, I could see that working for them as a more sustainable future policy.

I think that is actually going to bite them in the ass. I pay for 4 streams. My parents use 1. I'll consider it another nickle & dime.

In no uncertain terms have I ever been able to get a 5th concurrent stream going on Netflix.

 

[SithZedi]

This is a hurtful topic for me as I have been shorting their stock on and off for years and it keeps defying expectations and I lose each time with small bets. Was also a subscriber in the early years with House of Cards, etc, but then cut it when they cut some good old content down and promoted their own produced new. I replaced that gap with Amazon Prime, which I was paying for anyway, and free streaming through Pluto & Peacock, there's alot of free out there still.

Also, don't discount the 'culture' factor here. They lost a lot of subscribers when they were promoting their "Cuties" show. That did not help their reputation in traditional households who are 50% of the demographic. Then came Ryan Murphy's $300m deal that has produced content that again doesn't appeal to that demographic. It's bad business to write off 50% of your audience. There are analysts talking about this same effect for Disney long term. The Covid lock down numbers helped offset that demographic loss but that was a temporary effect. Reality is staring them in the face.

 

[Eppie]

Bear in mind that Netflix is reportedly used in over 50% of American homes. Oct. 2021 data showed almost 74M paying subscribers in the U.S. and Canada. They're not going to disappear overnight.

 

[Teetertotter?]

We have both Prime and Netflix. Wife watches the TV series on Netflix and and I go back in forth with the both for movies. I don't foresee changing anything, unless Netflix starts to insert commercials.

We have Roku on his and hers TV's and there are apps having free movies with short commercials, that I have lived through.

We have DTV satellite with some movie channels too, that I will record and watch later. Wife will use the On Demand, at times, for TV series.

People bitch and moan, and there are some alternatives with plenty of content. Pick what suits your fancy folks.

 

[Replicant 7]

Bear in mind that Netflix is reportedly used in over 50% of American homes. Oct. 2021 data showed almost 74M paying subscribers in the U.S. and Canada. They're not going to disappear overnight.

I just read they still have 219 million subscribers world wide.

 

[lovinthehd]

Netflix isn't as strong with content now that other content owners have started their own services (and raised prices to Netflix as well?) but they still have more than all the others. Netflix disc rentals also have been hit by content issues (and lack of blurays to an extent these days). I still can find new (to me at least) stuff to watch with both services, tho. I also subscribe to Amazon Prime, very little new there to watch that I'm interested in. Same for Apple, Disney. They're all spread a bit thin to an extent and it could well be a war that Netflix's financial position isn't the best for. Wall street may not be happy with new subscriber growth, but is the stock price going to hurt Netflix particularly? Did they do some massive buybacks of their own shares? They're still more on the too big to fail side for now I think.

 

[jinjuku]

Netflix just announced an Advertisement tier.

 

[Danzilla31]

Netflix just announced an Advertisement tier.

Damn that says a lot right there

 

[ryanosaur]

Netflix just announced an Advertisement tier.

#facepalm
I’ve heard some chatter about that. Didn’t think it was gaining traction. If they are ready to roll it out this fast though, clearly they've had it in their pocket for a minute or two.

 

[lovinthehd]

They're not the only ones with ads, tho.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

I was done with Netflix 8 years ago.

But my wife and 2 daughters are Netflix users for life. So I'm stuck paying for Netflix.

 

[SithZedi]

Musk's take for what it's worth. Total debt @16B from 10B in 2018, legacy content expenses increasing, current original content not resonating with the viewers. It's going to be a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516600269899026432