Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[mtrycrafts]

That would be a mistake by Putin, unless NATO just fails to act aggressively via a launch of their own and if the NATO equipped countries do launch, then you have WWIII and millions will die in Europe and the US along with Russia civilians. So we have to ask ourselves, do you live in an area that would be targeted by a Russian Nuke ?

From the battlefield in Ukraine, everything is a target for Putlin.

 

[Swerd]

Some reports state that Putin has committed up to 75% of his forces in Ukraine (link below). I find myself wondering what would happen if NATO started massing troops in Estonia and Latvia on the border with Russia. It would be a relatively short drive from there to Moscow if Putin didn't shift his military assets north away from Ukraine.

Given how degraded his forces are right now, it is somewhat tempting, at least as a thought experiment (I'm not seriously suggesting it, and I have absolutely zero input on NATO deployments here in the real world)

You're not the only one to think that.

 

[haraldo]

the only messages putler understands are the ones that come with "brute force"

 

[GO-NAD!]

Russia is engaging in ethnic cleansing. Their entire military needs to be totally obliterated. Biden needs to draw a starker line in the sand; either you are with the free world or you are with despotic autocracies. This message needs to be sent domestically by Biden as well as abroad since too many American conservatives support Putin's brand of evil. Cut off the countries that support Russia. This is an axis vs allies scenario. Force China and India to pick a side, and then end economic and diplomatic relations with them if they side with Russia.

We need Biden to message the ideology behind this conflict better. His policies are good, but his messaging sucks. We need him to bring out his inner Winston Churchill. We also need to bring huge punitive actions against companies that still do business in Russia. Everyone should take a close look at this list; boycott any business that gets anything less than a B on that list. In a capitalistic democracy, any purchase from a company that still does business with Russia is an endorsement of and a vote for Russia's aggression.

There's no way that an inner Winston Churchill is lurking around Biden's psyche. And, with his speech impediment, he can't fake Churchill's oratorical skills. But, I think we need to thank our lucky stars that he's in office right now, rather than Trump.

 

[GO-NAD!]

It's interesting how many European companies continued to export weapons to Russia after the 2014 ban (link below).

>>>Missiles, aircraft, rockets, torpedoes, bombs. Russia continued to buy EU weapons until at least 2020. Despite the ongoing embargo, ten member states exported € 346 million worth of military equipment, according to public data analysed by Investigate Europe. Some of these weapons could be used against Ukraine now.<<<

The following is inexplicable to me:

>>>But Europe is not alone in having to deal with contradictions regarding their exports. According to SIPRI’s data on arms exports, there’s an even stranger fact: it was not just the EU selling arms to Russia after the annexation of Crimea – Russia also remained the second biggest market for weapons exports from Ukraine.<<<

Were these just a few individual companies in Ukraine that decided to dodge the ban in order to make a few quick $? (I have not tried to dig into this any further, so I don't know what the answer is).

EU member states exported weapons to Russia after the 2014 embargo

EU member states exported weapons to Russia after the 2014 embargo

www.investigate-europe.eu

It's completely explicable to me. The multinational joint-stock company is, by its very nature, completely amoral.* There is nothing new under the sun.

Ford and the Führer | The Nation


*Just to be clear, I understand that capitalism, including incorporated businesses have contributed immensely to western prosperity. But, since the primary motivation is making money, it requires strict regulation. When those in political power are in a conflict of interest with business, such regulation tends to be woefully inadequate.

 

[highfigh]

Everyone live in an area that could be targeted, the mach-10 capable rockets reach US in 20 minutes

Obviously, the time will depend on the launch site and target, but the capability is only claimed, not proved. Also, their range is said to be about 2000 Km, so they would need to fly close before launching and really, what would be their first targets? Would they be tactical, or just a large populated city in order to kill a lot of people who aren't engaged in war?

I think we could stop their jets before they would be close enough.

 

[highfigh]

Just so we are aware of facts, the AN-124 is a Ukrainian built, Ukrainian engineered aircraft. produced at the Antonov factory outside of Kyiv, engines come from Motor-sich in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, these guys made simply unreal jet engines and helicopter engines.... those Ukraninan engineers were world class!

As far as I understand those Motor Sich Progress D-18T engines from the early 1980´s are pretty close to the same powerful as the hypermodern Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 and General Electric GEnx usedd in the Boeing 787 dreamliner.

IMHO russian engineering is not even close to what those guys were doing!

I know- I have seen AN-124 at the EAA event in Oshkosh, WI- they're absolutely huge and seeing it fly was impressive.

 

[highfigh]

I can only find reference to one AN124 grounded in Canada. It hasn't been seized, but can't leave because Canadian airspace is closed to Russian aircraft.

Sorry, the one arrested in Canada made it 13, the other 12 were ordered arrested by Ukrainian court.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/846081-court-arrests-12-ruslan-aircraft-of-russian-airline-volga-dnepr-worth-uah-2-billion-heraschenko

 

[haraldo]

I know- I have seen AN-124 at the EAA event in Oshkosh, WI- they're absolutely huge and seeing it fly was impressive.

I visited Motor Sich museum where those engines were made, UNREAL

 

[highfigh]

Some reports state that Putin has committed up to 75% of his forces in Ukraine (link below). I find myself wondering what would happen if NATO started massing troops in Estonia and Latvia on the border with Russia. It would be a relatively short drive from there to Moscow if Putin didn't shift his military assets north away from Ukraine.

Given how degraded his forces are right now, it is somewhat tempting, at least as a thought experiment (I'm not seriously suggesting it, and I have absolutely zero input on NATO deployments here in the real world)

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates

The latest Speed Read,/speed-reads,,speed-reads, breaking news, comment, reviews and features from the experts at The Week

theweek.com

Drive? Why would they drive to Moscow? It would be a much quicker war if they fly, bomb and leave.

If this is 75% of the Russian army, they're f&cked if it escalates to the point where NATO needs to step in. If Russia can't even protect their aircraft from Ukraine, I seriously doubt they'll be able to survive air to air sorties and their RADAD installations will be the first to go before the bombers.

If we (NATO) do go in, he'll launch nukes and state "How could they attack us when our military is so depleted?".

 

[highfigh]

I visited Motor Sich museum where those engines were made, UNREAL

Boeing has service facilities in the Middle East and India that are 2 million square feet, built by an American construction firm- sounds gigantic, but it's not much more than 432 meters, square. i would imagine a place where huge aircraft are built would be larger.

 

[highfigh]

There's no way that an inner Winston Churchill is lurking around Biden's psyche. And, with his speech impediment, he can't fake Churchill's oratorical skills. But, I think we need to thank our lucky stars that he's in office right now, rather than Trump.

You're forgetting that the WH could overdub his dialog.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Some reports state that Putin has committed up to 75% of his forces in Ukraine (link below). I find myself wondering what would happen if NATO started massing troops in Estonia and Latvia on the border with Russia. It would be a relatively short drive from there to Moscow if Putin didn't shift his military assets north away from Ukraine.

Given how degraded his forces are right now, it is somewhat tempting, at least as a thought experiment (I'm not seriously suggesting it, and I have absolutely zero input on NATO deployments here in the real world)

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates

The latest Speed Read,/speed-reads,,speed-reads, breaking news, comment, reviews and features from the experts at The Week

theweek.com

Even as a thought experiment, I don't think we get very far, with all the variables to account for - even if nuclear weapons remain off the table. Sure, Russian ground forces couldn't repel a NATO invasion, but what about the Russian Navy and Air Force? NATO would need to establish air supremacy and I don't know how easy that would be. Plus, I have no doubt that NATO countries' merchant shipping would become targets for Russian submarines.

And, how would China react? With NATO tied up with Russia, I would expect China to move against Taiwan.

I think a more interesting scenario would be for NATO to build up forces in Poland, announce that enough is enough and we are moving into Ukraine. We will not fire a shot unless fired upon, but we will occupy the entire country. The Russians may move their forces back to Russia and do so unmolested. But, if they choose not to leave, their assets will be seized as NATO forces progress. Or, if they choose to fire upon NATO forces, will be destroyed.

Then, the investigation of atrocities would begin along with the calculation of damages for reparations purposes.

 

[GO-NAD!]

You're forgetting that the WH could overdub his dialog.

I'm not sure that would have the desired impact.

 

[highfigh]

I'm not sure that would have the desired impact.

Especially if the dialog continues while he's standing there with his eyes closed, looking like he's asleep.

 

[highfigh]

Even as a thought experiment, I don't think we get very far, with all the variables to account for - even if nuclear weapons remain off the table. Sure, Russian ground forces couldn't repel a NATO invasion, but what about the Russian Navy and Air Force? NATO would need to establish air supremacy and I don't know how easy that would be. Plus, I have no doubt that NATO countries' merchant shipping would become targets for Russian submarines.

And, how would China react? With NATO tied up with Russia, I would expect China to move against Taiwan.

I think a more interesting scenario would be for NATO to build up forces in Poland, announce that enough is enough and we are moving into Ukraine. We will not fire a shot unless fired upon, but we will occupy the entire country. The Russians may move their forces back to Russia and do so unmolested. But, if they choose not to leave, their assets will be seized as NATO forces progress. Or, if they choose to fire upon NATO forces, will be destroyed.

Then, the investigation of atrocities would begin along with the calculation of damages for reparations purposes.

I'm not sure Russia has an Air Force that's as large as they say, or as capable. They have subs, but we usually know where they are at all times because we have been playing 'Cat & Mouse' for decades, with the occasional 'Whack A Mole' incident.

 

[cpp]

Everyone live in an area that could be targeted, the mach-10 capable rockets reach US in 20 minutes

Russia wold have to use their RDS-220 Tsar bomb ( 50 million Tons) to attempt to destroy its aggressors. BUt it would have to get it here first by plane. IN a Russian test near the Artic Circle , though the bomb detonated nearly 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) above ground, the resulting shockwave stripped the island as bare and flat as a skating rink for 34 sq miles.. Onlookers saw the flash more than 600 miles (965 km) away, and felt its incredible heat within 160 miles (250 km) of Ground Zero. The bomb's gargantuan mushroom cloud climbed to just below the edge of space. BUt yes, they would flood the sky with nuke rockets at all Nato countires

 

[cpp]

People that want some type of US involvement meaning battle involvement, missiles, planes and then boots and equipment on the ground, it appears have never been to war. Are these people ready to go pick up arms and fight in Russia. Blows my mind.,

 

[GO-NAD!]

I'm not sure Russia has an Air Force that's as large as they say, or as capable. They have subs, but we usually know where they are at all times because we have been playing 'Cat & Mouse' for decades, with the occasional 'Whack A Mole' incident.

The Russian air force has some quite capable aircraft and while they would be heavily outnumbered by combined NATO air forces, they also have the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, which is considered to be very sophisticated. The Ukrainians have the previous generation S-300 system, which is why the Russians have been quite judicious about sending their high value aircraft into Ukrainian airspace. NATO will not be cavalier about sending $50,000,000 aircraft and highly trained pilots into Russian territory without good assurance that they will be coming back.

As for submarines, the ones NATO navies try to tail are the SSBNs* which, if the conflict stays conventional, will not be the primary concern. It will be the SSNs (likely going after NATO warships) and SSKs that will be targeting merchant shipping that will be the major concern. Today's merchant fleets are a small fraction of their size (in numbers of hulls) during WW2, but the ships are absolutely massive in size, carrying proportionately more cargo. This makes shipping much more vulnerable. Russia has about 20 Kilo-Class SSKs in service. They could do a lot of damage to merchant shipping.

*This is not a perfect science and while there are occasions when a Russian boat has been tailed from start to finish of its patrol, I doubt this happens the majority of the time.

 

[GO-NAD!]

This does not look good on Mexico.
Russia's war with Ukraine made it a global pariah — but it still has friends in Mexico | CBC News