Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[SithZedi]

We should have made the sanctions 8 years ago whenever russia invaded Ukraine, there's been a war in Ukraine for 8 years and we kind of closed our eyes to it thinking it would probably go away.... it would have been easier stopping putler then but we were all too coward and too weak!

I have no idea how to stop the war, other than someone "dealing with" putler

Agree about the 8 year civil war. Very few in the Western media covered it as they should have because it would have exposed Western leaders and strategy in a bad light.

 

[SithZedi]

Haraldo, not all Westerners were blind to this situation. There were many in power and academia who saw what was developing but were not listened to. Here is brief snippet from a speech given by a Western leader while in Warsaw during the time frame 1994 to present day that captured the international chess board as it stood at the time. History is a harsh teacher.

We are fighting hard against radical Islamic terrorism, and we will prevail. We cannot accept those who reject our values and who use hatred to justify violence against the innocent.

Today, the West is also confronted by the powers that seek to test our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our interests. To meet new forms of aggression, including propaganda, financial crimes, and cyberwarfare, we must adapt our alliance to compete effectively in new ways and on all new battlefields.

We urge Russia to cease its destabilizing activities in Ukraine and elsewhere, and its support for hostile regimes — including Syria and Iran — and to instead join the community of responsible nations in our fight against common enemies and in defense of civilization itself.

 

[haraldo]

Haraldo, not all Westerners were blind to this situation. There were many in power and academia who saw what was developing but were not listened to. Here is brief snippet from a speech given by a Western leader while in Warsaw during the time frame 1994 to present day that captured the international chess board as it stood at the time. History is a harsh teacher.

We are fighting hard against radical Islamic terrorism, and we will prevail. We cannot accept those who reject our values and who use hatred to justify violence against the innocent.

Today, the West is also confronted by the powers that seek to test our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our interests. To meet new forms of aggression, including propaganda, financial crimes, and cyberwarfare, we must adapt our alliance to compete effectively in new ways and on all new battlefields.

We urge Russia to cease its destabilizing activities in Ukraine and elsewhere, and its support for hostile regimes — including Syria and Iran — and to instead join the community of responsible nations in our fight against common enemies and in defense of civilization itself.

I agree, there were quite a few that were advocating more actions, but the big decisionmakers thought putler would go away if we just closed our eyes, that's like inviting the wolf to the teaparty....

putler goes further because he wasn't stopped when we had the chance
well, maybe it's the end of putler coming up!

 

[haraldo]

This is the mood in Ukraine now

Please don't stop the music!

 

[haraldo]

Imagine if Putin attacked any other European country
Today it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it will be the whole of Europe. Russia will stop at nothing.

Still think that it does not concern you?

Meanwhile, Russian propagandists are already discussing the plans of attacking Poland and the Baltic states on TV.

#closethesky #StopPutin #StopRussia

 

[haraldo]

 

[haraldo]

 

[haraldo]

Words are lost .... watching this

 

[Mr._Clark]

Bellingcat and the WSJ are reporting that 3 members of the delegation discussing peace with the Russians on 3-4 of March developed symptoms consistent with chemical poisoning (one of the negotiators was Roman Abramovich).

It appears to me that causation has not been shown yet, so I'm not sure what to make of it right now. This is pure speculation on my part, but if it's shown that they were poisoned, I predict that the Russian government will say it was a false flag operation perpetrated by Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508463513013997580

 

[highfigh]

One can argue if USA, UK and France is really standing up the their obligations from the 1994 Budapest memorandum. In 1994 Ukraine revoked their nuclear weapons, in return of guaranteed safety and integrity

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1]

So this really is on Putin's head- he's supposed to adhere to any agreements that were signed before he became president.

OK, so what should the US do? Any shot fired by one of our troops will be seen as an act of war by Putin, which means he'll ramp up whatever force he sees fit, contingent on their capabilities and at this point, we haven't seen much more than choppers, a few Migs and Sukois, tanks, rockets and a bit of naval activity- certainly no heavy bombers or large numbers of fighters. None of the three can just waltz in and hammer the Russian troops without a huge escalation of this BS. It's easy for people in neutral countries to say "You should be doing more!" but usually, there's no thought about what can be done without causing Putin to go off-script and blow up the whole region.

 

[haraldo]

So this really is on Putin's head- he's supposed to adhere to any agreements that were signed before he became president.

OK, so what should the US do?

I don´t know..... That´s probably why I´m not a state leader
But russians are already discussing a large scale invasion of EU countries....

 

[highfigh]

I don´t know..... That´s probably why I´m not a state leader
But russians are already discussing a large scale invasion of EU countries....

Was this discussion before or after Blinky's nine word eff-up? Sure, he said what many people think, but he's not supposed to say it.

Well, if that happens, they WILL be killed- it's part of why NATO exists. Nobody wants this but in all honesty, I'll be more sad about the lost Russian architecture than the lives of anyone who attacks more countries. I think they know what the US has as far as armaments, but don't really understand how devastating the attacks would be if they choose this path. Also, most countries have capabilities that aren't widely known and some of ours were shown in the past 32 years.

I have seen comments by the Biden administration, saying that this war was unexpected.

And they think they have a handle on things.....

 

[GO-NAD!]

I don´t know..... That´s probably why I´m not a state leader
But russians are already discussing a large scale invasion of EU countries....

If they do, they are in for a wicked hammering. I don't think they're quite that stupid.

 

[Mr._Clark]

If they do, they are in for a wicked hammering. I don't think they're quite that stupid.

I realize there's a school of thought that says don't underestimate your enemy's intelligence, but I would posit that with regards to Putin the greater danger is underestimating how stupid he is.

 

[cpp]

One can argue if USA, UK and France is really standing up the their obligations from the 1994 Budapest memorandum. In 1994 Ukraine revoked their nuclear weapons, in return of guaranteed safety and integrity

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1]

But that doesn't mean going to war. Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I realize there's a school of thought that says don't underestimate your enemy's intelligence, but I would posit that with regards to Putin the greater danger is underestimating how stupid he is.

To widen a war - that you are clearly making a hash of - to include an inordinately stronger opponent would be a level of stupidity that I can't imagine.

 

[GO-NAD!]

But that doesn't mean going to war. Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.

Which makes such assurances of very little value.

 

[highfigh]

If they do, they are in for a wicked hammering. I don't think they're quite that stupid.

Never think someone is stupid when they're actually crazy.

 

[highfigh]

But that doesn't mean going to war. Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.

You may want to listen to what Biden said over the weekend.

 

[Mojo Navigator]

I had a Ukrainian uncle who survived WW2. I spent a lot of time listening to his personal history. FWIW take my post with a grain of salt.

WW2 was a colossal poop show and Ukraine suffered disproportionately. At the time Ukraine was an integral part of the USSR. Hence, conscription was brutally enforced. If you resisted conscription and were deemed an enemy collaborator, you could be executed on the spot. This was standard Bolshevik practice.

The German army also had a practice of recruiting locals who sought independence/liberation from the USSR/Russians. They exploited these divisions in every country they invaded. Which partially accounts for the early success of the Blitzkreig strategy. Of course, it was a scam. They just wanted hard fighting locals to assist in their conquests. They never intended to liberate any lands, if they prevailed in the war. This left Ukrainian men little choice. There was no practical option of joining any Western army.

I would not consider Wiki to be a scholarly account of manpower numbers, as they have been distorted by all sides. However, one only needs to look at the number of Ukrainian immigrants post-WW2 to appreciate the anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. This can partially explain the Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression that we see today.

Fascist elements exist in every country, America included, but the current movement in Ukraine is overwhelmingly based upon the historical concepts of freedom, sovereignty and self-determination. Without those principles there will be no future for the Ukrainian people.

Labeling all Ukrainians Neo-fascist based upon a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of WW2 is playing into Russian propaganda.