Russia - Ukraine

[mtrycrafts]

Where do find these people!?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496289549705744384

What an A hole that guy is. or even worse.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This is an excellent interview well worth reading.

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.

www.politico.com

This is what caught my eye:

>>>Hill spent many years studying history, and in our conversation, she repeatedly traced how long arcs and trends of European history are converging on Ukraine right now. We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.<<<

I've had the same sense, but I didn't really want to face up to it.

This is also interesting:

>>>[70 is] old for Russians. And Putin’s not looking so great, he’s been rather puffy-faced. We know that he has complained about having back issues. Even if it’s not something worse than that, it could be that he’s taking high doses of steroids, or there may be something else. There seems to be an urgency for this that may be also driven by personal factors.<<<

Watching recent videos of Putin, I can't help but wonder if he's having serious health issues and perhaps mental issues of some sort. I've watched the video of him telling his defense minister and chief of the military's general staff to put the nuclear forces on a special regime of combat duty several times:

Putin Puts Russia's Nuclear Forces on High Alert

The order raises the threat that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and the West's response could boil into nuclear warfare

time.com

I'm not an expert on body language by an means, but Putin's demeanor in this video seems very strange. Perhaps he's concerned that someone in the Russian military will decide he's gone too far and will take him out for the good of the country.

Overall, the interview with Hill does not give me the warm fuzzies, to say the least.

 

[Alex2507]

Seeing body bags of fallen soldiers could very likely dampen any enthusiasm for the invasion, though.

I like killing them to dampen that enthusiasm. 100% guaranteed to dampen the sh!t out of that enthusiasm. Oh, and guess where I'm going after I get done killing you since you came to kill my family and take my country ...

I have sympathy for young Russian conscripts who didn't ask to be sent into Ukraine.

Then you're probably not on board with killing their entire families back home in Russia just for spite when it's over.

 

[SithZedi]

This is what caught my eye:

>>>Hill spent many years studying history, and in our conversation, she repeatedly traced how long arcs and trends of European history are converging on Ukraine right now. We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.<<<

I've had the same sense, but I didn't really want to face up to it.

This is also interesting:

>>>[70 is] old for Russians. And Putin’s not looking so great, he’s been rather puffy-faced. We know that he has complained about having back issues. Even if it’s not something worse than that, it could be that he’s taking high doses of steroids, or there may be something else. There seems to be an urgency for this that may be also driven by personal factors.<<<

Watching recent videos of Putin, I can't help but wonder if he's having serious health issues and perhaps mental issues of some sort. I've watched the video of him telling his defense minister and chief of the military's general staff to put the nuclear forces on a special regime of combat duty several times:

Putin Puts Russia's Nuclear Forces on High Alert

The order raises the threat that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and the West's response could boil into nuclear warfare

time.com

I'm not an expert on body language by an means, but Putin's demeanor in this video seems very strange. Perhaps he's concerned that someone in the Russian military will decide he's gone too far and will take him out for the good of the country.

Overall, the interview with Hill does not give me the warm fuzzies, to say the least.

Indeed. Don't know if he's seriously ill but that doesn't make me feel better about his mental condition. Normally he'd be getting little sleep during this time and that alone could be mentally debilitating.
The reports of disagreements with his top military staff on the setbacks are additionally ominous news. But that's the nature of dictatorships. After so long in power, they end up being surrounded by yes men who provide little value beyond his own opinion.

Another thing vexing him is there has not been this large of a war of this size in many years. As some would say, the "turkey shoots" of the Gulf Wars presented mismatched forces. This is more of a Peer to Peer war, i.e. similar weapons technology being used against each other. The numerical superiority of the Russians is being offset by the ferocious defense by the Ukrainians.

 

[TLS Guy]

I agree and said in my first post on this thread that WW III had begun, and I think it has.

The Russians have now committed numerous war crimes. The most serious being the use of cluster bombs on civilian populations. They have attacked schools, killed children and engaged in looting.

Now Putin has sent weapons of mass destruction into the theater of war. A thermobaric rocket launcher has now been seen in Ukraine. A thermobaric bomb is only one step down from a nuclear bomb. It causes devastating damage and casualties.

The opinion in Europe seems to be coming to the realization that Putin could very well order a nuclear strike.

I think the time has come were the Ukrainians need active support. NATO is defensive, but we at at the point were an attack posture is required.

If this thing is not shut down by the western powers acting swiftly at this time, I feel a terrible disaster will occur. The longer Putin is cornered the more unstable he will become. We need to shut this down now. I just hope doddering Joe, is up to it, but fear he is not.

On positive note, reports are emerging of highly successful ambushes on that 17 mile invasion force outside Kyiv. Apparently progress has been stalled for now.

 

[mtrycrafts]

....

On positive note, reports are emerging of highly successful ambushes on that 17 mile invasion force outside Kyiv. Apparently progress has been stalled for now.

And if that promised German anti-tank and aircraft munition arrives in time, perhaps the convoy can be permanently stalled and maybe eliminated.
Time will tell.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I like killing them to dampen that enthusiasm. 100% guaranteed to dampen the sh!t out of that enthusiasm. Oh, and guess where I'm going after I get done killing you since you came to kill my family and take my country ...



Then you're probably not on board with killing their entire families back home in Russia just for spite when it's over.

Why so reticent? Just tell us how you really feel.

 

[Alex2507]

Why so reticent? Just tell us how you really feel.

Nuke Moscow.

 

[highfigh]

Putinhead would have them assassinated.

OK, maybe I should have written 'covert group of members of the military'.

 

[highfigh]

Needs to be a very large number with their leaders to stand up to the diehards supporting Putler.

All that would be needed is one sniper and for Putin to go outside for a walk.

 

[highfigh]

Indeed. Don't know if he's seriously ill but that doesn't make me feel better about his mental condition. Normally he'd be getting little sleep during this time and that alone could be mentally debilitating.
The reports of disagreements with his top military staff on the setbacks are additionally ominous news. But that's the nature of dictatorships. After so long in power, they end up being surrounded by yes men who provide little value beyond his own opinion.

Another thing vexing him is there has not been this large of a war of this size in many years. As some would say, the "turkey shoots" of the Gulf Wars presented mismatched forces. This is more of a Peer to Peer war, i.e. similar weapons technology being used against each other. The numerical superiority of the Russians is being offset by the ferocious defense by the Ukrainians.

In an older post, I had mentioned the possibility that he may be ill and doing this because he no longer cares about how badly it might go or maybe, he wants to go out in a blaze of glory. Other than to cement his name in history, I can only think of a few reasons for this- some kind of psychological problem, drug/alcohol abuse or the previously mentioned illness making him not care.

How is this 'peer to peer', WRT weaponry? Have you seen this?

Ukraine, rights groups say Russia used cluster & vacuum bombs

Human rights groups and Ukraine's ambassador to the United States on Monday accused Russia of attacking Ukrainians with cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, weapons that have been condemned by a variety of international organizations.

www.reuters.com

 

[haraldo]

EU Parliament today accepts Ukraine application for EU membership

Ukraine NOW [English]

⚡️Main messages from the speech of the President of Ukraine in front of the European Parliament Nobody will enter our freedom. Each square will be an area of freedom. Nobody will break us. We want our children to live. It seems to me to be fair, 16 children died yesterday. Once again...

t.me

 

[SithZedi]

In an older post, I had mentioned the possibility that he may be ill and doing this because he no longer cares about how badly it might go or maybe, he wants to go out in a blaze of glory. Other than to cement his name in history, I can only think of a few reasons for this- some kind of psychological problem, drug/alcohol abuse or the previously mentioned illness making him not care.

How is this 'peer to peer, WRT weaponry? Have you seen this?

Ukraine, rights groups say Russia used cluster & vacuum bombs

Human rights groups and Ukraine's ambassador to the United States on Monday accused Russia of attacking Ukrainians with cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, weapons that have been condemned by a variety of international organizations.

www.reuters.com

Was commenting along the lines of generational technology, as in Anti Tank weapons, drones, antiaircraft missiles, etc. Unlike the Allies vs Iraq in the Gulf wars, where there was a significant difference in generational tech. Also, most importantly, the morale of the Ukrainian soldier and citizen is at a much higher level.

As for heavier weapons like clusters, etc. Russians are deploying these now because Putin's original plan has failed. They went with a "light" initial force designed for a decapitation move. He thought and was convinced this was going to be easier than expected. It was not typical Russian use of heavy thrust and air from the beginning.

 

[highfigh]

Was commenting along the lines of generational technology, as in Anti Tank weapons, drones, antiaircraft missiles, etc. Unlike the Allies vs Iraq in the Gulf wars, where there was a significant difference in generational tech. Also, most importantly, the morale of the Ukrainian soldier and citizen is at a much higher level.

As for heavier weapons like clusters, etc. Russians are deploying these now because Putin's original plan has failed. They went with a "light" initial force designed for a decapitation move. He thought and was convinced this was going to be easier than expected. It was not typical Russian use of heavy thrust and air from the beginning.

WRT Gulf War I, I can only imagine them shouting "WTF was that?????????????" when some of the aircraft flew over. They just fired indiscriminately when the F-117s flew over the first night because their Radar was dead and they wouldn't have been able to see much of a profile, anyway.

The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives- that's far more motivating than someone fighting because they were ordered to.

As little as I like Greg Gutfield, he had some personal insights last night because his mother in law is in Ukraine and as he said, the fighting is between people who may be friends or family members because, until fairly recently, they were all 'Russian'.

 

[SithZedi]

This is a good article on Z if you have the time.......

The Improbable Rise and Endless Heroism of Volodymyr Zelensky

How the comedian turned Ukrainian president gained control of something no army can wrest away: the narrative.

www.gq.com

 

[jhaider]

I'm curious how could we ever hope to rehabilitate Iran? They from what I understand absolutely hate us. Why would they ever respond to us? No matter how good our intentions?

Why not? Sure, there are regime and military elements profiting handsomely from sanctions (because they run the smuggling rings), but overall far more people in power there want to be reintegrated into the global economy than not. Yes, there is a dark history of American duplicity towards Iran going at least back to the 1950s when we killed democracy there and started propping up a repressive thug (for a well-researched book on that’s and an engaging read, pick up Stephen Kinzer’s “All the Shah’s Men”). But with the right approach I think skillful diplomats could make real progress. Progress was made under JPCOA, until the orange ogre ripped it up.

Admittedly, it will likely end up being an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Khamenei seems to be have made a long speech regarding Russia’s attack this morning without even mentioning Russian aggression. An unforced error.

I find certain thinking on Iran most fascinating. The same people who look with favor to drive Christianity and Judaism out of society, especially government, speak well of a Religious State run by Mullahs who jail or kill internal dissent.

Speak well of? Well, they have great food! An But it’s more like adding oil supply to devalue Russia’s big moneymaker and as a side benefit making amends for some historical wrongs. Good ol realpolitik win-win.

That the Iranian government are one of the largest exporters of terrorist weaponry, organisational skills, and finance doesn't register?

One man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter, etc. I don’t write that to minimize. Iran has acted at times abominably on the world stage, most recently in their efforts to help an Alawite dictator subdue and repress a Muslim population. But would they really be our worst frenemy? One could argue they’d only be our third worst in their region, after the krew butchering Yemen like it was a Washington Post columnist at their embassy, and the apartheid state. So it’sa balance of utility vs distaste. But speaking of taste, Iran’s caviar is better than Russia’s. Iran actually manages their Caspian fisheries.

That they are on very friendly relationship terms with Putin and Xi doesn't count?

You can’t do everything you can to punish someone, and then hold it against them that they end up associating with people you don’t like.

…both Raisi and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, supported improving bilateral ties during a three-hour meeting on Wednesday in which they also discussed regional and international issues.

I wonder what they talked about?

My educated guesses are Syria, and Russian money and weapons systems in exchange for Iranian oil production expertise. Meanwhile, lower level staffers were probably discussing smuggling. I don’t see how Ukraine would be relevant to dialogue between those two particular countries. Especially before Russia attacked. Iran isn’t currently on the UNSC so they wouldn’t even get a vote.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives- that's far more motivating than someone fighting because they were ordered to.

I agree. This reminds me of the old saw: "Why does the rabbit run faster than the fox? Because the rabbit is running for his life while the fox is only running for his dinner." (I've seen this attributed to Richard Dawkins, but I suspect he was not the first to say it). The saying is not directly on point, of course, because the Ukrainians are fighting, not running. Nevertheless, there's no doubt there is a difference in motivation in Ukraine right now.

 

[highfigh]

I agree. This reminds me of the old saw: "Why does the rabbit run faster than the fox? Because the rabbit is running for his life while the fox is only running for his dinner." (I've seen this attributed to Richard Dawkins, but I suspect he was not the first to say it). The saying is not directly on point, of course, because the Ukrainians are fighting, not running. Nevertheless, there's no doubt there is a difference in motivation in Ukraine right now.

I saw a video with a guy who was putting his wife, kids and grandkids in a vehicle so they could go to Poland, to safety. He planned to go back to fight. That's an insane situation- nobody should have to do this.

 

[SithZedi]

Why not? Sure, there are regime and military elements profiting handsomely from sanctions (because they run the smuggling rings), but overall far more people in power there want to be reintegrated into the global economy than not. Yes, there is a dark history of American duplicity towards Iran going at least back to the 1950s when we killed democracy there and started propping up a repressive thug (for a well-researched book on that’s and an engaging read, pick up Stephen Kinzer’s “All the Shah’s Men”). But with the right approach I think skillful diplomats could make real progress. Progress was made under JPCOA, until the orange ogre ripped it up.

Admittedly, it will likely end up being an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Khamenei seems to be have made a long speech regarding Russia’s attack this morning without even mentioning Russian aggression. An unforced error.



Speak well of? Well, they have great food! An But it’s more like adding oil supply to devalue Russia’s big moneymaker and as a side benefit making amends for some historical wrongs. Good ol realpolitik win-win.



One man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter, etc. I don’t write that to minimize. Iran has acted at times abominably on the world stage, most recently in their efforts to help an Alawite dictator subdue and repress a Muslim population. But would they really be our worst frenemy? One could argue they’d only be our third worst in their region, after the krew butchering Yemen like it was a Washington Post columnist at their embassy, and the apartheid state. So it’sa balance of utility vs distaste. But speaking of taste, Iran’s caviar is better than Russia’s. Iran actually manages their Caspian fisheries.



You can’t do everything you can to punish someone, and then hold it against them that they end up associating with people you don’t like.



My educated guesses are Syria, and Russian money and weapons systems in exchange for Iranian oil production expertise. Meanwhile, lower level staffers were probably discussing smuggling. I don’t see how Ukraine would be relevant to dialogue between those two particular countries. Especially before Russia attacked. Iran isn’t currently on the UNSC so they wouldn’t even get a vote.

Agree wholeheartedly on the the food, would add the people, music, Zoroastrianism (find it fascinating as a possible precursor to Judaism), and women..maybe more the latter. Which is one of the many reasons to remove the leadership.
The way the mullahs treat women, minority groups, throw homosexuals off of buildings, et al, encourages the idea that they should be gone asap and not aided in any way. I guess we'll disagree on the JPCOA. It was toothless to me in the long run. Deeply religious people who believe in a paradise should never be even close to having nuclear weapons.(yes, i know, a Christian country used the first bomb).
Agree would rather have a more secular type dictator in charge of a religious population. That's why, with hindsight, we learned that maybe Saddam was not so bad after all.
On the recent meetings with Russia, not having a copy of the agenda, we can only guess. I think we can agree that the fact that Russia, China and Iran are on the same page about things is not a good, possibly catastrophic, result of European and US foreign policy efforts.
BTW, I did enjoy Kinzer's book. Again, highlights failed Western policy and interference without broad historical perspective.

 

[highfigh]

Agree would rather have a more secular type dictator in charge of a religious population. That's why, with hindsight, we learned that maybe Saddam was not so bad after all.

How was Saddam Hussein "not so bad after all"? He was Sunni, which means he and the others believe their leaders are born to that position, so there's no chance of one being elected. Also, how did he treat people? Pretty effing badly, I'd say.

The Heinous Crimes of Saddam Hussein

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein gained notoriety for murdering thousands of his own people. Read about some of his most heinous crimes.

www.thoughtco.com