inflation

[Dude#1279435]

First, before I blame Biden, I'd like to know what the international inflation rate vs US is? Second, it really isn't gonna matter much for Biden because the inflation is 7% LOL. There's also things like CPI and PPI which I don't really understand. I'd thought spending and Biden's "green" energy push were factors. Here's a chart on the US inflation rate over the years. WTF was happening in the 70s? So high. As someone said, We didn't have the best economy, but we had the best music.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-inflation-rate/

 

[Hetfield]

Inflation and supply chain issues are happening literally around the entire world, the entire world. These issues didn't start or begin last January. The supply chain has been hanging on by a thread well before Covid, Covid was just the breaking point. I don't expect voters to dig into issue like they used to so we have what we have.
By the way China is a total disaster in having supply chain issues.

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[Trell]

First, before I blame Biden, I'd like to know what the international inflation rate vs US is? Second, it really isn't gonna matter much for Biden because the inflation is 7% LOL. There's also things like CPI and PPI which I don't really understand. I'd thought spending and Biden's "green" energy push were factors. Here's a chart on the US inflation rate over the years. WTF was happening in the 70s? So high. As someone said, We didn't have the best economy, but we had the best music.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-inflation-rate/

CPI is a consumer price index and there are several of them to make them representative of various groups like in cities vs rural areas, or measuring core inflation that excludes/reducerad volatile items like energy. The central banks around the world is mostly concerned about core inflation and not headline inflation (very simplified, but you get the idea). Serious economists are much more afraid of deflation than inflation, for very good reasons.

So those wanting to return to having money supply connected to a gold standard of old are the economic version of an anti-vaxxer. Same for crypto valuta like Bitcoin.

PPI [edit: my bad, I was thinking of PPP] is an index comparing purchasing power between countries. Has some real problems, obviously, but still has some use.

 

[SithZedi]

Some argue that Stagflation probably describes more of where we are heading now. It's the situation where you have rising prices, high unemployment, and slow GDP growth. Even though the below article is from July, it's informative as it goes back to the 1970s for some more perspective.

Conditions are ripe for repeat of 1970s stagflation and 2008 debt crisis | Nouriel Roubini

Warning signs are there for global economy, and central banks will be left in impossible position

www.theguardian.com

The real difficulty looking at some of the pricing indexes over the years is the fact that the government has changed the way they compile the rates. You're not comparing apples to apples if you look at CPI in 1982 and now. You'll find lots of colorful disagreement amoung economists on that. As I am sure we will on this thread as it grows : )

 

[Trell]

The real difficulty looking at some of the pricing indexes over the years is the fact that the government has changed the way they compile the rates. You're not comparing apples to apples if you look at CPI in 1982 and now. You'll find lots of colorful disagreement amoung economists on that. As I am sure we will on this thread as it grows : )

There is nothing hidden in the various indices as they are all public, contrary to the claims of the economic anti-vaxxers that don’t understand it in the first place. There is no conspiracy, whatsoever.

You claimed in an earlier post to have supervised PhD students, in what field?[edit: sorry, I think that must have been @Am_P ]

 

[MaxInValrico]

First, before I blame Biden, I'd like to know what the international inflation rate vs US is? Second, it really isn't gonna matter much for Biden because the inflation is 7% LOL. There's also things like CPI and PPI which I don't really understand. I'd thought spending and Biden's "green" energy push were factors. Here's a chart on the US inflation rate over the years. WTF was happening in the 70s? So high. As someone said, We didn't have the best economy, but we had the best music.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-inflation-rate/

CPI = Consumer Price Index
PPI = Producer Price Index
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

President's can no more control inflation than they can the weather. Inflation is driven by consumers and investor demands in today's economy. In the 1970's it was driven greatly by price controls instituted by Pres. Nixon during Vietnam. Once those controls were released, inflation took off. Pres. Carter hired Paul Volker as the head of the Fed who then raised interest rates so high that it killed demand to force inflation down which took place once Pres. Reagan went into office which in turn created a recession in the mid 80s.

 

[MaxInValrico]

Inflation and supply chain issues are happening literally around the entire world, the entire world. These issues didn't start or begin last January. The supply chain has been hanging on by a thread well before Covid, Covid was just the breaking point. I don't expect voters to dig into issue like they used to so we have what we have.
By the way China is a total disaster in having supply chain issues.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

The Just In Time supply chain practice although efficient was an accident waiting to happen with respect to production.

 

[Trell]

CPI = Consumer Price Index
PPI = Producer Price Index
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

President's can no more control inflation than they can the weather. Inflation is driven by consumers and investor demands in today's economy. In the 1970's it was driven greatly by price controls instituted by Pres. Nixon during Vietnam. Once those controls were released, inflation took off. Pres. Carter hired Paul Volker as the head of the Fed who then raised interest rates so high that it killed demand to force inflation down which took place once Pres. Reagan went into office which in turn created a recession in the mid 80s.

Thanks for pointing out my mistake with PPI definition. Corrected my post to reflect PPP that what I thought of.

 

[Trell]

The Just In Time supply chain practice although efficient was an accident waiting to happen with respect to production.

Indeed, in Europe many major manufacturers had a large part of their inventory on trailers driving around. The pandemic showed the dangers with that.

 

[Am_P]

First, before I blame Biden, I'd like to know what the international inflation rate vs US is? Second, it really isn't gonna matter much for Biden because the inflation is 7% LOL. There's also things like CPI and PPI which I don't really understand. I'd thought spending and Biden's "green" energy push were factors. Here's a chart on the US inflation rate over the years. WTF was happening in the 70s? So high. As someone said, We didn't have the best economy, but we had the best music.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-inflation-rate/

We've been printing money out the wazoo since covid started in early 2020. It started under Don Drumpf and is carried on through by Biden. I don't blame the Drumpf administration or the Biden administration on this reactionary measure. If you are some kind of master economist who would have had an alternate solution, i'm all ears.

 

[Swerd]

@Dude#1279435 and anyone else too. If you want to learn all the jargon about inflation and recession, as well as employment and money supply, go take Economics 101 and 102, macro and micro economics. You still won't really understand things, but you'll at least be able to nod your head intelligently at all the recent talk in the news.

As @MaxInValrico said, if you want to actually be able to predict something, stay away from economics and go into weather forecasting .

 

[Hetfield]

The Just In Time supply chain practice although efficient was an accident waiting to happen with respect to production.

Unfortunately yes, and it's something most of us had no idea about until it blew up in our faces. It's gonna be years unfortunately until it's fixed. It's basically changing the industry around into something it's not now.

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[Hetfield]

Some argue that Stagflation probably describes more of where we are heading now. It's the situation where you have rising prices, high unemployment, and slow GDP growth. Even though the below article is from July, it's informative as it goes back to the 1970s for some more perspective.

Conditions are ripe for repeat of 1970s stagflation and 2008 debt crisis | Nouriel Roubini

Warning signs are there for global economy, and central banks will be left in impossible position

www.theguardian.com

The real difficulty looking at some of the pricing indexes over the years is the fact that the government has changed the way they compile the rates. You're not comparing apples to apples if you look at CPI in 1982 and now. You'll find lots of colorful disagreement amoung economists on that. As I am sure we will on this thread as it grows : )

But unemployment is extremely low thank goodness. I don't think we are headed for anything that dark. We are basically gonna have to weather the storm until the supply chain is fixed but it ain't gonna be overnight.

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[SithZedi]

But unemployment is extremely low thank goodness. I don't think we are headed for anything that dark. We are basically gonna have to weather the storm until the supply chain is fixed but it ain't gonna be overnight.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

I hope its not that dark either but i do fear the low unemployment rate is deceiving.
The rate is the ratio of the number of people counted as unemployed to the number considered to be in the labor force(everyone who has a job or "wants" one). The key thing to remember is that people who stopped looking for work are no longer counted as part of the labor force.
These people stopped looking for many reasons, fear of Covid is only one of them. That number is large and when they do start to look again the rate will go up.

 

[Hetfield]

I hope its not that dark either but i do fear the low unemployment rate is deceiving.
The rate is the ratio of the number of people counted as unemployed to the number considered to be in the labor force(everyone who has a job or "wants" one). The key thing to remember is that people who stopped looking for work are no longer counted as part of the labor force.
These people stopped looking for many reasons, fear of Covid is only one of them. That number is large and when they do start to look again the rate will go up.

If people have stopped looking for work in this economy, in this job market its not because they can't find a job, it's because they don't want one. I'm seeing truck driver jobs, my area, that are paying well over 100 grand. There are jobs open all over the place, workers for once are in the driver's seat. It's a beautiful day in my opinion to be a worker bee.

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[lovinthehd]

Why on earth wouldn't it be drumphy's mess primarily with his poor handling of the 'rona?

 

[panteragstk]

Why on earth wouldn't it be drumphy's mess primarily with his poor handling of the 'rona?

It's just part of the picture. Sure, his handling of things made a mess here when it comes to workers and who could and couldn't work when things were "shut down".

That is the US part of the picture, many, many other countries shut down production, or companies did because of demand, safety, etc.

Wood is a great example. They slowed production due to lack of demand, but then demand went nuts and wood couldn't keep up. They were playing catch up and probably still are. That's one of many industries. Chip makers can't make chips quick enough, and the demand for those is only going up.

We all didn't realize how good our supply chain actually was, but now we know since it's having trouble keeping up.

Plus a lot of workers are literally no longer alive, so there is a smaller work force to produce everything. Then you have the fact that those same workers who were out of work during the shut down found new jobs that made it possible for them to not return to their production level job.

The entire things is massively convoluted, which is why when one tiny thing happens, the cascade is difficult to stop.

It also doesn't help that companies see the word inflation and realize they can just raise their prices and say "but inflation"...

 

[SithZedi]

There is nothing hidden in the various indices as they are all public, contrary to the claims of the economic anti-vaxxers that don’t understand it in the first place. There is no conspiracy, whatsoever.

You claimed in an earlier post to have supervised PhD students, in what field?[edit: sorry, I think that must have been @Am_P ]

I don't think I used the term hidden. I agree it's not a conspiracy but they have changed the way the compile the numbers. In fact, there was one this month.

January 2022 CPI weight update

Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index are calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures.

www.bls.gov

These are a few other times it has happened since 1918.

Chronology of changes in the Consumer Price Index

www.bls.gov

Economic anti-vaxxers? I had not heard that one before. I'll have to remember to use it sometime.

 

[SithZedi]

CPI = Consumer Price Index
PPI = Producer Price Index
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

President's can no more control inflation than they can the weather. Inflation is driven by consumers and investor demands in today's economy. In the 1970's it was driven greatly by price controls instituted by Pres. Nixon during Vietnam. Once those controls were released, inflation took off. Pres. Carter hired Paul Volker as the head of the Fed who then raised interest rates so high that it killed demand to force inflation down which took place once Pres. Reagan went into office which in turn created a recession in the mid 80s.

 

[lovinthehd]

It's just part of the picture. Sure, his handling of things made a mess here when it comes to workers and who could and couldn't work when things were "shut down".

That is the US part of the picture, many, many other countries shut down production, or companies did because of demand, safety, etc.

Wood is a great example. They slowed production due to lack of demand, but then demand went nuts and wood couldn't keep up. They were playing catch up and probably still are. That's one of many industries. Chip makers can't make chips quick enough, and the demand for those is only going up.

We all didn't realize how good our supply chain actually was, but now we know since it's having trouble keeping up.

Plus a lot of workers are literally no longer alive, so there is a smaller work force to produce everything. Then you have the fact that those same workers who were out of work during the shut down found new jobs that made it possible for them to not return to their production level job.

The entire things is massively convoluted, which is why when one tiny thing happens, the cascade is difficult to stop.

It also doesn't help that companies see the word inflation and realize they can just raise their prices and say "but inflation"...

I was being somewhat facetious.....the president basically surfs what he's got to deal with. Drumphy did make poor decisions, but he's done that his whole life.

I was all too familiar with JIT manufacturing....many times I've had to expedite shipments to keep a factory from shutting down due lack of a critical component....long before 'rona