Coronavirus

[Mr._Clark]

Identical twin sisters (47) contracted COVID-19 in early November. One had mild symptoms and survived, the other died. This disease is unpredictable.

Twin sisters and front-line workers contract Covid, only one survives

One sister vowed to take the vaccine in honor of her twin, who wished she could've taken it.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[highfigh]

In a democratic society, there is no place for compulsory vaccination. We should have liberty to decide what is better for us without any pressure. We aren't cattle, we are human beings!

There is, if people vote on it. By consenting, they have voted.

So, we should make uninformed choices?

Look at how well that usually works out. We have laws because people can't live together without killing each other and doing other stupid things. That makes us superior to 'dumb animals'? They're only dumb because they can't speak to us in a way we understand.

 

[highfigh]

Viruses mutate naturally. That is a big part of why an HIV vaccine has never been made, it mutates very rapidly compared to other viruses.

But, doesn't the organism need some kind of stimulus to cause the mutation?

 

[highfigh]

Identical twin sisters (47) contracted COVID-19 in early November. One had mild symptoms and survived, the other died. This disease is unpredictable.

Twin sisters and front-line workers contract Covid, only one survives

One sister vowed to take the vaccine in honor of her twin, who wished she could've taken it.

www.nbcnews.com

Genetically 'identical', but what about their lifestyle? Is it possible that one had some issue that would cause her death because of nutrition, etc? Without that, it leaves a difference in the virus as the cause, right (if they're absolutely identical)?

 

[NINaudio]

But, doesn't the organism need some kind of stimulus to cause the mutation?

Not necessarily. It all depends on what kind of mechanisms it has in place to prevent errors from being made when it's replicating itself. Less error prevention mechanisms in place mean more mutations. Selective pressures can help speed up this process, but by are no means a necessity.

 

[panteragstk]

Viruses mutate naturally. That is a big part of why an HIV vaccine has never been made, it mutates very rapidly compared to other viruses.

Also why they can't just "cure the common cold". Too many thing cause a cold for that to be possible. At least, that's what I've read.

 

[NINaudio]

Also why they can't just "cure the common cold". Too many thing cause a cold for that to be possible. At least, that's what I've read.

Correct, there are dozens of different viruses spread throughout several families that cause what we refer to as "the common cold".

 

[TLS Guy]

Do you mean 3 or 4x faster than the original strain?

The R factor is the number one infected person infects. Currently the highest number reported to the previous strains are around 2. So an R above one means there is exponential community spread. A number below 1 means the epidemic is on a downward trend. The best mitigation efforts have lowered R to about 0.8 to 0.9. Spread becomes very significant with R values above 1.2. so R values above 2 are truly catastrophic.

 

[TLS Guy]

Is this some kind of mutation that comes with naturally-created viruses, or could it be synthesized? Not trying to start any wacko theories, just trying to learn about something I don't know. I know organisms mutate, but sometimes it comes after a partial course of treatment that doesn't kill it. This seems very soon, considering the fact that almost nobody has been inoculated.

All viruses mutate. All I would say that to question the origin of the original outbreak is a legitimate question. The problem is we will never likely know the answer, especially given the origin was China.

I'm busy at the moment, but I will do a longer post later. The situation is serious. Boris Johnson has spoken to the nation. I have not had time to review the speech. However a new emergency Tier 4 level of restriction has been just introduced, with draconian stay at home orders for London and the South East. These at first glance sound similar to the Wuhan restrictions of January. The planned Christmas easing has been cancelled for that region. Public unrest is widespread.

I will try and do a longer post later today, on my thoughts. For now I would just say this. This mutation was discovered in Kent, but I highly doubt it originated there. My suspicion is that it is already in many parts of the globe, if not now, it soon will be. I understand Kent very well, and its unique international connections.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Genetically 'identical', but what about their lifestyle? Is it possible that one had some issue that would cause her death because of nutrition, etc? Without that, it leaves a difference in the virus as the cause, right (if they're absolutely identical)?

I really do not know.

I would guess lifestyle or some other issue not mentioned in the news reports might explain it.

The news reports mention that the sister who died had pneumonia. This makes me wonder if she contracted another virus or bacteria:

Recognition and management of respiratory co-infection and secondary bacterial pneumonia in patients with COVID-19

In COVID-19, respiratory infection with SARS-CoV-2 plus another virus (viral co-infection) or with SARS-CoV-2 plus a bacterial pathogen (combined viral and bacterial pneumonia) has been described. Secondary bacterial pneumonia can follow the initial phase of viral respiratory infection or occur...

www.ccjm.org

I've seen a few reports suggesting that the number of virus particles in the initial exposure might make a difference in the outcome:

>>>A third reason may relate to the number of infectious viral particles to which people are exposed at the point of infection (the “inoculum”). Although human challenge trials for SARS-CoV-2 are in early stages of development, studies of influenza A virus in humans have shown that initial exposure to a lower inoculum results in fewer and shorter symptoms as well as lower likelihood of viral shedding.89 This parallels animal experiments for influenza and for other viral diseases,10 and more recently for SARS-CoV-2 in Syrian hamsters11 and ferrets,12 in which inoculum size correlated with severity of ensuing disease. Viral load in patients with covid-19 has been shown to be greater in those with more severe illness.<<<

Lightening the viral load to lessen covid-19 severity

Adherence to separation measures is key Although the number of positive tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across many European countries has risen sharply in recent weeks, increases in the number of hospital admissions and deaths from covid-19 have not been...

www.bmj.com

Even "identical" twins do not necessarily have identical dna:

Identical Twins' Genes Are Not Identical

Twins may appear to be cut from the same cloth, but their genes reveal a different pattern

www.scientificamerican.com

Off hand, it seems unlikely that these twins happened to have a genetic difference that changed the outcome, but who knows?

 

[Swerd]

The variant - called ‘VUI – 202012/01’ - carries a set of mutations including an N501Y mutation to part of the genetic sequence which forms the spike protein - little grippy rods which attach to human cells. Any change in shape of the spike protein could make it more difficult for the immune system to spot. The virus uses the spike protein to bind to the human ACE2 receptor.

The N501Y mutation in the spike protein changes a single amino acid, from asparagine to tyrosine. It can possibly change the shape of the spike protein, but it also might not. Right now all we know is that it seems allow the spike protein to better bind to the cell's ACE2 receptor, and to make the virus more infectious. How the immune system might react to this mutation, and whether it helps SARS-CoV-2 evade T-cells and antibodies raised as a result of vaccination, is unknown.

The vaccines, all or most of them, were made against the entire spike protein, not various fragments of it. When the immune system gets hold of it, the antigen-presenting cells digest it into a large number of peptide fragments varying in length, typically 8 to 17 amino acids long. These peptides are then offered to the B- and T-cell precursor cells as potential targets of the immune system, called epitopes. Some of these peptides are said to be linear epitopes whose sequence is important, and others are conformational epitopes, whose 3-dimensional shape is important.

In contrast to the vaccines, the monoclonal antibody cocktails made by Ely Lilly and Regeneron, are an assortment (a dozen?) of monoclonal antibodies directed against several selected epitopes of the spike protein. I think the N501Y mutation is more likely to alter the therapeutic properties of these antibodies, for better or worse, than it would make the vaccines less effective. But that's only my opinion. Labs in the UK and the USA are probably busy now looking to answer these questions.

Epitope - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Swerd]

But, doesn't the organism need some kind of stimulus to cause the mutation?

No, mutations happen all the time. The stimulus you're thinking of is a selection brought on by environmental changes. If bacteria were switched from a growth medium containing glucose to one containing lactose, those bacteria that cannot metabolize lactose would be at a selective disadvantage, and those that can switch between glucose and lactose would be at a selective advantage.

All organisms from bacteria to mammals generate mutations each time DNA is replicated as a cell divides. On average, most bacteria generate one mutation for every million cell divisions. Mammalian cells mutate about once every billion cell divisions. That one thousand times less frequent. The difference is due to better error correction mechanisms during DNA replication.

Viruses, not technically a living organism, do have nucleic acid genomes (DNA or RNA) which replicate. Their mutation rates are higher than that of bacteria, but it is known to vary widely among different viruses. This is due to their lack of sophisticated error correction mechanisms.

Viruses replicate and bacteria divide much more rapidly than mammalian cells. As a result, mutations appear much faster in them than you would expect just from their error rate during DNA or RNA replication.

 

[Trell]

No, mutations happen all the time ...

All organisms from bacteria to mammals generate mutations each time DNA is replicated as a cell divides. ...

The Trump Trust Gene (tm) is an evolutionary miracle.

 

[TLS Guy]

No, mutations happen all the time. The stimulus you're thinking of is a selection brought on by environmental changes. If bacteria were switched from a growth medium containing glucose to one containing lactose, those bacteria that cannot metabolize lactose would be at a selective disadvantage, and those that can switch between glucose and lactose would be at a selective advantage.

All organisms from bacteria to mammals generate mutations each time DNA is replicated as a cell divides. On average, most bacteria generate one mutation for every million cell divisions. Mammalian cells mutate about once every billion cell divisions. That one thousand times less frequent. The difference is due to better error correction mechanisms during DNA replication.

Viruses, not technically a living organism, do have nucleic acid genomes (DNA or RNA) which replicate. Their mutation rates are higher than that of bacteria, but it is known to vary widely among different viruses. This is due to their lack of sophisticated error correction mechanisms.

Viruses replicate and bacteria divide much more rapidly than mammalian cells. As a result, mutations appear much faster in them than you would expect just from their error rate during DNA or RNA replication.

This is a fast moving story. I have just watched the BBC news. This is clearly very serious. It seems it is in Wales and accounts for their difficulty to control the virus in recent days, and why the results of their recent lockdown were so short lived.

According to a professor of virology and public health from Liverpool who was interviewed, this mutation is significant enough that not all PCR tests are detecting this virus. Some are, and some are not. If this is confirmed, this will be a very serious set back. He did not have confidence that the vaccines would necessarily be effective, or as effective, against this strain. He intimated that these vaccines may have to be edited. That would be a very bad blow indeed.

If that is required there will have to be procedural change to allow edits and roll out without trial. That is just a fact, the economies and populations can not tolerate this continuing much longer. We have to get ahead of it before even worse genetic drift takes place. This situation demands a whole new level of urgency.

The whole of Scotland has gone to Tier 4, where Nicola Sturgeon regards this as very serious. The Sottish Border between England and Scotland is now closed except for essential goods. Wales has moved its post Christmas Lockdown to midnight tonight.

All travel in and out of London and the home counties has been banned. I expect the whole country to go under extreme measures as more facts and data come to light.

This is a quick update, I will post at length later today or tomorrow.

Right now my advice to you all is to assume this new stain is here in the US already, and up your precautions. My recommendation is you all follow UK advice.

I would bet for sure this is the reason for the dire situation in California for instance. I think samples should be sent from the US to Porton Down immediately. I think thy have this new genome fully decoded. However they are a top secret military installation in the middle of a remote area guarded 24/7 by a ring of steel. They keep their cards, close to the chest so to speak.

 

[TLS Guy]

According to latest UK information, preliminary estimates are that this new mutant strain is 75% more infectious than previous ones. This is the best guesstimate currently. Obviously there is a rush to find out more data on this, but it is a unfortunate occurrence.

Another concern is the widespread infection in mink farms. These are now common around the world. Infected farms have been found in Utah and a case was found in a wild mink in Utah four days ago. This could become a big issue and make Covid-19 an ongoing endemic infection. The consequences of this are a big unknown currently, but of concern obviously.

However to return to the new and more highly infectious version of the virus in the UK.

The area around the River Medway first showed a highly unusual and rapid spike of infections starting at the end of October. At first it was thought the population was non compliant. However that was found not to be the case.

The river Medway divides the county of Kent into East and West. Let is take a look at the map of Kent.

On the North of Kent, take note of the Isle of Sheppey. This is where the spike of cases first spiked starting at the end of October. To the North of the island is the Thames estuary. To the West is the Medway estuary. On the Northwest tip of Sheppey is a huge container port, the port of Sheerness. The area around Rochester North of the purple line is Medway, which was carved off from Kent a few years ago and is now known as Medway.

Now the spike in cases soon spread to Medway, and both Medway and Swale lead in infections. The body of water that goes around the South of the island is the Swale. The borough of Swale comprise the island and the area to the immediate South of the Swale.

Now cases in Dover where 17% of goods are shipped in and out of the UK, mainly in trucks had a low incidence, and so did Folkstone which is the entry to the channels tunnel.

At the time cases were rapidly rising in Swale and then Medway, cases in Rother and Rye were among the lowest in the country.

Initially the outbreak in Swale was blamed on the two large prisons located on Sheppey. However inmates in prisons are under lockdown! So the infection gets into prisons from community spread.

It is my contention that this new version of the virus most likely entered the UK from the port of Sheerness. During six weeks the rates have stubbornly risen all across Kent despite Tier 3 restrictions for some weeks now. In the last couple of weeks cases have spread west and north at an alarming rate.

Somehow it spread to Wales which has also seen an alarming rise in cases despite a two week severe lock down, with cases going wild on slight easing.

I'm pretty sure the UK is looking at a harsh country wide lock down until the majority of the country is vaccinated.

All hospitals in Kent are now full, and non Covid-19 cases being sent to other parts of the country.

There are fears that unless these new harsh measures slow progression the whole country will exhaust its hospital capacity soon. In that case hospital care will end up being unavailable.

Meanwhile the imbecile Trump is making fun of Boris Johnson for the new measures taken today in Tweets. It is his same old garbage telling Boris that the cure can not be worse than the disease. I hope history judges Trump as one of histories most notorious mass murderers.

I am really concerned that this virus is already in the USA. We need to find out. However, at this time there is no federal leadership, only inappropriate detachment and harmful ignorant cruel Tweets. If this new Covid-19 is not here yet, and I bet it is, it will be soon. I am very worried medical care may become widely unavailable in a short period of time and our death toll will rapidly climb to over a million before vaccines can have a measurable effect. High community spread will delay the time for vaccines to be effective.

I have never been more concerned about the situation than I am now.

 

[TLS Guy]

I have just learned that the WHO think the new virus mutation in the UK is related to the outbreak in mink in Denmark. That is interesting as the port of Sheerness handles a large portion of Scandinavian cargo. So that might well be why this problem first arose on Sheppey. The Danes handled the mink problem badly. They culled millions of mink, buried them in shallow graves. Their bodies swelled, and they got thrown up out of the ground. This episode also led to groundwater contamination with the virus.

 

[highfigh]

I really do not know.

I would guess lifestyle or some other issue not mentioned in the news reports might explain it.

The news reports mention that the sister who died had pneumonia. This makes me wonder if she contracted another virus or bacteria:

Recognition and management of respiratory co-infection and secondary bacterial pneumonia in patients with COVID-19

In COVID-19, respiratory infection with SARS-CoV-2 plus another virus (viral co-infection) or with SARS-CoV-2 plus a bacterial pathogen (combined viral and bacterial pneumonia) has been described. Secondary bacterial pneumonia can follow the initial phase of viral respiratory infection or occur...

www.ccjm.org

I've seen a few reports suggesting that the number of virus particles in the initial exposure might make a difference in the outcome:

>>>A third reason may relate to the number of infectious viral particles to which people are exposed at the point of infection (the “inoculum”). Although human challenge trials for SARS-CoV-2 are in early stages of development, studies of influenza A virus in humans have shown that initial exposure to a lower inoculum results in fewer and shorter symptoms as well as lower likelihood of viral shedding.89 This parallels animal experiments for influenza and for other viral diseases,10 and more recently for SARS-CoV-2 in Syrian hamsters11 and ferrets,12 in which inoculum size correlated with severity of ensuing disease. Viral load in patients with covid-19 has been shown to be greater in those with more severe illness.<<<

I know two brothers whose father passed two weeks ago and the obituary mentioned that it was due to COVID- he had been healthy until he developed pneumonia. Their mother tested negative.

 

[TLS Guy]

So, a quick update. The fact that things were going adrift in Kent was actually noticed in September. However it has taken over two months to really understand what has been going on. What is also known now is that those that have this new strain have a much higher viral burden. This is also a factor in increased spread.

Because of this there is now intensive investigation going on to see if this infection may actually be more serious. There is so much background noise in the chaos, that this will be hard to discern. Also I can not find out how easy it to find out which individuals have which version of the virus. I doubt at this time it is easy to recognize.

Also attempts are under way to monitor the vaccine roll out and study vaccine failures. This is obviously urgent, as the vaccines may already need editing.

For this reasons I don't think anyone can be certain this crisis will be over mid next year.

Meanwhile this new mutant strain has been found in Denmark and Holland. That gives further credence to the mink link. One case has been reported in Australia. They have taken draconian measures in the region it was discovered.

Nations are reacting quickly in Europe to cut travel from the UK. There is talk of closing the Eurotunnel. It is closed to Belgium now. So far Belgium, Holland and Italy have banned travelers from the UK. Germany will likely ban travel soon. Israel has imposed a strict 14 day quarantine in designated hotels under supervision for UK arrivals.

The US is hampered by a lack of leadership currently. Urgent efforts ought to be underway in all regions of the US to look for this strain. Also we need to have robust surveillance for vaccine failures and see if they are related to this mutant strain. So far all I see are Dumb tweets from Dumpf. Every day is a day sooner to his exit. Tomorrow only 30 days before he is escorted out of the White House.

 

[highfigh]

The US is hampered by a lack of leadership currently. Urgent efforts ought to be underway in all regions of the US to look for this strain. Also we need to have robust surveillance for vaccine failures and see if they are related to this mutant strain. So far all I see are Dumb tweets from Dumpf. Every day is a day sooner to his exit. Tomorrow only 30 days before he is escorted out of the White House.

OTOH, telling many Americans what to do is very similar to herding cats. They might do something for a while, then decide they're bored and do something that's more interesting, to them. Trump is right there with them- before, it was "I want to be President" and now, "Ooo, a fuzzy puppy!".

 

[Out-Of-Phase]

#..... amongst many dudes.

What does Dude mean?