Coronavirus: When Would You Turn The Country Back On?

[highfigh]

Exposing the "deep state" and interviewing a guy with false claims to have invented e-mail

You saw my use of apostrophes around the word 'interesting', right?

...but he was involved with Fran Drescher! That must count for something.

He does have four degrees, including a PhD in Biological Engineering, but I would like to see the basis for some of his comments.

Regardless, I don't see that there has been an organized way of getting COVID-19 test kits to the places where they're needed, especially since the thinking is that tracing the path is now near the top of the list for things to do. It's damn hard to make sure people who lack symptoms aren't carriers of the disease and contagious.

 

[Trell]

You saw my use of apostrophes around the word 'interesting', right?

...but he was involved with Fran Drescher! That must count for something.

He does have four degrees, including a PhD in Biological Engineering, but I would like to see the basis for some of his comments.

Regardless, I don't see that there has been an organized way of getting COVID-19 test kits to the places where they're needed, especially since the thinking is that tracing the path is now near the top of the list for things to do. It's damn hard to make sure people who lack symptoms aren't carriers of the disease and contagious.

Why do you link to such derp and misinformation from the loony fringe? There is a lot of "real fake news" slithering around about the Corona virus and this is causing unnecessary deaths because proper precautions are not taken in a timely fashion. So you are actually part of the problem in this regard.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Simplifying greatly for purposed of discussion, my impression (I could be wrong, this is just an impression) is that there are basically 2 schools of thought on this.

1) A vaccine or other cure will not be available for at least 12-18 months and it will be close to impossible to avoid spread of the virus up to herd immunity levels (I'll pick 80% for purposes of discussion, you are free to pick your own). Under this view, the only real issue in terms of the death count is how many lives can be saved by flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming hospitals. This view seems to be coupled in most cases with a belief that restrictions should be minimized to reduce economic impact, restrained primarily by the potential to overwhelm the hospitals.

1a) I'll throw out another variation that is perhaps a more fatalistic version of 1 above. Some commentaries (I'm not referring to anything I've read here on AH) seem to assume, without actually saying it, that the number of people who die will be about the same no matter what we do. This of course leads to the conclusion that restrictions are basically ineffective and amount to nothing more than a mass delusional feel good exercise responsive to our need to feel like we have some level of control.

2) It is possible to flatten the curve enough to buy sufficient time to develop a vaccine or other treatment well before herd immunity is reached. This doesn't necessarily ignore the economic impact, but it leads to a much different cost vs benefit evaluation.

2a) A variation on 2 is that we can impliment widespread testing in a way that would allow easing of restrictions to a large extent while still preventing rapid spread of the virus enough to .

I'm sure the above does not accurately capture every view. I'm simplifying greatly for purposes of discussion. Please add whatever I've missed.

For what it's worth, based on what I know right now, I favor 2a. Perhaps I'm a naive twit, but I believe that if we unite and go full bore we can save lives and minimize the economic impact. I just can't accept the more fatalistic views.

This gives me an excuse to quote a favorite line from Terminator movies: "The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."

 

[Swerd]

Agreed. And I think that balance of economic and health criteria is what will make the decision so difficult. Conceding lives for the economy would be a tough argument to make. That's what will happen if we don't wait for 100% eradication of Corona. And I'm not sure anybody proposes waiting for that.

So if we don't want to wait for 100%, then WE AGREE there is a point where economic impact outweighs loss of life. Right?

I'm gonna let this lay before going any further, and see if anyone disagrees.

Your response is too full of linguistic booby traps to accept fully. Here's what I could accept:

Agreed. And I think that balance of economic and health criteria is what will make the decision so difficult. Conceding lives for the economy would be a tough argument to make. That's what will happen if we don't wait for 100% eradication of Corona. And I'm not sure anybody proposes waiting for that.

Plenty of people propose waiting that long. Don't suggest they don't exist or should not be considered.

So if we don't want to wait for 100%, then WE AGREE there is there might be a point where economic impact outweighs loss of life. Right?

Wrong. No such agreement exists. There is significant debate over when & how loss of life and economic impact might be balanced.

I'm gonna let this lay before going any further, and see if anyone disagrees.

I just did disagree. Declaring it agreed because no one responds is what I call a linguistic booby trap. Don't go there and you might be ignored less often.

 

[Danzilla31]

Simplifying greatly for purposed of discussion, my impression (I could be wrong, this is just an impression) is that there are basically 2 schools of thought on this.

1) A vaccine or other cure will not be available for at least 12-18 months and it will be close to impossible to avoid spread of the virus up to herd immunity levels (I'll pick 80% for purposes of discussion, you are free to pick your own). Under this view, the only real issue in terms of the death count is how many lives can be saved by flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming hospitals. This view seems to be coupled in most cases with a belief that restrictions should be minimized to reduce economic impact, restrained primarily by the potential to overwhelm the hospitals.

1a) I'll throw out another variation that is perhaps a more fatalistic version of 1 above. Some commentaries (I'm not referring to anything I've read here on AH) seem to assume, without actually saying it, that the number of people who die will be about the same no matter what we do. This of course leads to the conclusion that restrictions are basically ineffective and amount to nothing more than a mass delusional feel good exercise responsive to our need to feel like we have some level of control.

2) It is possible to flatten the curve enough to buy sufficient time to develop a vaccine or other treatment well before herd immunity is reached. This doesn't necessarily ignore the economic impact, but it leads to a much different cost vs benefit evaluation.

2a) A variation on 2 is that we can impliment widespread testing in a way that would allow easing of restrictions to a large extent while still preventing rapid spread of the virus enough to .

I'm sure the above does not accurately capture every view. I'm simplifying greatly for purposes of discussion. Please add whatever I've missed.

For what it's worth, based on what I know right now, I favor 2a. Perhaps I'm a naive twit, but I believe that if we unite and go full bore we can save lives and minimize the economic impact. I just can't accept the more fatalistic views.

This gives me an excuse to quote a favorite line from Terminator movies: "The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."

Yeah I like your take on it those are all really good points I like your hope and optimism as well

 

[Pogre]

I don't know, but I do think if everything opens back up too soon there's a high probability all of us will lose someone close within a couple of months.

My wife was having trouble grasping just how serious this really is until I pointed out that her parents, my parents, our grandchild... all high risk for it to be fatal should they be infected. I know we can't do this forever tho, and I have no clue which poison to take. I still have faith in the scientific and medical community and am confident we'll eventually get it under control.

I'm all for the world court going after China, hard. Not just for the wet markets either. A serious investigation of the origin, exactly when they first realized how bad this is, and how long it took for them to alert the rest of the world.

I've read and watched some very, very disturbing things about their general attitude and actions toward America and some of the other countries becoming infected. Some of it is pretty unbelievable, some not so much. I'm not sharing any of it tho because I can't confirm most of it but it's very upsetting.

 

[Danzilla31]

I don't know, but I do think if everything opens back up too soon there's a high probability all of us will lose someone close within a couple of months.

My wife was having trouble grasping just how serious this really is until I pointed out that her parents, my parents, our grandchild... all high risk for it to be fatal should they be infected. I know we can't do this forever tho, and I have no clue which poison to take. I still have faith in the scientific and medical community and am confident we'll eventually get it under control.

I'm all for the world court going after China, hard. Not just for the wet markets either. A serious investigation of the origin, exactly when they first realized how bad this is, and how long it took for them to alert the rest of the world.

I've read and watched some very, very disturbing things about their general attitude and actions toward America and some of the other countries becoming infected. Some of it is pretty unbelievable, some not so much. I'm not sharing any of it tho because I can't confirm most of it but it's very upsetting.

Yeah problem is how can you go after them?

After the dust settles there pretty much going to be the reigning super power I'm afraid

They have a monopoly on manufacturing which I'm only now realizing what an advantage that is to the country that has it

Us converting to what we are now over the years has all to much exposed some issues which definetly didn't help our response to this

I mean if your one of the biggest baddest kids on the sandlot what do the rest of the kids do if they object when that kid tells you to piss off?

I apologize if this deviates from the question or point of this thread and will retract it if it does.

It's just @Pogre has brought up something I've kind off thought about myself I'm just playing it through my head and trying to look at all the angles

 

[killbill13]

My country Greece closed everything very fast and you cant go out except for serious reasons. Or you got caught.
they didnt wait for everyone to become ill to act.
Countries that believed its a common flu and we will use horde firewall like Tramp or Boris Johnson, they were severly mistaken.
This 2 politicians must be judged in court for crimes against humanity.

 

[KEW]

My wife was having trouble grasping just how serious this really is until I pointed out that her parents, my parents, our grandchild... all high risk for it to be fatal should they be infected.

Another way I use to help people understand the importance of adhering to the social distancing is that while I may not be at much risk of dying from the virus (at 61 and generally healthy, I think I would win the triage war), I could well end up taking a bed and ventilator that might have been available to save someone else (if the poop hits the fan all at once in your community - like it did in Italy)!
One of the unique things about this virus is that it seems especially likely to require critical care. If the critical care facilities get overwhelmed the death rate suddenly jumps up as people who might otherwise be saved are turned away. I hope we never see that here, but it is a valid possibility if we get cocky about having beat the virus!

 

[Pogre]

Another way I use to help people understand the importance of adhering to the social distancing is that while I may not be at much risk of dying from the virus (at 61 and generally healthy, I think I would win the triage war), I could well end up taking a bed and ventilator that might have been available to save someone else (if the poop hits the fan all at once in your community - like it did in Italy)!
One of the unique things about this virus is that it seems especially likely to require critical care. If the critical care facilities get overwhelmed the death rate suddenly jumps up as people who might otherwise be saved are turned away. I hope we never see that here, but it is a valid possibility if we get cocky about having beat the virus!

That was another angle I used when explaining it. Soon as everything opens back up its gonna spread like wildfire and if infected there's a good chance you could ending up dying in the alley behind the hospital because they're completely overwhelmed and all the beds are full.

 

[KEW]

That was another angle I used when explaining it. Soon as everything opens back up its gonna spread like wildfire and if infected there's a good chance you could ending up dying in the alley behind the hospital because they're completely overwhelmed and all the beds are full.

You and, I assume, her are younger than I, so I think you both would likely have priority among those who needed the extra resources, but if there is one bed available and you drive in with your dad (also sick), say bye to dad.

 

[TLS Guy]

My answer: when there is an effective vaccine on the horizon.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should be a vivid lesson to all why we need vaccines. This is especially for all those who oppose vaccinations for infectious diseases. They have often asked about measles, why do we need a vaccine for measles when it's a largely harmless disease? (I always notice how they carefully avoid any mention of small pox or polio.) Now that we have seen what happens when a new and highly infectious virus appears. No one is immune to it, many people die, and the world's economy comes to a screeching halt because of the pandemic. Only a vaccine can change this.

That is absolutely true. Absent a vaccine the virus is in control and not us.

There is no immediate end to this in sight. I have had a lot of discussion and especially webinars.

So most restriction in the US do not go far enough. There should be no let up in any jurisdiction until well on the downside of any peak curve. Then the brakes will have to come off gradually, as dictated by antibody data on the populations affected. Almost certainly there will be recurrent peaks requiring lock downs. There will need to be social distancing to varying degrees until an effective vaccine is introduced and produced in large quantities. An effective anti viral agent would make restrictions less onerous.

Most feel there is going to be significant disruption into 2022. Probably the earliest and effective vaccine that would be available in the quantities required will likely be fall of 2021. With a lot of luck there is a possibility it will be a bit sooner. Air travel will have to be seriously restricted in particular until there is a vaccine.

At the financial webinar I attended yesterday, the feeling was that airlines will not survive this crisis. As far as I could tell most if not all pension fund managers divested of all airline and most hotel stocks early in this. The advice was totally to avoid those.

The general feeling was though, that the world financial system will actually come out of this quite well and really boom ahead post vaccine. There is no denying this will be a rough spot though, and that is assuming there is no mutation in the virus with a big upsurge in virulence. That would change the situation significantly.

Lastly there is no conflict between public health measures and economics. All experts were emphatic that letting the virus do more damage would be the absolute worst thing for the economic impact.

So I think we are in for a very difficult 18 months to 2 years, with significant impact on everyone.

 

[KEW]

Just to give some positive news, one of the Georgia Institute of Technology (Ga Tech) has been converted into a drive-through testing facility. They plan to test 1,000 a day. I don't think they are up to 1,000/day yet (this is new), but I have heard from people who visited the facility (with the prospect of implementing another testing operation at KSU, about 20 miles away, if needed) that it is running smoothly and looking good!
So it looks like high volume testing is coming soon. Although I don't know if this is a state, or federal (or City of Atlanta) initiative! The lack of FEMA - style coordination from the feds is disorienting!

 

[lovinthehd]

Until we have some way to at least test for who's got it/had it I think it's very hard to tell everyone to go back to normal (i.e. "turn it all back on"). Vaccine would certainly help but that's a big question mark for now as to the whens/ifs of its implementation. Certainly testing seems to be able to be refined sooner than that so we can at least make some better risk based decisions. I'm in a position where it really doesn't change my lifestyle....at least while I can purchase what I need. We had such a poorly organized response and seemingly still do for the time being which doesn't make any decision making easier....

 

[Pogre]

I'm not comfortable that it's even being considered, to open everything back up and return to business as normal this early. I believe it would be a horrible mistake. We need a vaccine.

 

[Danzilla31]

Another way I use to help people understand the importance of adhering to the social distancing is that while I may not be at much risk of dying from the virus (at 61 and generally healthy, I think I would win the triage war), I could well end up taking a bed and ventilator that might have been available to save someone else (if the poop hits the fan all at once in your community - like it did in Italy)!
One of the unique things about this virus is that it seems especially likely to require critical care. If the critical care facilities get overwhelmed the death rate suddenly jumps up as people who might otherwise be saved are turned away. I hope we never see that here, but it is a valid possibility if we get cocky about having beat the virus!

Man KEW I don't think it's about beating the virus if this is a boxing match it handily beat us in round 1 a 10-8 decisively straight up ass whooping

It's how we get back up for round 2 that's gonna count.

 

[Danzilla31]

I'm not comfortable that it's even being considered, to open everything back up and return to business as normal this early. I believe it would be a horrible mistake. We need a vaccine.

I don't think anyone in there right mind (at least I hope not) is saying just pick a date in 2 weeks and let her rip!!!!

But I do understand there point that we are going to have to begin starting things back up slowly within some type of set time period

If you keep things at a complete standstill for too long there isn't going to be anything to open back up too

Money and materialism is not every thing a lot of us can learn to live without our fancy toys and gadgets and living beyond our means but we're not talking about that level of economics were talking about the basics here the ability to sustain ourselves and ones family were talking survival there is a symbiotic relationship between society and humanity and economics at that level or as we talk about in psychiatric care Maslows hierarchy of needs

The problem as I see it is a vaccine is just too far out to count on right now

So the real solution is testing finding out where it's moving and making smart decisions to open things up slowly and strategically from there

The problem with that is we are still way way behind the curve on testing were not even close from what I can understand from the information I can gather

So we are going and our leaders are going to have to make some difficult decisions along the way because closing every thing down until 2022 isn't going to be a realistic option just like opening every thing up next week wouldn't be either

There's much I agree with on these threads but some of them I just can't see as realistic closing down all airlines?

If China and Russia and other major superpowers get back up again and there transportation infrastructure is just better then ours well.... That's not going to end well for us

Personally I wish more of the bailout money went towards hospitals and our medical system right now that's where we are going to need it the most in the months to come

Maybe they did put provisions in there when they passed the relief aid and I just missed it in there if so I apologize

 

[Danzilla31]

My country Greece closed everything very fast and you cant go out except for serious reasons. Or you got caught.
they didnt wait for everyone to become ill to act.
Countries that believed its a common flu and we will use horde firewall like Tramp or Boris Johnson, they were severly mistaken.
This 2 politicians must be judged in court for crimes against humanity.

Hey was it your country or Germany where some rich people tried to fly in because they were bored and the police straight up busted them my Dad said there was something on the news about it he was talking about it earlier

If so that's just crazy and kudos to the country for there response

 

[lovinthehd]

There's much I agree with on these threads but some of them I just can't see as realistic closing down all airlines?

Being from the logistics industry I'm more worried about ocean carriers as far more international cargo moves that way (and domestically its not all that much either in the big picture). We can live without business meetings easily enough IMO, and while tourism is important to a few places, its generally something we can get around I think. A friend of mine still works in the ocean logistics biz and he's looking at a possible permanent loss of job if it boils down to basic sailings (he's in sales and automation has come a long way in recent years). His company, one of the world's largest container lines, has cancelled many sailings and is losing quite a bit of money and while I've seen some noise about helping cruise lines....

 

[Danzilla31]

Being from the logistics industry I'm more worried about ocean carriers as far more international cargo moves that way (and domestically its not all that much either in the big picture). We can live without business meetings easily enough IMO, and while tourism is important to a few places, its generally something we can get around I think. A friend of mine still works in the ocean logistics biz and he's looking at a possible permanent loss of job if it boils down to basic sailings (he's in sales and automation has come a long way in recent years). His company, one of the world's largest container lines, has cancelled many sailings and is losing quite a bit of money and while I've seen some noise about helping cruise lines....

That's really helpful Lovin I appreciate that information that's good to know your right a lot more of that that's needed then civilian air travel and I'm sure our military infrastructure will keep necessary travel that's needed.

Really good point I didn't think of it from that side