I question that DAC technology is not mature at this point. Mature technology is technology for which any improvements in deployment are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Since the introduction of DSD, DAC technology has advanced in an evolutionary manner.
I do not see purchasing a good, stand alone, quality DAC as a risky investment for someone trying to improve their audio system. Of course changes occur over time, but I don't think everyone is going to be replacing their stand alone DAC's, or wishing they could afford to, because of yet another breaking development in the technology in the next 1-3 years.
That's a good point, Joe. (Evolutionary vs revolutionary). Revolutionary change would be from analog to digital. PCM to DSD seems more evolutionary because it is based on digital technology, which is the real revolutionary piece. Agree/disagree?
I acknowledge your point about people sticking to old tech. The only potential flaw in this is that if the digital formatting changes in a streaming environment, people will have no choice but to replace their DACs.
I wish this wouldn't be the case, but there are things that could happen relatively quickly. I believe that the vast majority of DACs are still hardware defined. Perhaps software defined DACs is the next evolutionary step? If it is, then such a change would represent a pretty significant change (maybe not revolutionary, but a high order evolutionary change),
(Note: We've seen a transition from hardware to software defined tech in radio and radar communications. The transition has been happening for some time now. If it hasn't already done so, it will overtake and completely displace hardware driven devices.
I can see this happening to DACs, as it is a way to better future proof devices and shift marketing further towards the far more profitable pay-to-subscribe or pay-to-upgrade models.
The underlying technologies are in place for this to happen: Streaming services, almost ubiquitous access to high speed IP services, cheaper processing power, automated billing, societal acceptance of technical penetration into home and property, etc.)
It would seem that our planning horizons are different. I see 1-3 years as a typical product cycle... and 10-20 years as a reasonable contemporary technology cycle. Obviously, the tech cycle is much harder to gauge accurately because of technological compression (historically, tech cycles were much longer but have been decreasing during the Information Age).
If this holds, then DACs as we currently know them could be reaching the end of their life cycle. While this is not a given, I think that we could at least agree that the current DACs on the market will not have the technological lifespan of, say, the record player because the latter is an example of technological stagnation whereas digital continues to move forward.
This is far-out thinking, to be sure. But it does touch on issues that audioholics may face as technology makes a greater impact on our hobby. It also has a way of shaping the way we manage risk.
I can think of several truly excellent DACs that cost $1k and up. I can't imagine buying them because technology is changing so fast that their features and performance characteristics will be available for hundreds of dollars within the next 24 months. This is something that I cannot say, with any confidence, about amps or loudspeakers.
So I'm not ready to say that the last leap in DACs has already taken place. I think we may be at half time of the football game. Caution is warranted, perhaps not enough to stop one from buying a DAC but certainly enough not to spend the kind of money on a cutting edge "DAC for life" (or the next 20 years, whatever comes sooner).