Yes, every refurbished unit was once brand new. And every BROKEN unit that needs to be repaired a few times a year was also once brand new.
It comes down to:
1. How lucky you are.
2. How reliable the brand is in the first place.
3. The design of the products. Is the design easy for techs to diagnose and replace parts or is the design extremely complex with a dozen layers of circuit boards?
4. The quality of the Repair Department (Quality Control).
If you or someone you know have experienced MULTIPLE cases where the MAIN FACTORY Repair Center cannot repair MULTIPLE units you've owned, your tolerance for Refurbished AVR will probably be extremely low.
There are always exceptions. Yes, you are taking a chance everyday when you wake up in the morning or cross the road.
But overall the odds of all refurbished AVR becoming bad is higher than the odds of all brand new AVR becoming bad. There is a good reason they give refurbished units 1YR warranty and new units 3YR warranty.
Yes, you can buy extended warranty for a refurbished unit. But if the odds are higher for failure, the refurbished units may need a lot of repairs. This means a lot of loss time for you.
Of course, you have to weigh the pros and cons and ask yourself if it is worth the risk.