Science vs Politicians

KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
This is probably one of the most important things happening on the earth right now!

Maybe we would have a different story if Gore did not address global warming - if a non-politician had wrote the same book, it maybe would be viewed as science instead of politics.


One very important point regarding global climate change that I don't see being made is that as changes cause people to become more desperate, the risk of wars increase... just as we see in the West Bank where a small section of fertile land is the cause of major conflict (though it looks like Israel effectively won that one).
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
This is probably one of the most important things happening on the earth right now!

Maybe we would have a different story if Gore did not address global warming - if a non-politician had wrote the same book, it maybe would be viewed as science instead of politics.


One very important point regarding global climate change that I don't see being made is that as changes cause people to become more desperate, the risk of wars increase... just as we see in the West Bank where a small section of fertile land is the cause of major conflict (though it looks like Israel effectively won that one).
Related to climate change (formerly known as 'Global Warming' and changed BECAUSE IT ISN'T GLOBAL), the #1 concern should be clean water for people to drink. Algore taking his sanctimonious attitude and then building a huge house that eats energy like it's a big, thick, juicy steak (or Tofu burger, for those who are so inclined) is one of the great Wizard of Oz acts of the century.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=2906888

I fully expect someone to tell me that ABC News is a shill for the Right Wing, but I don't care.

W built a house in the Midland, TX area that's off the grid, has a big cistern for collecting gray water and uses solar energy.

Who has less of an impact on the environment?

The list of reasons for affects on the environment that are caused by humans can't be politicized, can't be reduced to a few and absolutely should not be sugar-coated when countries that are finally entering the 20th Century WRT manufacturing don't make any attempt (at the outset) to make sure they don't produce too much pollution. Look at Bejing- people need to wear masks to filter the air at ground level- what is blowing across the ocean to the US and other countries? Look at India, South America and other backward places- they produce a lot of pollution and the US has reduced its output by a huge amount since the '60s. If the rain forests were left alone or harvested wisely, I'm not sure we would even be having this conversation- they clear cut to allow grazing by animals that produce large amounts of Methane and CO2 but the demand is the cause. I read comments by people online saying that the US should be like Sweden or Denmark since they can power their country 100% using solar energy but that's a very stupid comment because it completely ignores the scale of the problem and application. I see people writing that we should eat less red meat because it would reduce CO2 but the human population has tripled since 1950- what is the REAL problem?

I was in Los Angeles in '66- we went to Griffith Observatory and on the way, we saw a cloud of smog over the city. Halfway up, our eyes burned and we were coughing but when I was there in 2014, the air was far more clear and I never felt my eyes burning.

Are you saying that the wars we're seeing are because the temperature has risen and we're more apt to react violently?

I would say that some Middle Eastern countries are funding terrorists so they will be left alone.
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Related to climate change (formerly known as 'Global Warming' and changed BECAUSE IT ISN'T GLOBAL), the #1 concern should be clean water for people to drink. Algore taking his sanctimonious attitude and then building a huge house that eats energy like it's a big, thick, juicy steak (or Tofu burger, for those who are so inclined) is one of the great Wizard of Oz acts of the century.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=2906888

I fully expect someone to tell me that ABC News is a shill for the Right Wing, but I don't care.

W built a house in the Midland, TX area that's off the grid, has a big cistern for collecting gray water and uses solar energy.

Who has less of an impact on the environment?

The list of reasons for affects on the environment that are caused by humans can't be politicized, can't be reduced to a few and absolutely should not be sugar-coated when countries that are finally entering the 20th Century WRT manufacturing don't make any attempt (at the outset) to make sure they don't produce too much pollution. Look at Bejing- people need to wear masks to filter the air at ground level- what is blowing across the ocean to the US and other countries? Look at India, South America and other backward places- they produce a lot of pollution and the US has reduced its output by a huge amount since the '60s. If the rain forests were left alone or harvested wisely, I'm not sure we would even be having this conversation- they clear cut to allow grazing by animals that produce large amounts of Methane and CO2 but the demand is the cause. I read comments by people online saying that the US should be like Sweden or Denmark since they can power their country 100% using solar energy but that's a very stupid comment because it completely ignores the scale of the problem and application. I see people writing that we should eat less red meat because it would reduce CO2 but the human population has tripled since 1950- what is the REAL problem?

I was in Los Angeles in '66- we went to Griffith Observatory and on the way, we saw a cloud of smog over the city. Halfway up, our eyes burned and we were coughing but when I was there in 2014, the air was far more clear and I never felt my eyes burning.

Are you saying that the wars we're seeing are because the temperature has risen and we're more apt to react violently?

I would say that some Middle Eastern countries are funding terrorists so they will be left alone.
You mistake me for a party-line democrat!
Gore is a scum-bag politician and I am not surprised to find he is a energy hog or whatever. Hypocrisy runs deep among politicians, who with very few exceptions give lip-service to the public, but actions cater to money. My post is not about him other than to say it likely would have been better if he had not been involved in spreading the message of climate change because that caused the opposing party to desire to undercut the validity of his statements (that is what politicians do, after all).

Please, give me a good (non-politicized) link showing that climate change is not a global phenomenon! That is a much more interesting statement (to me) than saying Al Gore is two-faced!

Air pollution and water pollution in the U.S. are certainly better than they were in the past (it has been many years since we have seen rivers in the U.S. on fire), but don't mistake that for indicating that the overall impact on the earth has been reduced.

Are you saying that the wars we're seeing are because the temperature has risen and we're more apt to react violently?
Absolutely not, I am using the West Bank as an example of competition over limited resources. I do not believe the effects of Global Warming/Climate Change have limited resources enough to cause wars yet, but that may be the most significant means by which climate change impacts the world in the near future.

My point is humanity normally has a difficult time avoiding wars. Adding the stress of a changing climate (food reduction, loss of property value, etc) is likely to make for more desperate people.
The Nazis of WW2 taught us the dangers of leaving people in desperate situations, assuming you recognize that the desperate situation of the people of post WW1 Germany set the stage for Hitler to become a leader. That was after-all why we decided to assist in the post WW2 reconstruction of Germany (and Japan).
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Here is an education paper from NASA which discussed the use of "Global Warming" vs "Climate Change":
https://pmm.nasa.gov/education/articles/whats-name-global-warming-vs-climate-change

Their conclusion is we should be more interested in "Global Climate Change" because "Global Warming" is only one part of the way in which we are effecting the Climate. Precipitation changes may end up being a bigger concern. Note that they have retained the use of "Global" with climate change.

But temperature change itself isn't the most severe effect of changing climate. Changes to precipitationpatterns and sea level are likely to have much greater human impact than the higher temperatures alone. For this reason, scientific research on climate change encompasses far more than surface temperature change. So "global climate change" is the more scientifically accurate term. Like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we've chosen to emphasize global climate change on this website, and not global warming.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
You mistake me for a party-line democrat!
Gore is a scum-bag politician and I am not surprised to find he is a energy hog or whatever. Hypocrisy runs deep among politicians, who with very few exceptions give lip-service to the public, but actions cater to money. My post is not about him other than to say it likely would have been better if he had not been involved in spreading the message of climate change because that caused the opposing party to desire to undercut the validity of his statements (that is what politicians do, after all).

Please, give me a good (non-politicized) link showing that climate change is not a global phenomenon! That is a much more interesting statement (to me) than saying Al Gore is two-faced!

Air pollution and water pollution in the U.S. are certainly better than they were in the past (it has been many years since we have seen rivers in the U.S. on fire), but don't mistake that for indicating that the overall impact on the earth has been reduced.



Absolutely not, I am using the West Bank as an example of competition over limited resources. I do not believe the effects of Global Warming/Climate Change have limited resources enough to cause wars yet, but that may be the most significant means by which climate change impacts the world in the near future.

My point is humanity normally has a difficult time avoiding wars. Adding the stress of a changing climate (food reduction, loss of property value, etc) is likely to make for more desperate people.
The Nazis of WW2 taught us the dangers of leaving people in desperate situations, assuming you recognize that the desperate situation of the people of post WW1 Germany set the stage for Hitler to become a leader. That was after-all why we decided to assist in the post WW2 reconstruction of Germany (and Japan).
I wasn't coming after you, I just wanted to bash Algore. :D

Climate changes occur constantly- that's the one constant. Also, when they use a short period of time (even 200 years is a short time, really), they're trying to fit a narrative to their model. Have Humans affected the planet in bad ways? Impossible to answer that with "No" and get away with it. However, I commented about 'global warming' isn't what's happening. In order for this to be a correct name for it, the temperature would have to be higher in all test locations since the beginning of the sample period and it isn't. If this is going to be discussed scientifically, it needs to be dead accurate in all ways, including terminology.

I would argue that if the water and air in the US are better than in the past, it IS an indication that the planet is cleaner, or at least it would be if the rest of the World had maintained their own impact. The fact is, that much of the rest of the World HASN'T and some, like China, India and other countries that didn't have a large manufacturing base are polluting like it's some kind of contest and if you think about many products that are imported to the US, a huge amount use materials that can't be used here in ANY quantity by a manufacturer because they're too toxic before they dry/cure. I don't know what they do with the fumes, but I doubt they're particularly stringent in their collection/neutralization measures.

The question about temperature was a reference to what law enforcement knows- when the temperature goes up, tempers flare, too. However, far too many conflicts are based on ideology, rather than some other reason that could be avoided through compromise.

My opinion is this- if anyone thinks our impact on the planet can be stopped or reversed quickly, they don't understand science, OR people. There's a push for alternative fuel sources and I'm all for that, but it's not particularly focused. Part of the problem in this is the cost of fuel and its energy density vs other fuels- if we could find something that was equal to petroleum, it would be used now but there's no fuel that can be consumed that won't produce some kind of by-product and carbon-based fuels happen to be plentiful.

Humans ALWAYS have a difficult time avoiding wars and physical conflicts and this has only grown with the increase in population. The population of humans has grown from about 1 Billion in 1800 to roughly 7.5 Billion now- it's expected to rise to 11.2 by the year 2100- that's unsustainable and one thing that could solve the energy problem & all of what goes with it is a stabilization in the number of people on the planet. We can't feed everyone now- how will it be possible to feed 65% more?

One thing that hasn't happened in a long time is the plague. Wars have killed millions, but that's still not the same level of lives lost from the periods when this one disease killed large percentages of the total population. We know the mechanism behind its spread, we know how to treat it and now, we have more people than resources. I'm not saying the resources aren't available anywhere, I'm saying that in many places, they just don't have much more than dirt or sand and in those places, there's very little manufacturing, even by hand.

Again, I'm not arguing that the climate is changing, I just don't like people using the wrong words- this needs to be dealt with specifically, not generally and IMO, the US needs to do a better job of educating people. It's not difficult to recycle- it takes a little effort, but many won't do it unless they're forced. It's not hard to use less energy, but again, people need to see a good reason and replacing a working bulb isn't going to see many volunteers. The rising cost of energy works well, though- my energy bills are lower than more than five years ago because I have switched to LED bulbs, although I had been using CFL for a long time.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
Here is an education paper from NASA which discussed the use of "Global Warming" vs "Climate Change":
https://pmm.nasa.gov/education/articles/whats-name-global-warming-vs-climate-change

Their conclusion is we should be more interested in "Global Climate Change" because "Global Warming" is only one part of the way in which we are effecting the Climate. Precipitation changes may end up being a bigger concern. Note that they have retained the use of "Global" with climate change.
One point about precipitation has to do with where is falls- if it falls on land that doesn't absorb it, it will end up in some body of water and the only way the oceans and seas will rise is if this water isn't able to be absorbed. Concrete, asphalt and rooftops need to send it somewhere and local lakes & rivers are NOT the best place.
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
I wasn't coming after you, I just wanted to bash Algore. :D

Climate changes occur constantly- that's the one constant. Also, when they use a short period of time (even 200 years is a short time, really), they're trying to fit a narrative to their model. Have Humans affected the planet in bad ways? Impossible to answer that with "No" and get away with it. However, I commented about 'global warming' isn't what's happening. In order for this to be a correct name for it, the temperature would have to be higher in all test locations since the beginning of the sample period and it isn't. If this is going to be discussed scientifically, it needs to be dead accurate in all ways, including terminology.
NASA actually has a very nice site dedicated to informing anyone interested in Global Climate Change.
https://climate.nasa.gov/

I don't know what areas have not seen warming or why, but I do not see reason to reject their definition:
Global warming: the increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
So they are using average surface temperature of the Earth as their metric. That seems a reasonable measure of "global" temperature. I would have to know a lot more about weather patterns than I do to argue with NASA over this.
But I am curious about this. Do you know of some links giving specific info on those areas that have not seen warming? Are they actually seeing a steady cooling trend or just not seeing a steady warming trend.
Please post a link to a good reference on this. I don't see it as invalidating "Global Warming", but I am very interested in what areas and if any explanation is given for why they would go counter to the average temperature trends.

However, I don't understand your thought that they are not being scientific. Maybe it is because I know several scientist (and some ex-NASA rocket scientists) and the people I have met treat science as a philosophy of life - a way to see through human emotions and biases to see truth. I bet if you met these people you would realize they are not cavalier in their approach. Good scientific method is very important to them.

Why do you think all of these scientists have a "narrative" and what do you believe that narrative is?
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
One point about precipitation has to do with where is falls- if it falls on land that doesn't absorb it, it will end up in some body of water and the only way the oceans and seas will rise is if this water isn't able to be absorbed. Concrete, asphalt and rooftops need to send it somewhere and local lakes & rivers are NOT the best place.
That is obviously ignoring the effect of glacial ice melt raising the sea levels!
 
Pogre

Pogre

Audioholic Slumlord
It's happening. To deny it is to ignore all the data. Lots and lots of data. Scientists have drilled and taken ice core samples that date back 20,000 years or more and can see the periods of ice ages and global warming events that go back millenia. What's alarming is how fast it's happening right now. What has taken thousands of years to naturally occur is happening in decades and centuries now. There's a huge spike not long after the start of the industrial revolution and it's still rising.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
That is obviously ignoring the effect of glacial ice melt raising the sea levels!
But it's temporary to a degree- at some point, the water evaporates and is deposited on land.

I haven't seen any info about the volume of ice- any links to that? I wasn't ignoring it out of denial.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
NASA actually has a very nice site dedicated to informing anyone interested in Global Climate Change.
https://climate.nasa.gov/

I don't know what areas have not seen warming or why, but I do not see reason to reject their definition:

So they are using average surface temperature of the Earth as their metric. That seems a reasonable measure of "global" temperature. I would have to know a lot more about weather patterns than I do to argue with NASA over this.
But I am curious about this. Do you know of some links giving specific info on those areas that have not seen warming? Are they actually seeing a steady cooling trend or just not seeing a steady warming trend.
Please post a link to a good reference on this. I don't see it as invalidating "Global Warming", but I am very interested in what areas and if any explanation is given for why they would go counter to the average temperature trends.

However, I don't understand your thought that they are not being scientific. Maybe it is because I know several scientist (and some ex-NASA rocket scientists) and the people I have met treat science as a philosophy of life - a way to see through human emotions and biases to see truth. I bet if you met these people you would realize they are not cavalier in their approach. Good scientific method is very important to them.

Why do you think all of these scientists have a "narrative" and what do you believe that narrative is?
There's no way to deny that humans have adversely affected the planet and greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use have been identified as a major cause. I see people rattling on that we need to stop using fossil fuels, but they never have any solutions.

In order for the temperature to drop, manufacturing and transportation need to be reduced, drastically. How will the demand for these be reduced if the population continues to rise at an unprecedented rate? What fuel will do the job well enough to maintain any kind of reliable power grid without covering the planet with solar panels, disrupting rivers and killing millions of birds (bird lovers use this as their argument against windmills)?
 
ski2xblack

ski2xblack

Audioholic Samurai
Take a look at the tactics employed by the tobacco lobby in decades past, as they're strikingly similar to those used by the petroleum lobby today, complete with pseudo-science Foundations and paid shills, and with the interwebs as they are, an army of unpaid, scientifically naive partisan trolls to spread the gospel (even in places like Auidoholics).
 
Steve81

Steve81

Audioholics Five-0
I haven't seen any info about the volume of ice- any links to that? I wasn't ignoring it out of denial.
Here's Greenland for starters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet
The Greenland ice sheet (Danish: Grønlands indlandsis, Greenlandic: Sermersuaq) is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres (660,000 sq mi), roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland.

It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet. The ice sheet is almost 2,400 kilometres (1,500 mi) long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) at a latitude of 77°N, near its northern margin. The mean altitude of the ice is 2,135 metres (7,005 ft).[1] The thickness is generally more than 2 km (1.2 mi) and over 3 km (1.9 mi) at its thickest point. It is not the only ice mass of Greenland – isolated glaciers and small ice caps cover between 76,000 and 100,000 square kilometres (29,000 and 39,000 sq mi) around the periphery. If the entire 2,850,000 cubic kilometres (684,000 cu mi) of ice were to melt, it would lead to a global sea level rise of 7.2 m (24 ft).
How will the demand for these be reduced if the population continues to rise at an unprecedented rate?
Right now, hope rests on delivering technical aid to the third world, which would help them skip the dirtiest parts of their industrial revolution, and in the long term theoretically achieve a drop in birth rates associated with a more developed society.

What fuel will do the job well enough to maintain any kind of reliable power grid without covering the planet with solar panels, disrupting rivers and killing millions of birds (bird lovers use this as their argument against windmills)?
That's the trillion dollar question. There are some possibilities out there for generating the energy needed (advanced nuclear fission reactors today, nuclear fusion tomorrow), as well as large scale energy storage systems to smooth out power delivery of renewable energy sources (water pumping systems, flywheel farms, etc.), but getting the political will and $$$ to do anything remains the biggest challenge.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
Here's Greenland for starters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet

Right now, hope rests on delivering technical aid to the third world, which would help them skip the dirtiest parts of their industrial revolution, and in the long term theoretically achieve a drop in birth rates associated with a more developed society.

That's the trillion dollar question. There are some possibilities out there for generating the energy needed (advanced nuclear fission reactors today, nuclear fusion tomorrow), as well as large scale energy storage systems to smooth out power delivery of renewable energy sources (water pumping systems, flywheel farms, etc.), but getting the political will and $$$ to do anything remains the biggest challenge.
I asked about volume, not area.
 
Pogre

Pogre

Audioholic Slumlord
Right now, hope rests on delivering technical aid to the third world, which would help them skip the dirtiest parts of their industrial revolution, and in the long term theoretically achieve a drop in birth rates associated with a more developed society.
Here's an interesting video explaining what you describe in this post. This is one of my favorite YouTube channels.


Historically the more modern and educated a society becomes, there is a decrease in births. I believe the population will eventually level off.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
I would argue that if the water and air in the US are better than in the past, it IS an indication that the planet is cleaner, or at least it would be if the rest of the World had maintained their own impact. The fact is, that much of the rest of the World HASN'T and some, like China, India and other countries that didn't have a large manufacturing base are polluting like it's some kind of contest and if you think about many products that are imported to the US, a huge amount use materials that can't be used here in ANY quantity by a manufacturer because they're too toxic before they dry/cure. I don't know what they do with the fumes, but I doubt they're particularly stringent in their collection/neutralization measures.
On this point we agree. In the US things are much better, air pollution-wise, than as recently as the 1990s. Riverside, CA used to be uninhabitable as far as I was concerned.

We can't feed everyone now- how will it be possible to feed 65% more?
Whoops, you're totally incorrect. Not only can we feed everyone, we are producing enough food to make the majority of the world overweight. Last I read, human calorie production is 2700 kcal per day per person. Yes, there are some distribution issues, but let's not get carried away with Malthusian nightmares.
 
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