Study Concludes Blu-ray Not Red-Hot

[tn001d]

Blu-ray player prices are on par with DVD player prices when they first came out.. It took a few yrs before we started seeing $300 DVD players. People have just gotten so used to $50 dvd players and have forgotten how much they were when they first came out.

 

[gliz]

Do you mean "never," "just for now," or "until the prices come inline with current SD DVD prices"?

Jack

I mean never. $35 bucks is too much to pay for a movie IMHO. Here is a phrase I get tired of hearing "blu-ray player prices are about the same as when DVD player first came out". The player prices will indeed come down but I can all but promise you that the moves themselves will be $35 or higher. The only thing that is intriguing is the lossless audio codec's, but I bet that is an iinfinitesimal difference to most ears.

 

[Jack Hammer]

People keep mentioning the relation because it shows how the market drove the pricing down. Plenty of people said they would never buy a player or movie because it was too expensive and the prices would never come down.

Remember when VHS first came out. Players were selling for $500-$1000. The videos cost ~$80-100 each. No is trying to force you to jump on the bandwagon. If your not interested in getting BD, then don't. I think saying the prices will never come down is unrealistic, they are already coming down.

As a %, BD many BD titles are available for less than dvd's were 10 years ago. On Amazon you can get some older movies fairly inexpensive. T2, all 3 original Rambo movies, Short Cirtcuit, Total Recall, and some others are priced at about $12 new, with free shipping if your order goes over $25. There are several titles for under $20. All BD's they sell are a minimum of %30 off retail.

Jack

 

[Seth=L]

THIS HAPPENS IN EVERY SOFTWARE CHANGE OVER. The old hardware and software is cheaper than the new, go freiken figure. A better product, costing more, that's insanity.

The software prices as well as hardware prices will come down, or the format will fall. I doubt Blu-ray is so stupid that they don't know this. Sony has done some pretty silly stuff in the past, but I don't think they could be quite as silly to no drop prices eventually.

 

[patnshan]

I mean never. $35 bucks is too much to pay for a movie IMHO. Here is a phrase I get tired of hearing "blu-ray player prices are about the same as when DVD player first came out". The player prices will indeed come down but I can all but promise you that the moves themselves will be $35 or higher. The only thing that is intriguing is the lossless audio codec's, but I bet that is an iinfinitesimal difference to most ears.

I remember when VHS new releases were > $80 in the 1980's!!!

Seriously, it's the same thing with Blu Ray. DVD's are $5 now, I never thought we'd see that either.

Pat

 

[itschris]

There's also a profound lack of education and very poor marketing. Many just have no clue what is. My brother asked me which blu-ray player to get just the other day. I had to explain to both him and my sister that neither one could utilize such a player with their current TV's. My sister's TV isn't even HD and she was actually indignant that I suggested she get a new tv.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I mean never. $35 bucks is too much to pay for a movie IMHO.

I agree that 35 bucks is to much to pay, but why not rent movies? Why not wait for sales on the titles you really want to own? I mean, you don't own a HDTV that you paid premium dollars for did you? You don't pay for HD cable/satellite do you?

This is exactly what people who enjoy great video and audio do - they are willing to pay a premium early on for exceptional quality, and I can promise you that any TV worth its weight can show a marked improvement with BD over DVD.

Here is a phrase I get tired of hearing "blu-ray player prices are about the same as when DVD player first came out". The player prices will indeed come down but I can all but promise you that the moves themselves will be $35 or higher.

You can't promise this at all though, and even mentioning it is ludicrous. Right now I have over 30 BD titles - which I've paid on average 15 bucks each. Maybe not your taste, but a long way from 35 bucks, and the fact that I've gotten these titles for the price indicates that pricing most definitely will drop.

Remember - there is basically no additional cost in raw materials in BD over DVD, so the extra cost comes from authoring and from new production lines with far lower production runs than DVD currently has.

The only thing that is intriguing is the lossless audio codec's, but I bet that is an iinfinitesimal difference to most ears.

At a site like Audioholics, where people are willing to dump a fair bit on decent audio gear, I would say it's exactly the type of group who is very interested in that jump in audio quality to go with their HD film experience.

No, I get that you don't want to pay into high priced movies - either do I. But, I didn't drop several grand on a 60" Pioneer plasma to then throw SDTV at it. Just as I didn't drop a fair bit of cash on my audio to get subpar sound.

While there are many on the same page as you, they really are just blowing smoke because there will be a point in time where the pricing is attractive enough to get people to step all the way into HD, even if they start out just renting films. 20 bucks a month and I get to enjoy all the BDs I want.

 

[BBF]

First it has to be affordable – then the Joe Six Packs might actually care about the difference between 480p and 1080p with lossless sound.

I agree with the affordable part...

Re: 480p vs. 1080p...
Probably when people start watching <$1000 65" TV's from 15' away. 40" is the minimum for resolving 480p at 15', it's ~76" to resolve 720p from 15'. Joe's not going to be able to physically resolve the different between 480p and 1080p for under $1K for a quite a while. (viewing distance data from sound and vision magazine's viewing distance table)

Re: Lossless Sound...
Never. Joe sixpack doesn't care about lossless PERIOD. CD's aren't distinguishable from iTunes downloads to Joe Sixpack, so the need or even want for lossless is inconceivable.

 

[gliz]

all of your poits are very valid, thanks or the insight

Gliz

 

[BostonMark]

I rent blu ray

I got into Blu Ray because I finally made the splurge and bought a PS3. Although I love movies, and PS3's ability to play Blu Ray was a big factor, the deciding factor was Grand Theft Auto IV, and wanting to have a game system that my son didn't already have.

Although I will purchase a few BD for system show off purposes, and some concert BDs because I love music, I have given up on my need to continue to buy movies on DVD, BD or any other format. I find that "had to have" movies are watched once or twice then sit on the shelf.

For BD I rent from my local Hollywood Video and my Netflix subscription. There is no way I will shell out the money to replace my movie collection yet again on a new format. For the record though, I love the PQ and AQ of Blu Ray.

I have an Optoma HD70 Projector and a Da Lite Cinemavision 105" screen, a Yamaha 663 and Cambridge Soundworks MC400 speakers and a Velodyne Sub.

 

[dobyblue]

Blu is to remain niche market. It has been said and explained so many times.

It's been what... 3 years now that this technology is out and even the war and the blu-ray win and the news I still talk to people who have no clue what Blu-Ray is. When DVD was introduced, everyone was talking about it...

It is not a takeover, it is luxury!

Wow, what year did I sleep through?
Blu-ray hasn't hit its SECOND birthday yet and the only thing people were saying about DVD when it was 23 months old in February 1999 was that it was too expensive and was just a niche market.

There were 109,000 DVD players sold in February 1999, which corresponds to May 2008 in Blu-ray's lifespan.

 

[buzzy]

You need to add some big issues

We can probably all agree that focus groups and marketing brain-trusts aren’t going to help Blu-ray, but lower prices certainly will.

Add these to the list:

- Players and media that do what they are supposed to do.

- Hardware that overcomes the many problems people are having with HDMI.

The players and hardware still aren't ready for the mass market, in terms of usability.

 

[Seth=L]

There's also a profound lack of education and very poor marketing. Many just have no clue what is. My brother asked me which blu-ray player to get just the other day. I had to explain to both him and my sister that neither one could utilize such a player with their current TV's. My sister's TV isn't even HD and she was actually indignant that I suggested she get a new tv.

Funny, the Blu-ray player seemed to work fine with my SDTV, and the picture was a better as well. *shrugs*

 

[Seth=L]

I agree with the affordable part...

Re: 480p vs. 1080p...
Probably when people start watching <$1000 65" TV's from 15' away. 40" is the minimum for resolving 480p at 15', it's ~76" to resolve 720p from 15'. Joe's not going to be able to physically resolve the different between 480p and 1080p for under $1K for a quite a while. (viewing distance data from sound and vision magazine's viewing distance table)

Re: Lossless Sound...
Never. Joe sixpack doesn't care about lossless PERIOD. CD's aren't distinguishable from iTunes downloads to Joe Sixpack, so the need or even want for lossless is inconceivable.

If Joe didn't have a six pack, I'd probably kick his @ss.

 

[dobyblue]

Funny, the Blu-ray player seemed to work fine with my SDTV, and the picture was a better as well. *shrugs*

Agreed - I've had a PS3 hooked up via component to a D-Series JVC 32" outputting 480i and the difference was noticeable in picture quality.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Add these to the list:

- Players and media that do what they are supposed to do.

- Hardware that overcomes the many problems people are having with HDMI.

The players and hardware still aren't ready for the mass market, in terms of usability.

I think that there are plenty of things that can be listed as issues with Blu-ray, there's no doubt of that, but it should be noted that only certain players and certain TVs have issues, and it is actually the minority, not the majority that have these issues.

Almost no complaints at all arise from PS3 owners right? And they represent what... half or more of the total BD market at this time?

Then you have quality players from Panasonic, Denon, and others with solid firmware updates, with TYPICAL HDMI compatibility issues which are present in upconverting DVD players, cable boxes, etc. Not enjoyable, but hardly exclusive to BD - but part of HDMI hell. Things look pretty solid over component for anyone who wants it.

Media issues are an issue if people aren't doing firmware updates or buy from a crap manufacturer instead of a reputable one. Yet, firmware is increasingly a fact of life.

Yet, these are current buy in limiting factors, not patterns leading to show the death of the format. Pricing, compatiblity, feature sets, quality, etc. all will be improved as time continues. The first progressive scan DVD players were slow and cost $1,000 after the format had been around for a few years... were people apologizing for that? Now that we have HDMI capable upconverting 1080p DVD players for around 100 bucks, are we to think that Blu-ray won't follow a trend of decreasing prices with improved feature sets over the course of several years?

Until pricing hits a certain point will some people not buy it? Absolutely!
Will others wait until their version of the 'perfect' player comes along? Again - Of course!
Will there be people only renting titles until pricing falls? Sure!
Will there be hardware/software issues for another year or two? Darn right!

BUT: Are those items going to seriously harm the adoption of Blu-ray which is supported by almost every major CE manufacturer out there and every major Hollywood studio? How many formats failed which have had this level of broad support?

By years end, Blu-ray is on track to own 8% of the video market... of a multi-billion dollar market, and it's barely begun it's journey.

Could it end up a niche format?

Only if something truly superior comes along as an ownership model or if HDTV proves to be a failure.

Since the first isn't anywhere near being available, and the second is laughable, the odds are in BDs favor for continued growth following a pattern that will eventually match up with HD ownership across the board.

I have yet to hear a single arguement that would stand to refute this in any way, other than the VERY short term items already covered.

 

[rgriffin25]

Why is it that those of us that own the BD players believe in the format and those who don't doubt its chance of survival? Seriously guys, until you have experienced it on a daily basis you don't know what your missing.

Well, I have good news for you "Nay-Sayers".. it looks like your friends at walmart have stepped up their game as far as blu-ray support goes. Tonight while getting groceries with my wife, I stoped in to browse the games / movie section.. and to my suprise there was a whole row dedicated to Blu-ray. In addition to this row of movies with prices as low as $12.99 ( many for $14.99 to 19.99) there was a new sub $300 player available. From what most of you non owners have ben reporting is that BD needs to be below $300 by Christmas to have any chance of survival. Last I checked its the middle of May..

I would also have to agree with BMX, the whole industry is behind the format now, with more and more new releases coming out all the time. Blu-ray is not going to disappear anytime soon!

 

[Seth=L]

Agreed - I've had a PS3 hooked up via component to a D-Series JVC 32" outputting 480i and the difference was noticeable in picture quality.

JVC 27" I'art, came out the same time as the D-series. Good freiken TVs those JVCs from that time. I just got an LCD and I am enjoying the PS3 very much.

 

[Pyrrho]

Why is it that those of us that own the BD players believe in the format and those who don't doubt its chance of survival?
...

Not everyone who does not own a Blu-Ray player expects it to fail. In my case, I do not own one yet for the reasons I listed above. I do, however, expect to get one in a year or two. Probably, I will buy one from Oppo after a couple of months after they release a player. (I will probably wait a couple of months after it is released to make sure it is as well received as their DVD players.)

With the analog TV broadcasts ending next year, more people will be motivated to get a new TV, and then getting a prerecorded movie that has a picture that is as good as what they will be watching broadcast will become more appealing; DVDs, even upconverted with first rate equipment, just do not look as good as a good HD broadcast.

I think Blu-Ray probably has a bright future. At least, until some new thing comes along to replace it, which will probably be a few years.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Not everyone who does not own a Blu-Ray player expects it to fail. In my case, I do not own one yet for the reasons I listed above. I do, however, expect to get one in a year or two. Probably, I will buy one from Oppo after a couple of months after they release a player. (I will probably wait a couple of months after it is released to make sure it is as well received as their DVD players.)

I think your point of view actually mirrors people who are currently naysaying the format right now. The biggest naysayers I think WANT to buy into the format today, but are upset because they will have to wait for pricing to drop a bit and reliability to increase some. It just seems to irritate some people instead of being something they just accept like you do.

For me, I openly admit it was a total gamble when I got my PS3 opening week almost exclusively for BD playback. The fact that it works so well, and has actually improved in performance since the day I got it is all the reason I need to support the format as my own experience with BD has truly been flawless.

With the analog TV broadcasts ending next year, more people will be motivated to get a new TV, and then getting a prerecorded movie that has a picture that is as good as what they will be watching broadcast will become more appealing; DVDs, even upconverted with first rate equipment, just do not look as good as a good HD broadcast.

And BD looks phenomenal with a good encode. I've always felt that the big strong selling point of BD has been that it is HD. It's easy to sell to consumers who may not even appreciate the difference - if you buy a HDTV, you need an HD disc player to optomize the quality. For those who are buying Monster Cable and Bose products - this makes perfect sense.

The fact that it also is true doesn't matter in the least.

I think Blu-Ray probably has a bright future. At least, until some new thing comes along to replace it, which will probably be a few years.

There are very few mumblings of something new at this point. Always stuff is bouncing around R&D labs, but to successfully replace a standard requires the level of support across CE manufacturers and studios which BD currently has. This level of support is just incredibly hard to get on any new product. I expect we won't see a ownership model for HD come along for at least five years. More likely 7-10 would be my expectation as CEs and studios aren't keen on not getting the most out of their investment.