Prediction: Blu ray blows away HD DVD in 2008

[Emusica]

No offense to Emusica but if you, or anyone else for that matter, are planning on waiting it out to see who wins the format war; then those waiting may be getting their HD just after the cows arrive home.
Just my 2¢

Explain....

IMO you really owe it to yourself to pick up a cheap HD player to enjoy until the "war" is over. I bought my player for like $350 and have enjoyed every penny of it. Blu Ray could win tomorrow and I'd have no regrets.

I REALLY would like to get one, I just don't like spending money on something that wont amount to anything. I bought a Sony minidisc player back in the day... Nuff said...

I will get a PS3 eventually (not for the movies) so I will be a B-rayer by default. I ALMOST bought the HD player for my 360 but it can't pass the HD audio, so there was absolutely no point in me getting one, even though it was only $129 at the time. That was HARD for me to pass up, but I held steadfast and beat back temptation. Well, the temptation is back

 

[Gasman]

True, but in the interest of full disclosure Amazon is currently having a BOGO sale on HD DVD

Well, if you know the trend, then you also know that HD DVD has WAY less BOGO compared to BD in the last 3 months.
If you did not know the trend, trust me, I have bought thousands of dollars worth of BDs, 70% of them from BOGO offers.
And I still have more HD DVDs, than BDs, but only about 15% were bought with BOGO offers.

It is quite clear even with those poorly done charts, that the trend for HDM is rising.
But what is more visible, is the 2 days after Christmas with more sales on HD DVD (which I had already predicted) all the new owners that were given 98.00 HD DVD players for Christmas, are going to start buying in the coming days.
The 'kids' that got a PS3 for Christmas will not go out and buy 100.00 ~ 500.00 in movies at one shot.

 

[dorokusai]

I hope that BR "wins" but at least my only investment is a PS3 at this point. The fact it plays BR movies was a pleasant feature to have

Mark
Polk Audio CS

 

[runninkyle17]

While I like Blu-ray because it is a superior technology to HD-DVD I can't really stand behind Sony on any of their products.

The only reason I have a PS3 is because I got it free due to a best buy mistake (hehehe). Again, the only problem with both HD-DVD and Blu-ray is the price. Most people will get on the bandwagon though because anything HD must be better right.

Personally, the only thing that I think HD is truly good for is sports. Most movies look great on SD DVD. One thing is for sure, normal people will continue to be confused about HD-DVD and Blu-ray for years to come!

 

[dorokusai]

Absolutely. I'm very disappointed with Sony AGAIN, since they want to stranglehold their advancements just like the days of Beta. That's a generic statement but ever since the failure of SACD vs DVD-A....I've been unhappy with the line of thinking, or lack thereof.

If SACD was marketed, at all, it might have taken off but it's almost like it was doomed from the get go. Sorry to derail, back on subject.

Mark

 

[aberkowitz]

It is quite clear even with those poorly done charts, that the trend for HDM is rising.
But what is more visible, is the 2 days after Christmas with more sales on HD DVD (which I had already predicted) all the new owners that were given 98.00 HD DVD players for Christmas, are going to start buying in the coming days.
The 'kids' that got a PS3 for Christmas will not go out and buy 100.00 ~ 500.00 in movies at one shot.

Actually, you can't take any of what you said away from the charts because it only measures sales ranks at one store (not total sales, not $ of total sales), which over the past several months has offered way more BOGO deals than any of the other online retailers (As a PS3 owner myself, I'm always on the lookout). We have no clue from the data what the difference between #1 and #5 is, or even #10 from #250. Based on this set of data we really know nothing about who is doing better.

There was a magazine that I found once online that had some decent stats, but for some reason I cannot find it anymore. If you want to see real trends data provided by Nielsen check out this site http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/VideoScan/. According to Nielsen data (which I will admit is not the most reliable, but is a much better sample than Amazon sales ranks), BD has been outselling HD DVD every week consistently for the past 2 months- the only blip being the release of Transformers.

My personal opinion is that nothing will be over until the studios say its over. I'll probably go out and purchase and HD player anyway just to hedge my bets (mainly so I start buying movies).

 

[Emusica]

Absolutely. I'm very disappointed with Sony AGAIN, since they want to stranglehold their advancements just like the days of Beta. That's a generic statement but ever since the failure of SACD vs DVD-A....I've been unhappy with the line of thinking, or lack thereof.

If SACD was marketed, at all, it might have taken off but it's almost like it was doomed from the get go. Sorry to derail, back on subject.

Mark

I agree. I loved the way SACD and DVD-audio sounded. I wish those formats would have done better. I have a few DTS-audio cd's and a DTS 96/24 music cd that sound phenomenal.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Is that a Sylvia Brown type of a prediction? LOL

 

[B3Nut]

Is that a Sylvia Brown type of a prediction? LOL

LOLOL!!!! Oh god...if she ever gets interested in audio/video, we're doomed, I tell ya! What a dingbat she is...claiming to see a lost person alive when the man who murdered her was sitting in the audience...that was freaking rich.

Todd in Cheesecurdistan

 

[Electone]

I think blu-ray will win over. You can fit so much more in a blu-ray disc compared to a hd-dvd. Also, here in Canada, there was a special on a toshiba hd-dvd player as well, I am not sure if its the same one you're tanlking about, but it only was able to output up to 720p? at 99$ its pretty tempting, but I dont think I would get it, since it kind of defeats the purpose.

This is exactly the misinformed type of information the BD camp is forcing down the average consumer's throats. First, other than Transformers (no lossless track), there have been no capacity issues with HD DVD so far. Considering the recent development of the triple layer 51gb HD DVD disc, capacity will be a wash. Second, the lower priced Toshiba HD DVD players output 1080i and if you connect to a 1080p television with a good deinterlacer, there is no difference between 1080i and 1080p.

 

[Thunder18]

Not every TV does a good job a deinterlacing. In fact some do it quite poorly.

 

[skads_187]

This is exactly the misinformed type of information the BD camp is forcing down the average consumer's throats. First, other than Transformers (no lossless track), there have been no capacity issues with HD DVD so far. Considering the recent development of the triple layer 51gb HD DVD disc, capacity will be a wash. Second, the lower priced Toshiba HD DVD players output 1080i and if you connect to a 1080p television with a good deinterlacer, there is no difference between 1080i and 1080p.

Yes, but, say for example, blu-ray actually filled up a blu-ray disc to its full capacity (dual layer) for the 007 complete series, they would be able to do it with a lot less discs. Say maybe 2-3 movies per disc. Where as HD-dvd would maybe fit 1-2. These numbers might not be correct or exact, but the idea is there is more capacity on the actual disc to fit more media.
and to answer another point, imagine blu-ray considering triple layer? 75GB?

 

[gus6464]

Yes, but, say for example, blu-ray actually filled up a blu-ray disc to its full capacity (dual layer) for the 007 complete series, they would be able to do it with a lot less discs. Say maybe 2-3 movies per disc. Where as HD-dvd would maybe fit 1-2. These numbers might not be correct or exact, but the idea is there is more capacity on the actual disc to fit more media.
and to answer another point, imagine blu-ray considering triple layer? 75GB?

TDK already has a 100GB 4-layer BD. Hitachi as well.

 

[smurphy522]

Explain....

Emusica, It was meant to be a reference of when the cows come home:

"then those waiting may be getting their HD just after the cows arrive home"
Was a derivative of when the cows come home, i.e. a long time coming if ever.

 

[aberkowitz]

Well, if you know the trend, then you also know that HD DVD has WAY less BOGO compared to BD in the last 3 months.
If you did not know the trend, trust me, I have bought thousands of dollars worth of BDs, 70% of them from BOGO offers.
And I still have more HD DVDs, than BDs, but only about 15% were bought with BOGO offers.

It is quite clear even with those poorly done charts, that the trend for HDM is rising.
But what is more visible, is the 2 days after Christmas with more sales on HD DVD (which I had already predicted) all the new owners that were given 98.00 HD DVD players for Christmas, are going to start buying in the coming days.
The 'kids' that got a PS3 for Christmas will not go out and buy 100.00 ~ 500.00 in movies at one shot.

More data to counter your argument. Check the the highdefdigest this morning after Amazon's BD BOGO deal... the entire top 10 is BD, with the best HD DVD being at #55.

If you really want to see how much BOGO means to amazon sales ranks, go to http://charts.highdefdigest.com/history.aspx and change the time span to 7 days. This is the transition from HD BOGO to BD BOGO.

 

[Halon451]

I predicted Blu-ray would prevail in the format war just about as soon as they both hit the market. This is not surprising news.

 

[Gasman]

Abe,

That graph is still proving my point. Look at the last 90 days, and you still will see that HD DVD is still pretty high in sales.
As the boost, has finally lifted it to a area that should normalize.

As well, when I said this.

Well, if you know the trend, then you also know that HD DVD has WAY less BOGO compared to BD in the last 3 months.

It also has proven a point, as the HD DVD only needed 1 1/2 pages of discs that were BOGO to boost sales to very likely amazon highest HD DVD sales, ever..
Yet BD has 4 pages to get it back up in sales (which is common).

Personally, I do not care (I am neutral), I am just sharing an opinion and the fact that in the coming weeks (after X-mas)(not 1 week), as I stated.
That there WILL be a huge uplift in HD DVD sales, due to all the players that were sold (not so much for the PS3s).

EDIT:: Doh, I did say coming days in one of my previous posts.
But had clearly meant, in the coming time (weeks, maybe a month or 2) for people who got the new players to figure out where to shop for the discs.

EDIT #2: whoah, I was going to get some BD BOGOs, but damn, they have almost all the catalog titles at 27.95 up from the normal 19.95
HD DVD BOGO did not do that.... Dang it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Granted I was thinking of getting Mr & Mrs Smith. and sadly will have to pick a few more titles... Grrrrrrr.

 

[aberkowitz]

Abe,

That graph is still proving my point. Look at the last 90 days, and you still will see that HD DVD is still pretty high in sales.
As the boost, has finally lifted it to a area that should normalize.

As well, when I said this.


It also has proven a point, as the HD DVD only needed 1 1/2 pages of discs that were BOGO to boost sales to very likely amazon highest HD DVD sales, ever..
Yet BD has 4 pages to get it back up in sales (which is common).

Personally, I do not care (I am neutral), I am just sharing an opinion and the fact that in the coming weeks (after X-mas)(not 1 week), as I stated.
That there WILL be a huge uplift in HD DVD sales, due to all the players that were sold (not so much for the PS3s).

EDIT:: Doh, I did say coming days in one of my previous posts.
But had clearly meant, in the coming time (weeks, maybe a month or 2) for people who got the new players to figure out where to shop for the discs.

EDIT #2: whoah, I was going to get some BD BOGOs, but damn, they have almost all the catalog titles at 27.95 up from the normal 19.95
HD DVD BOGO did not do that.... Dang it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Granted I was thinking of getting Mr & Mrs Smith. and sadly will have to pick a few more titles... Grrrrrrr.

Mr. & Mrs. Smith just wasn't that good anyway.....

I don't discount the fact that HD DVD has upticked, I just disagree with your logic that all of these players are selling more discs. I also disagree with using amazon data as an indicator, particularly since they consistently have BOGOs which wildly skew the data. The only link I can find with reasonable data is this one- http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/VideoScan/. According to Nielsen data (which I will admit is not the most reliable, but is a much better sample than Amazon sales ranks), BD has been outselling HD DVD every week consistently for the past 2 months- the only blip being the release of Transformers.

Yes, the data only goes through the week of 12/16, but that does include a lot of christmas shipping. We shall see what happens going forward, but if you look at most of the future releases coming in the next month or two, there are not many good HD DVD movies that are coming out.

 

[gus6464]

Abe,

That graph is still proving my point. Look at the last 90 days, and you still will see that HD DVD is still pretty high in sales.
As the boost, has finally lifted it to a area that should normalize.

As well, when I said this.


It also has proven a point, as the HD DVD only needed 1 1/2 pages of discs that were BOGO to boost sales to very likely amazon highest HD DVD sales, ever..
Yet BD has 4 pages to get it back up in sales (which is common).

Personally, I do not care (I am neutral), I am just sharing an opinion and the fact that in the coming weeks (after X-mas)(not 1 week), as I stated.
That there WILL be a huge uplift in HD DVD sales, due to all the players that were sold (not so much for the PS3s).

EDIT:: Doh, I did say coming days in one of my previous posts.
But had clearly meant, in the coming time (weeks, maybe a month or 2) for people who got the new players to figure out where to shop for the discs.

EDIT #2: whoah, I was going to get some BD BOGOs, but damn, they have almost all the catalog titles at 27.95 up from the normal 19.95
HD DVD BOGO did not do that.... Dang it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Granted I was thinking of getting Mr & Mrs Smith. and sadly will have to pick a few more titles... Grrrrrrr.

So what happens 3 months from now BD is still outselling HD DVD? People are now holding off buying discs until next christmas?

 

[Gasman]

point well taken, gus