mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
While searching info on that new Google Chrome, ran into these three interesting links: trade deficits, national deficits, and national debt.
Where are we as a nation heading to? Any discussion?
By the way, I noted that England has a huge debt, yet its currency is so strong. Curious.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1114tradedeficit1.pdf

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1121budgetdeficit.pdf

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1128busnationaldebt.pdf
 
annunaki

annunaki

Moderator
While searching info on that new Google Chrome, ran into these three interesting links: trade deficits, national deficits, and national debt.
Where are we as a nation heading to? Any discussion?
By the way, I noted that England has a huge debt, yet its currency is so strong. Curious.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1114tradedeficit1.pdf

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1121budgetdeficit.pdf

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/11-07/1128busnationaldebt.pdf
I believe their currency is strong because each British "pound" is still backed by a pound of sterling silver. Not to say a commodity backed currency is necessary to keep the value, but it sure helps.
 
Davemcc

Davemcc

Audioholic Spartan
Good solid links. This is the kind of information more people need to read and understand. The linked articles are very factual in nature but it's the interpretation of the information that makes it relevant.

It's a very complex and interrelated economy but from my view, the combination of the national debt, gov't deficit and trade deficit show a disturbing trend that is the cause of the weakened dollar.

Since I've already been drinking this morning, I'll just leave you with a few thoughts.
The weak dollar is already hurting China's export economy. A great many Chinese manufacturers are going bankrupt because their products are now more expensive in the U.S.
There will likely be a period of inflation as prices readjust to the new currency level.
The low dollar will make it more economically viable to manufacture products domestically, hence the following:
The domestic economy will start to heat up but the unemployment level is still very low. The labor market should be increased or the American economy may not be able to grow to it's potential. Yes, that means MORE legal immigration.
The American government should try to reign in it's deficit. Paying down the debt may not be that important in the big scheme of things. Let inflation and % of GDP tame the debt.

I've bet my paycheck on the U.S. economy. My last round of investments went to Cdn dollar U.S. small cap mutual funds. They are still taking a beating right now, but I see tremendous potential in the strength of American small business in a devalued dollar situation and even more growth when the U.S. dollar rises against the Cdn dollar on the strength of the American economy.
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
The problem I see with that huge debt is the interest. Granted, a good part is at a relatively low rate but, not that long ago the interest on the debt was almost equal to the defense budget. For one expenditure you got a return, for the other, nothing. And it will go on as long as there is such a debt.
I certainly don't run my personal finances that way. And, it seems that the 3 areas have increased such a huge amount:eek:
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
It may get even more interesting should the GSE's Fanny & Freddie become (more) insolvent and the enterprises be nationalized (again). The FDIC is also putting out feelers that they'll be needing more money for "cash flow" purposes. I think I've read that annual interest on the debt is in the $300B neighborhood at present.

I'm investing in the ink and paper markets;)

Mort
 
Adam

Adam

Audioholic Jedi
I'm investing in the ink and paper markets;)
I like that! Good idea. Me? I'm investing in the bottled water, canned goods, and ammo markets. :) J/K. No need to report me as some freak boy who's bunkered down in the mountains with his .50 cal. I only have a .308...
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
... I think I've read that annual interest on the debt is in the $300B neighborhood at present.
Mort

That is still a whole lot of coins and what do we get for it? Instant gratification for spending what we don't have?:mad:

I see no end in sight, not in my lifetime, not my grand kids if and when that happens;)
It's as if it is a sin not to have a national debt.
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
Not to worry, the Federal Reserve is ready to help. The TAF and TSLF auctions have already been a big hit. Trading Treasury debt for asset backed securities has got to be a real money maker for the taxpayer in the long run. Between the two, they've crossed the trillion mark in short of a year. Whether it shows up on the national debt is a matter of accounting......and you just know that government will always be truthful on that:rolleyes:

Mort (who's looking forward to becoming a billionaire just like the good people of Zimbabwe......and has a 223 to go with his 308;))
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
What a difference a week or so makes:eek: National Socialism here we come....or maybe we're already there.

Mort (who thought he'd run this up the flagpole for mtrycrafts)
 
J

Joe Schmoe

Audioholic Ninja
The immense amount of money being hemhorraged into an utterly useless war every day is the real root of the problem.
 
gene

gene

Audioholics Master Chief
Administrator
Hmm given all the recent bail outs of banks and insurance companies I wonder if I filed chapter 11 for Audioholics if I could score a nice bail out too :D
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
Not a bad idea. Hey, anything is possible in the good old IOUSA...the land of the free (lunch)

Mort (who's looking forward to the new Audioholics web site that passes out $100 bills with each login)
 
C

cbraver

Audioholic Chief
1/5 home owners are in foreclosure, which basically means to me that 1/5 families are broke.

Stock market has gone down like 25% in value over the past three days.

And the pressure for companies to "go green" is a difficult thing to do when you don't have the money to do it.... yet its getting increasingly difficult to make money without "going green.":confused:

I can't pretend to understand where we are at right now.
 
M

Mort Corey

Senior Audioholic
Regarding forclosures, I suspect that there are quite a few people that are so upside down on their mortgages that they may be just turning in the keys in an effort to preserve what capital they may have left. I know of a couple of people in that boat that haven't made a mortgage payment in nearly a year and have yet to receive any forclosure notice. I suspect that their mortgagee does not want the charge off showing on their books which might then dilute their required reserves (on paper). The show goes on.

As to where we are.....we're freaking doomed:D

Mort (getting his chips together to go visit Adam)
 
R

rnatalli

Audioholic Ninja
Interest rates down, stock market caving, currency down = short sell, sell bonds and buy loads of stocks when things bottom out, buy real estate overseas using mortgages in Euros.

Interest rates up, stock market peaking, currency up = buy bonds, sell stocks, refinance Euro mortgage into Dollars (the Euro will cave soon enough).

Crisis and opportunity are often the same thing and there's plenty of it right now. Of course it doesn't help those who can't pay the bills this month.
 
Last edited:
J

jamie2112

Banned
1/5 of all families losing their houses is unacceptable to me.... We have got to change our financial structure in this country......Oh jeeze did I really almost get political..:eek::eek::eek:
 
D

D.R. Payne

Audioholic
These bailouts are precisely why there are so many homes in foreclosure. I'll have to dig up a great article called "Too big to fail". Essentially, there has been federal legislation for quite some time that encourages mortgage lending to people who may not be able to afford to pay it back. The Fed's lowering (and lowering, and lowering) of interest rates post 9/11 combined with bad laws and short-term thinking of both lenders and ordinarily sensible homeowners created a perfect storm.

1) People owning homes that had no business owning homes in the first place. As soon as one lender starts raking in $$ due to irresponsible shortsightedness the pressure is on the others to follow suit.
2) Low interest rates makes borrowing money cheap, makes buying homes easy, drives more buyers into the market, which drives prices of homes up.
3) Driving the prices of homes up so quickly tempts many people to re-appraise in order to tap into their instant home equity (paper wealth)
4) Chaos

Ever since Lee Iococa was given Hero status by "saving" Chrysler with a $4billion bailout ($4bil was a lot bigger then that it is now, inflation adjusted) there has been an idea that certain businesses are "too big to fail". They are considered so essential to the functioning of the US that the taxpayers must step in and keep them from laying off their employees, selling their assets, and injuring everyone they do business with in the process. The problem with creating an environment like this is that it affects decision making, especially where risk is involved. If my business is worth $200million I absolutely have to be responsible or face unforgiving consequences. If my business is worth $70billion, however, my tolerance to risk is much greater since devastatingly poor management might not cause my stock to be worthless when the Fed rides in to lend me money.

If it was an unambiguos policy that we let irresponsible businesses fail, we would see different actions taken by the "leadership" in companies like AIG.
 
Adam

Adam

Audioholic Jedi
D.R. Payne, I was just talking to my office mate about that topic this morning. Excellent post.
 

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