Deconstructing E3 - Winners and Losers

[admin]

E3 is over and the fallout is still... um... falling. While there were a ton of great looking games and technology on the horizon, I wanted to take a look at how the big three faired - at least from the standpoint of their press conferences. To me, the press conferences indicate what they are trying to communicate to the consumer. Whether or not they can identify what will excite the masses (or at least the core) is beside the point.


Discuss "Deconstructing E3 - Winners and Losers" here. Read the article.

 

[MinusTheBear]

Excellent article Tom. I have to agree with everything you said. I just want to play all these games now. We will see how this all ends up in a years time. Maybe next year we will see some teasers of Nintendo's and Microsofts successors to the Wii and 360. I think Nintendo will be the first one out of the gate with a new console.

 

[Tom Andry]

I tend to agree. Once people stop buying the peripherals, then the Wii is going to pretty much die. Look for the future Nintendo offering to keep the motion control but with a much more powerful box. Probably no new peripherals either.

 

[GlocksRock]

Hopefully all the current periphials will still work with the new nintendo console.

 

[MinusTheBear]

I tend to agree. Once people stop buying the peripherals, then the Wii is going to pretty much die. Look for the future Nintendo offering to keep the motion control but with a much more powerful box. Probably no new peripherals either.

It will be interesting where Nintendo goes from here. They are kind of in a lose lose situation to me when it comes to their future console. I do not think Nintendo can have the same sucess next console taking the same approach. If they take a different approach and offer a much more powerful machine next time around I still do not think they will capture any of the market from the hardcore gamers, naturally they will be playing their Sony and Microsoft consoles (Nintendo has really segregated themselves from that part of the market). The motion controller will be a mute point for Nintendo as well because I am sure Sony and MS will have one of their own. I am not the biggest fan of the motion controller (I still like the old fashioned pressing of buttons) but I do not think MS and Sony would be stupid enough not to have this included in their next console (one less reason to buy a Wii). You will probably see Nintendo slipping back into third place next time around taking either approach.

 

[Tom Andry]

I think we are only a generation or two away from Nintendo taking the Sega route. They pretty much still have a lock on the handheld market but how long will that last with Sony making inroads? Appalling to the masses has kept Nintendo in the game for this generation. I really don't see where they are going to go from here.

 

[MinusTheBear]

Nintendo made some good managerial decisions in the fact they took an approach that was different and innovative which did pay off but it will be only short term because the console technology is outdated and the innovation can be easily emulated by competitors. Nintendo has also made very bad managerial decisions regarding any future console because of how far they have segregated themselves from the other competitors and more importantly the hard core gamers. In my opinion this is a huge disadvantage for them. Companies should be always be looking to the future and that is what I like about Sony and MS. There is tons of potential for MS and Sony, not so much for Nintendo. MS and Sony can also throw around money like drunken sailors I am not so sure about Nintendo.

 

[gus6464]

I think we are only a generation or two away from Nintendo taking the Sega route. They pretty much still have a lock on the handheld market but how long will that last with Sony making inroads? Appalling to the masses has kept Nintendo in the game for this generation. I really don't see where they are going to go from here.

The PSP is no where near in the realm of the DS in installed base. DS is about to hit 120 million units whereas the PSP is just hitting 20m. Sony still has a very but very long way to go if it wants to top the handheld market.

 

[engtaz]

I was suprised you did not mention the Final Fantasy win for Xbox 360. Well written article.

engtaz

 

[aberkowitz]

Nintendo made some good managerial decisions in the fact they took an approach that was different and innovative which did pay off but it will be only short term because the console technology is outdated and the innovation can be easily emulated by competitors. Nintendo has also made very bad managerial decisions regarding any future console because of how far they have segregated themselves from the other competitors and more importantly the hard core gamers. In my opinion this is a huge disadvantage for them. Companies should be always be looking to the future and that is what I like about Sony and MS. There is tons of potential for MS and Sony, not so much for Nintendo. MS and Sony can also throw around money like drunken sailors I am not so sure about Nintendo.

But couldn't you make the argument that the console technology was outdated even before it was released? Despite this the Wii has been a phenomenal success and continues to attract buyers (the Nintendo World store in Manhattan is always jammed and everybody walks out with a bag). As you say Nintendo has segregated themselves from the hardcore gamers- a conscious decision which will pay off for them if they stick to that strategy. By not going after hardcore gamers they don't necessarily have to release a "new to the world" console every 3-5 years. As long as there are new games and peripherals that will work with the Wii their target market, non gaming kids and adults, will continue to purchase them. I disagree with the assertion that they aren't looking to the future- they're just looking to a drastically modified future than the rest of the industry. Even Sony and MS have both realized that there are only so many gamers who will spend $500+ every few years to buy a brand new system, so they're both attempting to make their consoles appeal to buyers outside just game players- Sony with BD and movie downloads, MS with HD DVD (formerly) and now Netflix.

 

[MinusTheBear]

But couldn't you make the argument that the console technology was outdated even before it was released?

Despite this the Wii has been a phenomenal success and continues to attract buyers (the Nintendo World store in Manhattan is always jammed and everybody walks out with a bag). As you say Nintendo has segregated themselves from the hardcore gamers- a conscious decision which will pay off for them if they stick to that strategy. By not going after hardcore gamers they don't necessarily have to release a "new to the world" console every 3-5 years. As long as there are new games and peripherals that will work with the Wii their target market, non gaming kids and adults, will continue to purchase them.



I disagree with the assertion that they aren't looking to the future- they're just looking to a drastically modified future than the rest of the industry. Even Sony and MS have both realized that there are only so many gamers who will spend $500+ every few years to buy a brand new system, so they're both attempting to make their consoles appeal to buyers outside just game players- Sony with BD and movie downloads, MS with HD DVD (formerly) and now Netflix.

Now who are you talking about Nintendo or its competitors. The actual hardware for the Wii was outdated by 3-4 years now even before it was released. The only things that are not outdated on the Wii are its perepherials example Wiimote etc. MS and Sony's systems were not outdated before they were released. These machines produce(d) console games that have never been done before when it comes to graphics, sound, frames per second etc etc. The Wii specs are equivalent to like an xbox and the games are much worse.

Really, you believe that. Non gaming kids and adults will continue to buy peripherials and consoles. Its like saying "non audiophiles" will continue to updgrade their home theatre system every year or so. That is a bit of a stretch. Do you think mommy and daddy will continue to buy consoles and expensive perepherials and games for their kids...not likely (perpherials are expensive, games are not cheap either). Eventually mommy and daddy will realize how expensive it is to keep the Wii current...it adds up...probably the most expensive system if you really want to play everything on it.. However it is not a stretch to say that hardcore gamers will continue to support new consoles. Just look at the history of this industry. This is a much more stable market where the consumers have $$$ to spend on these such things.



Nintendo's approach to the future is a very risky one. All fads eventually fade away.

 

[Tom Andry]

The PSP is no where near in the realm of the DS in installed base. DS is about to hit 120 million units whereas the PSP is just hitting 20m. Sony still has a very but very long way to go if it wants to top the handheld market.

Totally agree. Nintendo would have to do something monumentally stupid to lose the stranglehold they have on the handheld market. While I've never used a DS, I've played the PSP and it just sucks. The graphics are nice but it is hard to hold and the bumpers are nearly impossible to use. My point was that Sony was at least trying to get into the handheld market. The PSP is not going to be the one to topple Nintendo but maybe the next generation console will be better. We'll see.

 

[aberkowitz]

Now who are you talking about Nintendo or its competitors. The actual hardware for the Wii was outdated by 3-4 years now even before it was released. The only things that are not outdated on the Wii are its perepherials example Wiimote etc. MS and Sony's systems were not outdated before they were released. These machines produce(d) console games that have never been done before when it comes to graphics, sound, frames per second etc etc. The Wii specs are equivalent to like an xbox and the games are much worse.

Really, you believe that. Non gaming kids and adults will continue to buy peripherials and consoles. Its like saying "non audiophiles" will continue to updgrade their home theatre system every year or so. That is a bit of a stretch. Do you think mommy and daddy will continue to buy consoles and expensive perepherials and games for their kids...not likely (perpherials are expensive, games are not cheap either). Eventually mommy and daddy will realize how expensive it is to keep the Wii current...it adds up...probably the most expensive system if you really want to play everything on it.. However it is not a stretch to say that hardcore gamers will continue to support new consoles. Just look at the history of this industry. This is a much more stable market where the consumers have $$$ to spend on these such things.



Nintendo's approach to the future is a very risky one. All fads eventually fade away.

I should have clarified- I was speaking of Wii technology. We both agree that it was clearly outdated long before it was released.

Do I think it's a certainty that Nintendo's strategy is successful over the long run? Definitely not, but I don't think anybody saw the Wii being even half as successful as it was. The console has sold over 22 million units worldwide- and people are still clamoring for the units! If this were some start-up then I would totally agree that this was a fad- but Nintendo has remained relevant in the video game world since the late 1970s. I give them more than the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing.

Btw- it's not just kids buying the Wii. It's a lot of 20/30/40 year olds with their own money (And lots of it) buying the system. That's a good group to have in your pocket.

 

[MinusTheBear]

I should have clarified- I was speaking of Wii technology. We both agree that it was clearly outdated long before it was released.

Do I think it's a certainty that Nintendo's strategy is successful over the long run? Definitely not, but I don't think anybody saw the Wii being even half as successful as it was. The console has sold over 22 million units worldwide- and people are still clamoring for the units! If this were some start-up then I would totally agree that this was a fad- but Nintendo has remained relevant in the video game world since the late 1970s. I give them more than the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing.

Btw- it's not just kids buying the Wii. It's a lot of 20/30/40 year olds with their own money (And lots of it) buying the system. That's a good group to have in your pocket.

There is no question on the success of the Wii, their worldwide sales are quite astonishing. I forgot to mention in my previous post is the Wii's lack of 3rd party support. I think 3rd party support is becoming more prominent and ever more important in todays industry. They have something different to offer this generation but in a couple of years I do not know what they can do differently than what MS and Sony is doing now.