Blu-ray's Field of Dreams

[admin]

There are two ways to get people to buy your product - offer something innovative and groundbreaking or sell cheap. According to TGDaily, the Blu-ray Disc Association missed that day in marketing school. According to Andy Parsons, the Chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, prices aren't going to decline any time soon. To blame... YOU for not buying enough.


Discuss "Blu-ray's Field of Dreams" here. Read the article.

[armaraas]

I read that earlier today and wondered the heck that guy was smoking.
If you want to sell more, lower your prices- it's not that hard to understand. I bought a ps3 recently, I figure if blu-ray isn't doing so hot in a few years I'll just tell everyone I bought it for the games...

And so far I have yet to buy a blu-ray movie. I'm tempted, but locally most of the movies are $20 or more even on sale, and I have a hard time paying that much for one movie anymore. I have a subscription to blockbuster online, so I'm just renting for now (assuming bb will raise their monthly price eventually for br's, they're already shipping slower now that I selected br as my default format).

[FirstReflection]

Don't forget, these executives are the same people who believe that a person earning $100,000 a year as an individual is representative of "lower middle class".

They are so completely out of touch that they believe $600 for a player and $30 for a single disc ought to be considered "cheap" by the buying public.

[BMXTRIX]

Everytime I read an outtake from the statement it screams that people who write commentaries on websites are clueless.

The BDA had a projected growth from 2% revenue share of optical discs, to 8% revenue during 2008. With 3 months to go, and the busiest selling season coming up, they are currently selling about 6% of total revenue for opitical discs, representing a three fold growth, and target numbers which are dead on, if not ahead of schedule by years end.

The BDA is following the path of technologies before it, and is following a growth pattern which is also consistent.

Tom, I'm afraid we aren't seeing prices drop because the consumers are in fact buying what is out there at the prices they are currently at. They are doing so in numbers which don't touch DVD, but are consistent with the growth of the product which they wish to achieve.

This may shock many, but the article is specific, and it does not blame consumers. It says that there aren't enough players out there yet to really bring prices down, but it is not at all saying that at current prices, Blu-ray isn't selling. It also doesn't say that the BDA or CEs are upset with the way BD players are currently selling.

Economics 101 says that when you have a product in limited quantity, that you want to maximize profits on, you do so at the highest possible price the market will support at that time.

Guess what? The BDA isn't forcing anyone to buy, but people are still buying and the product has seen triple digit growth in 2008, in line with forcasts.

We (consumers) can complain if we want, but those are the same complains that went along with DVD at the same point of the DVD life cycle.

Surely some people can actually read this quote and see that is EXACTLY what was said and implied:

Parsons was speaking as part of a panel on high-definition formats and told the audience that Blu-ray hardware and disc prices are behaving the same as when DVD players were first getting popular. “There’s not enough market [volume] to lower the price,” Parsons said, adding that companies have to build “awareness and demand for the technology," before prices can decrease.

From: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/39347/97/

Note: That quote is still partial instead of a complete text, in proper context, for what was said. Also, it was said at an INDUSTRY convention, where there is a vested interest in keeping player & software prices high so profits are maximized.

Don't get me wrong, but 2 years ago, it was $1,000 for a Blu-ray player that was 1.0 and incredibly slow. Now the $230 player may be considered 'off brand' but it is also getting pretty decent feedback overall compared to the very first players...

http://reviews.cnet.com/video-player...?tag=mncol;lst

So, for 1/4 the price of 2 years ago, I can get better performance? Isn't that 'prices dropping'?

Yes, discs are still high, but sales are out there, and I don't have an issue paying $5 or $10 more for a movie that has stellar video and audio - at this time. Keep in mind I only buy 5-10 movies a year typically, which is WAY more than the average DVD consumer purchases.

I think that some people are hot to dis' Blu-ray instead of actually making themselves knowledgable about what expectations were, what the current sales levels are, and what we will likely see in the next few months for sales.

Do I want prices to drop? Of course I do! But, do I expect them to before Blu-ray hits 20% or so of optical disc revenues and guarantees about 1,000,000 discs sold on every major film? Nope, I don't forsee that for at least a year. Next holiday season? Yes, I see some sales and maybe a 20% price drop or more on software.

[jliedeka]

I'm not so much concerned about the price of the players. I'd rather pay more for quality but I want to be sure I'm buying something that won't be obsolete in a year or two. (If I had any interest in any games for the PS3 I'd probably buy one and wait for something better to come along.)

My real objection is to the price of the media. I probably own around 300 DVDs and the vast majority were $15 or less. The only times I've spent more than $20 on a disc was because it was something from Criterion or something I really wanted.

Since I've never seen or heard a BD, I'm okay with my upscaled DVDs. I can get a lot more DVDs for a C-note than BDs.

Maybe there is something to the economy of scale. SACDs are pretty much a niche format now but they are not double the price of CDs, usually. Since SACDs use DVD media, there are probably more stampers running for them. If demand picks up, maybe there will be more stampers running for BDs. I wish they would try to grow the market faster so the media prices would come down.

Jim

[jostenmeat]

Jim, as long as you are no longer buying DVDs, Id say that's cool, b/c then IMO you aren't wasting your money. The difference is pretty huge, IMO. So much so, I haven't watched a DVD since last year.

I only have, guessing, 30 DVDs. I think not a single one was bought new, but all as used. However, I have no problem at all paying $20 for a new BD.

Never having a heard a true SACD or DVDA (only hybrid SACD once or twice, I think perhaps Mahler sym 7 and Monk's Brilliant Corners), it wouldn't surprise me if the difference between BD: DVD was much greater than CD:SACD.

If you're not concerned about the price of the player, you could always rent, right? Perhaps check out an Insignia player from BB, and if its not worth it, you can return it. I have a strong feeling you would keep it though.

[Sus Ano]

I have browsed here a few times but I felt I had to sign up to respond to this editorial.

A quick check of the Audioholics homepage finds ads for emotiva, dayton, and axiom. The featured reviews at the top of the page are for the Oppo 983 and the Yamaha Soavo-1.

I guess I have to ask where are the editorials arguing that "John Q. Public needs to be convinced their $40 speakers, $25 dvd players, and built in amplifiers are not good enough"?

Doesn't it seem a little odd for this website to be arguing that unless a product instantly appeals to J6P it is doomed? Isn't part of the reason for Audioholics to look at products that might cost more but offer an increase in quality? Why are a $1700 pair of Salk SongTower seen as offering good value and performance - are they innovative and groundbreaking because they sure aren't cheap. And if Salks (or any of the other high end products reviewed and featured on this site) are not innovative, groundbreaking or cheap maybe there are MORE than two ways to sell products...

I could be wrong but it seems like a number of editors on this website seem to hold blu-ray to a strangely inconsistent standard. Maybe they want blu-ray to be HUGELY successful (almost instantly) and see their comments as constructive criticism. Maybe the idea of blu-ray succeeding kinda irritates them. But for a website that recommends a LOT of higher end products that John Q Public isn't going to buy and can't afford to suggest higher prices at this point mean blu-ray is going "hurry up and wait to die" just seems strange.

[FirstReflection]

Good points, Sus Ano.

I wouldn't presume to be able to speak on behalf of the editors, but my own feelings may, perhaps, echo some of theirs, so I will share my own feelings as they may shed some light on the subject.

As a home theater enthusiast, the one thing that bothers me more than anything is that, despite the fact that I have such a strong interest in this industry, I essentially have extremely little influence upon it. As a collective, the most loyal, knowledgable and interested people wind up representing only a tiny percentage of the market as a whole.

In a nut shell, we - the A/V enthusiats and Audioholics - we want high quality! Here, we have this fantastic product: Blu-ray. But no matter how much we love it, no matter how much we buy it, we still represent only a tiny percentage of people and thus, we could lose this cherished format simply because "Joe six pack" aka "the mass market" doesn't care and doesn't adopt it.

When it comes to something like an entire format for distributing content, it absolutely HAS to be ubiquitous to survive. We've been subjected to LaserDisc, D-VHS, SACD, DVD-Audio, etc. All formats that were the peak of quality at their time, but utterly failed because the mass market did not care and did not buy them. The enthusiasts LOVED those formats. We bought them. We cared deeply, spent our money, trumpeted their virtues, but all to no avail.

Saying "Blu-ray is going to fail" is, perhaps, the enthusiasts cynical way of anticipating disappointment. Here, yet again, is a wonderful format. In fact, the best format we have ever seen and heard and been able to buy and use in our homes. But history has proven already that no matter how much we, the enthusiasts buy, no matter how much we care and champion the format, it all counts for naught if the mass market does not get on board!

[dobyblue]

I have browsed here a few times but I felt I had to sign up to respond to this editorial.

A quick check of the Audioholics homepage finds ads for emotiva, dayton, and axiom. The featured reviews at the top of the page are for the Oppo 983 and the Yamaha Soavo-1.

I guess I have to ask where are the editorials arguing that "John Q. Public needs to be convinced their $40 speakers, $25 dvd players, and built in amplifiers are not good enough"?

Doesn't it seem a little odd for this website to be arguing that unless a product instantly appeals to J6P it is doomed? Isn't part of the reason for Audioholics to look at products that might cost more but offer an increase in quality? Why are a $1700 pair of Salk SongTower seen as offering good value and performance - are they innovative and groundbreaking because they sure aren't cheap. And if Salks (or any of the other high end products reviewed and featured on this site) are not innovative, groundbreaking or cheap maybe there are MORE than two ways to sell products...

I could be wrong but it seems like a number of editors on this website seem to hold blu-ray to a strangely inconsistent standard. Maybe they want blu-ray to be HUGELY successful (almost instantly) and see their comments as constructive criticism. Maybe the idea of blu-ray succeeding kinda irritates them. But for a website that recommends a LOT of higher end products that John Q Public isn't going to buy and can't afford to suggest higher prices at this point mean blu-ray is going "hurry up and wait to die" just seems strange.

Bingo! You hit the nail on the head. Excellent post and great points. The majority of editorials in this section of the forum that do not come from forum members have baffled me for over two years now.

The longer Blu-ray stays around and shows continued growth where DVD is slowly seeing lowered sales the more the "tech experts" and analysts look like fools.

[Clint DeBoer]

I could be wrong but it seems like a number of editors on this website seem to hold blu-ray to a strangely inconsistent standard. Maybe they want blu-ray to be HUGELY successful (almost instantly) and see their comments as constructive criticism. Maybe the idea of blu-ray succeeding kinda irritates them. But for a website that recommends a LOT of higher end products that John Q Public isn't going to buy and can't afford to suggest higher prices at this point mean blu-ray is going "hurry up and wait to die" just seems strange.

I don't think that's the case at all. If anything we see ways the industry could be wildly successful but continue to shoot themselves in the foot... over and over...

As for these News & Editorial articles - it's always the same thing. Any time we report and comment on the news it's construed by the BD crowd (who flock here from various BD forums, check some of the posts counts) that we hate BD simply by the fact that we even discuss a topic/article critical of the format.

We love BD - period. We just have some observations and like to report on news that surrounds the format when it comes up - good or bad. The BDA has enough sycophants, it doesn't need one more.