Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[highfigh]

I think the offramp exists right now. He could pull out of Ukraine today, if he wanted to. Impeding an offramp might be to give Ukraine equipment enabling significant attacks on Russian territory, such as long-range missiles. That might steel Russian nerve and make them feel that they must continue on the current path.

Despite the crimes he is clearly guilty of, I'd allow him to survive if it meant he would give up on this insanity. It's quite apparent that the morale amongst Russian forces is pretty poor. It just hasn't reached WW1 proportions, where there were large-scale mutinies.

But, thinking that he could pull over/off is ignoring his personality and the way he operates.

Anyone who plays Chicken with him does it at their peril.

What we need is to put someone up against Putin who's crazier- nobody wants to fight a crazy person.

 

[Mojo Navigator]

A random thought about Bakhmut. Perhaps the Ukrainians are getting advice from the Mayor of Kyiv, former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Klitschko. Remember the old "rope a dope" strategy of Muhammed Ali ?

When you are against a bigger and stronger opponent, first wear them out before knocking them out.

Bakhmut has been a huge drain on Russian troops, equipment and morale. Defenses lose far fewer soldiers than the offensive. Ukraine has estimated the kill ratio to around 1 to 7 or 10. This drains Russian resources from other areas of the conflict zone. They are exploiting Putin's desperation for a "battlefield victory" to weaken and demoralize the Russian military. This may prevent the Russians from preparing an effective Spring offensive. Urban warfare always favors the defenders and is very costly for the invaders. An army can advance farther and faster over open ground.

So tactically, I can see a lot of advantages for the Ukrainians in Bakhmut.

 

[Trell]

What goes around comes around, including naming.

Zelensky instructs PM to explore possibility of renaming Russia into ‘Muscovy’

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has considered an e-petition to rename Russia into ‘Muscovy’ in the Ukrainian language and instructed the country’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal to “explore this possibility”. The petition in question was posted on 23 November 2022 and was signed by 25,000...

novayagazeta.eu

>>>Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has considered an e-petition to rename Russia into ‘Muscovy’ in the Ukrainian language and instructed the country’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal to “explore this possibility”.
The petition in question was posted on 23 November 2022 and was signed by 25,000 individuals, enough to be considered by the president. It also suggests that the word “Russian” be replaced with “Muscovian”, and the “Russian Federation” to be referred to as “the Moscow Federation”.

The creator of the petition believes that the historic name for Russia is Muscovy, the word that was used in maps between the 16th and 19th centuries.

“The issue mentioned in the petition requires thorough elaboration both in terms of historic and cultural context and considering potential consequences in international law. Considering this, I addressed the Ukrainian prime minister and asked him to use a complex approach and explore such a possibility,” Zelensky said.

He also suggested that the academia be involved to resolve the matter.

Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, referred to Zelensky’s actions as “additional evidence of attempted transforming of Ukraine into anti-Russia”.<<<

 

[highfigh]

What goes around comes around, including naming.

Zelensky instructs PM to explore possibility of renaming Russia into ‘Muscovy’

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has considered an e-petition to rename Russia into ‘Muscovy’ in the Ukrainian language and instructed the country’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal to “explore this possibility”. The petition in question was posted on 23 November 2022 and was signed by 25,000...

novayagazeta.eu

>>>Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has considered an e-petition to rename Russia into ‘Muscovy’ in the Ukrainian language and instructed the country’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal to “explore this possibility”.
The petition in question was posted on 23 November 2022 and was signed by 25,000 individuals, enough to be considered by the president. It also suggests that the word “Russian” be replaced with “Muscovian”, and the “Russian Federation” to be referred to as “the Moscow Federation”.

The creator of the petition believes that the historic name for Russia is Muscovy, the word that was used in maps between the 16th and 19th centuries.

“The issue mentioned in the petition requires thorough elaboration both in terms of historic and cultural context and considering potential consequences in international law. Considering this, I addressed the Ukrainian prime minister and asked him to use a complex approach and explore such a possibility,” Zelensky said.

He also suggested that the academia be involved to resolve the matter.

Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, referred to Zelensky’s actions as “additional evidence of attempted transforming of Ukraine into anti-Russia”.<<<

Gee, I can't think of any reason Ukraine might be anti-Russia......not being anti-Russia would be similar to someone wanting to be friends with the guy who kicks the crap out of them in school.

And Putin says Ukraine started this.....

 

[mtrycrafts]

Gee, I can't think of any reason Ukraine might be anti-Russia......not being anti-Russia would be similar to someone wanting to be friends with the guy who kicks the crap out of them in school.

And Putin says Ukraine started this.....

They did. Became independent again when the USSR went belly up in 1989. How dare they. Putin should go after all the blocks it lost in 1989 and keep on marching to London.

 

[highfigh]

They did. Became independent again when the USSR went belly up in 1989. How dare they. Putin should go after all the blocks it lost in 1989 and keep on marching to London.

The other Communist Block countries ran away, too- I realize that Ukraine was actually part of Russia, but the Eastern half of Poland was too, so this is different?

 

[Mr._Clark]

This is annoying. Rather than giving them to Ukraine, Switzerland is destroying air defense missile systems, armored personnel carriers, and artillery systems.

>>>Peter Schneider, former Editor-in-Chief of the Allgemeine Schweizerische Militaerzeitschrift (ASMZ), stressed that this armament was old but still operational. The United Kingdom used this system to defend the 2012 Olympic Games in London.

“They can be very well used against low-altitude targets such as drones. Repair SAMs could also be used against fighter jets or helicopters,” he added.

Schneider also emphasized that Ukraine could use these weapons to combat drones and protect critical infrastructure. . . .

In addition to the Rapier systems that are now being disposed of, Switzerland will decommission M113 armored personnel carriers and more than 100 M109 artillery systems.<<<

Switzerland disposes of its Rapier SAMs

The Swiss Army decommissioned and is disposing of Rapier air defense systems. The first part of the units was already dismantled

mil.in.ua

 

[GO-NAD!]

Vladimir Putin is much more broke than we think | Financial Times (ft.com)

 

[GO-NAD!]

The Russian Army Is Running Out Of T-72 Tanks—And Quickly (forbes.com)

 

[GO-NAD!]

I think he'll be sticking close to home for the time being...

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine | CBC News

A spokesperson for Russia's foreign ministry said the arrest warrant against Putin had "no significance whatsoever."

No significance if he never plans to travel to a western country again.

Oh, I forgot. He should be able to travel to the US, since they refused to be party to the ICC.

 

[Mr._Clark]

According to this article the most recent round of support to Ukraine is a "last-ditch effort" because Ukraine is burning through artillery rounds and rockets faster than the West can make them.

This is not exactly a cheerful assessment of the situation.

>>>With so much riding on a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the United States and Britain are preparing to ship thousands of NATO and Soviet-type artillery rounds and rockets to help shore up supplies for a coming Ukrainian offensive.

But a senior American defense official described that as a “last-ditch effort” because Ukraine’s allies do not have enough ammunition to keep up with Ukraine’s pace and their stocks are critically low. Western manufacturers are ramping up production, but it will take many months for new supplies to begin meeting demand.

This has put Kyiv in an increasingly perilous position: Its troops are likely to have one meaningful opportunity this year to go on the offensive, push back Russian forces and retake land that was occupied after the invasion began last year. And they will probably have do it while contending with persistent ammunition shortages.<<<

Ukraine Burns Through Ammunition in Bakhmut, Putting Future Fights at Risk (Published 2023)

The military is using thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold the eastern city, which could jeopardize a planned springtime campaign.

www.nytimes.com

On the other hand, there have also been numerous reports suggesting that Russia is using it's munitions faster than it can manufacture more.

>>>Russian forces in Ukraine are burning through ammunition faster than the country’s defense industry can replace it, U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines said Saturday.

Russia is using up ammunition “quite quickly,” prompting Moscow to look to other countries for help, including North Korea, Haines told NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell at a panel at the Reagan Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.

Asked how fast Russia was using up ammunition, Haines said: “I don’t think I can give you precise numbers in this forum. But quite quickly. I mean, it’s really pretty extraordinary.”

She added: “And our own sense is that they are not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.<<<

U.S. intel chief says Russia is using up ammunition in Ukraine faster than it can replace it

Russia is using up ammunition "quite quickly," prompting Moscow to look to other countries for help, including North Korea, U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines said.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Trell]

Good news.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643593499743248384

 

[Trell]

A Russian war blogger learns the hard way why a Swedish rocket launcher has a handle in the front.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1644677663024455681

 

[Mr._Clark]

The NY Times ran an article about the leaked U.S. intelligence documents. The U.S. was apparently able to gather a great deal of information from inside the Russian government and military.

Pro-Russian mil bloggers have asserted that the documents are pure fiction, nothing more than disinformation. Although some documents have undoubtedly been altered, it seems unlikely that all of them are 100% fiction.

The problem, of course, is that Russia may be able to track down and plug the leaks. At first glance, internal purging and paranoia within the Russian government and military may seem like a good thing, but I'm not so sure. I doubt there's a way to predict with any certainty what the outcome would (will?) be.

>>>WASHINGTON — A trove of leaked Pentagon documents reveals how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, demonstrating Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and providing an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine.

The documents portray a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself. . . .

The new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive and that the United States is able to warn its allies about Moscow’s future operations. . . . One senior U.S. official called the leak “a massive intelligence breach,” made worse because it lays out to Russia just how deep American intelligence operatives have managed to get into the Russian military apparatus. . . .

The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way. For example, one entry, marked top secret, discusses the Russian General Staff’s plans to counter the tanks NATO countries were providing to Ukraine, including creating different “fire zones” and beginning training of Russian soldiers on the vulnerabilities of different allied tanks. . . .

While the documents were compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, they contain intelligence from many agencies, including the National Security Agency, the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and the Central Intelligence Agency. Some of the material is labeled as having been collected under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, noting that its further distribution is not allowed without the permission of the attorney general.

One section of the documents is categorized as coming from a C.I.A. daily intelligence update. The material in that section reveals not just who the C.I.A. is spying on but some details on how. One intelligence report, for example, demonstrates that the C.I.A. is using intercepted communications to spy on discussions inside the Russian Ministry of Defense.<<< (emphasis added)

Leaked Documents Reveal Depth of U.S. Spy Efforts and Russia’s Military Struggles (Published 2023)

The information, exposed on social media sites, also shows that U.S. intelligence services are eavesdropping on important allies.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

I was watching the video for "Wolf Totem" by The Hu, a Mongolian folk metal band. The lyrics (e.g. "If lions come we'll fight to the end") are apparently based on a Mongolian war chant.

Which made me think:

 

[Trell]

A Russian war blogger learns the hard way why a Swedish rocket launcher has a handle in the front.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1644677663024455681

The above move clip showing at the same time how American soldiers are using a rocket launcher compared to the Russian war blogger who apparently says that NATO weapons are poop:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1645051698220507139

 

[Trell]

The Chinese ambassador to France again shows why the China is not to be trusted as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

>>>France and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are asking Beijing for answers after China’s top envoy to France questioned the independence of former Soviet countries like Ukraine.<<<

Baltics blast China diplomat for questioning sovereignty of ex-Soviet states

Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said that former Soviet countries have no ‘effective status’ in international law.

www.politico.eu

Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don't exist | CNN

European countries are demanding answers from Beijing after its top diplomat in Paris questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet republics, in comments that could undermine China's efforts to be seen as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

This is somewhat interesting. McCarthy shut down a Russian reporter who asked about support for aid to Ukraine.

>>>Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) shot down a Russian reporter’s suggestion that he does not support aid to Ukraine, pledging continued U.S. support for the country and calling on Russia to pull its troops from Ukraine.

“No, I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of the children either,” McCarthy said at a news conference in Israel on Monday.

“And I think for one standpoint, you should pull out. And I don’t think it’s right. And we will continue to support, because the rest of the world sees it just as it is,” McCarthy added.<<<

McCarthy to Russian reporter: ‘I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine’

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) shot down a Russian reporter’s suggestion that he does not support aid to Ukraine, pledging continued U.S. support for the country and calling on Russia to pull it…

thehill.com

 

[isolar8001]

It's a good thing they asked KM and not inbred MTG about support for Ukraine.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Russian Wagner Group leader says his troops will pull out of Ukraine's Bakhmut in days | CBC News

Poor things...my heart breaks for them.