Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
I'm not sure what to make of this letter from the progress wing of Congress to President Biden.

B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf (house.gov)

>>>Your support for the self-defense of an independent, sovereign, and democratic state has been supported by Congress, including through various appropriations of military, economic and humanitarian aid in furtherance of this cause. <<< (italics mine)

This statement seems to imply that their support for further funding is not unconditional and/or never ending. Regardless, the letter seems to be telling Biden how to suck eggs. A negotiated peace? Wow, I bet he never thought of that!

The letter suggests that any negotiated peace has to be acceptable to Ukraine. As I understand it, Ukraine will not cede any territory in the eastern region and will probably demand the return of Crimea. But, Russia will want to see some reward for their investment of lives and treasure. A ceasefire would probably be a precondition for negotiations - which would simply give Russia some breathing room to reinforce/rest/replenish their forces. And, Ukraine would probably demand a withdrawal to pre-invasion borders as a precondition.

They've tossed a dead cat on the table and are just making the situation more difficult for Biden. That said, they aren't as bad as the hard-right wing of the GOP, who would happily throw Ukraine under the bus and not look back.
It looks like they pulled the dead cat off the table. They've apparently had the dead cat for some time and only recently decided to throw it on the table.

>>>Top House progressives backed off their position questioning President Biden’s Ukraine policy on Tuesday afternoon, withdrawing a letter released Monday that perplexed and angered many Democrats.

“The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the caucus chairwoman, wrote in a statement, representing a stunning shift in their call for a diplomatic push to end the Russia-Ukraine war. . .

The Hill reported earlier on Tuesday that the letter was written over the summer and released this week without consideration of the timing, two weeks ahead of midterm elections. <<<


Hopefully they bury it without consulting Stephen King.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
There are quite a few reports and videos of naval drone strikes on Russian ships in Sevastopol. These attacks apparently occurred a few hours ago. As far as I can tell, almost nothing is confirmed right now, but the videos are interesting. The second video is from on a drone that is attacked by a helicopter (assuming the video "real")

 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
Russia says it's pulling out of the grain shipping agreement due to the attacks.

>>>The Russian defense ministry said Moscow was halting participation in the United Nations-brokered agreement after what it said was a Ukrainian attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.<<<

 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
There are quite a few reports and videos of naval drone strikes on Russian ships in Sevastopol. These attacks apparently occurred a few hours ago. As far as I can tell, almost nothing is confirmed right now, but the videos are interesting. The second video is from on a drone that is attacked by a helicopter (assuming the video "real")

You should have warned us that watching may cause seasickness. ;) :D
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
Russia says it's pulling out of the grain shipping agreement due to the attacks.

>>>The Russian defense ministry said Moscow was halting participation in the United Nations-brokered agreement after what it said was a Ukrainian attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.<<<

Oh, now I know the behind story of the news reports unless I missed that part. Interesting.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
I do not know how accurate these numbers are, but there have been reports of between 400-500 Russians killed in action every day for some time now, and reports of over 900 killed in one day on October 30, 2022.

There have also been numerous reports of Wagner troops getting thrown into near suicide attacks on Ukrainian positions, apparently as a way to draw Ukrainian fire so the less expendable Russian troops can locate the Ukrainian forces.

It's hard to see how Russia can continue with this for very long.


The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Putin will continue to grind it out in hopes that Ukraine and the West eventually go wobbly:

>>>This forecast rests on two assessments. First, that Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces. Second, that Putin’s theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe’s will. These assessments offer a series of timelines that support the forecast.<<<

 
Trell

Trell

Audioholic Ninja
I do not know how accurate these numbers are, but there have been reports of between 400-500 Russians killed in action every day for some time now, and reports of over 900 killed in one day on October 30, 2022.
I guess these numbers comes from the daily updates from the Ukrainian army, but how accurate they remains to be seen.

 
M

Mojo Navigator

Audioholic Intern
The Russian Empire never recognized human rights either domestically or outside its borders. This is a historical fact. Their atrocities during WW2 were hidden from the American people by the US government because the Russians were our "ally" against Hitler. From the Russian point of view, human rights are a non-issue. So, pointless to sign any agreement.

The Russian court system has been an unjust system since the Bolshevik movement. They boast a 99% conviction rate. (!)

Czars, dictators and tyrants are the only historical leaders of the Russian Empire. This is what Russian school children learn in history class. There is no precedent in Russian history where there was any concern for their own people or others.

They should be condemned for this behavior but don't expect that to end in your lifetime.

The Ukrainian military deliberately attacked the Russian Black Sea fleet so that Ukraine could resume grain shipments without Russian interference. Also to reduce the number of cruise missiles launched from Russian naval vessels.

Expect Russian casualty figures to skyrocket. This is to be expected but it is an old Russian military tactic. They will not be swayed, only victories matter. No matter how they are accomplished.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Slumlord
The Russian Empire never recognized human rights either domestically or outside its borders. This is a historical fact. Their atrocities during WW2 were hidden from the American people by the US government because the Russians were our "ally" against Hitler. From the Russian point of view, human rights are a non-issue. So, pointless to sign any agreement.

The Russian court system has been an unjust system since the Bolshevik movement. They boast a 99% conviction rate. (!)

Czars, dictators and tyrants are the only historical leaders of the Russian Empire. This is what Russian school children learn in history class. There is no precedent in Russian history where there was any concern for their own people or others.

They should be condemned for this behavior but don't expect that to end in your lifetime.

The Ukrainian military deliberately attacked the Russian Black Sea fleet so that Ukraine could resume grain shipments without Russian interference. Also to reduce the number of cruise missiles launched from Russian naval vessels.

Expect Russian casualty figures to skyrocket. This is to be expected but it is an old Russian military tactic. They will not be swayed, only victories matter. No matter how they are accomplished.
I have seen several videos of Russian officers & soldiers refusing to fight- let's hope this increases and that eventually, they won't be able to find anyone who's willing.
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
Maybe those who refuse should fight those "blocking troops." That might send a message back home?
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
Why would anyone think Putin gives a shyte about the Geneva Convention?
I think the answer is: there would be no reason to think that about Putin.

Having said that, a disclaimer (AKA "my bad") is probably in order. The NEXTA twitter post states "Phosphorus shells are prohibited by the Geneva Convention."

This is not actually correct.

>>>The use of white phosphorus is not outright banned under international weapons law.

It is not illegal for militaries to possess it, and armed forces around the world (including U.S. troops) have said they use it to mark a target or create a smokescreen, according to David E. Johnson, a military expert with the Rand Corp.

But like all weapons, it is illegal to use against civilian targets, and the use of air-dropped incendiary weapons in populated areas is prohibited under Protocol III, Johnson said.

“Going after civilian targets indiscriminately is the biggest war crime there is, no matter what the weapon,” he said.<<<

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/what-is-phosphorus-bomb-russia-ukraine-rcna21371

Here's a blog post that goes into more detail.

>>>White phosphorus munitions are per se a lawful weapon that can be used against the enemy consistent with the normal laws of targeting. However, white phosphorus munitions, like any lawful weapon, can be used in numerous unlawful manners, such as to specifically target civilians or launch attacks indiscriminately. Focusing on the weapon, and not how it is being used, muddies the law and facts surrounding the circumstances in which a war crime may have occurred.<<< (emphasis added)


The lawfare blog post states that >>>White phosphorus is often incorrectly labeled as an “incendiary weapon” or a “chemical weapon.” Under the LOAC, it is legally neither.<<<

I'm not sure that this assertion is settled law. Either way, there have been reports of Russians using actual incendiary munitions in Ukraine:

>>>Despite some reporting to the contrary, the 9M22S does not deliver a white phosphorous payload. In fact, white phosphorous—whilst available in ‘unitary’ format munitions for incendiary use and sometimes used as an ignition source in some incendiary munitions due to its pyrophoric characteristics, is most often used for marking and screening purposes, dues to the large volume of dense, white smoke it can quickly produce. Magnesium- and thermite-based incendiary munitions, by contrast, are most often used to ignite fires in areas such as fuel depots, ammunition storage sites, and other flammable military targets.<<<


It's not clear to me if the NEXTA video shows WP or some other incendiary munitions.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Russians are committing war crimes by targeting civilians and/or launching attacks indiscriminately, but it's not accurate to say that phosphorus shells, by themselves, are prohibited by the Geneva Convention.
 
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mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
...

But like all weapons, it is illegal to use against civilian targets, and the use of air-dropped incendiary weapons in populated areas is prohibited under Protocol III, Johnson said.

“Going after civilian targets indiscriminately is the biggest war crime there is, no matter what the weapon,” he said.<<<

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/what-is-phosphorus-bomb-russia-ukraine-rcna21371

....
And that is what is shown in that video/picture, air dropped that is scattered for max effect.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Slumlord
I think the answer is: there would be no reason to think that about Putin.

Having said that, a disclaimer (AKA "my bad") is probably in order. The NEXTA twitter post states "Phosphorus shells are prohibited by the Geneva Convention."

This is not actually correct.

>>>The use of white phosphorus is not outright banned under international weapons law.

It is not illegal for militaries to possess it, and armed forces around the world (including U.S. troops) have said they use it to mark a target or create a smokescreen, according to David E. Johnson, a military expert with the Rand Corp.

But like all weapons, it is illegal to use against civilian targets, and the use of air-dropped incendiary weapons in populated areas is prohibited under Protocol III, Johnson said.

“Going after civilian targets indiscriminately is the biggest war crime there is, no matter what the weapon,” he said.<<<

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/what-is-phosphorus-bomb-russia-ukraine-rcna21371

Here's a blog post that goes into more detail.

>>>White phosphorus munitions are per se a lawful weapon that can be used against the enemy consistent with the normal laws of targeting. However, white phosphorus munitions, like any lawful weapon, can be used in numerous unlawful manners, such as to specifically target civilians or launch attacks indiscriminately. Focusing on the weapon, and not how it is being used, muddies the law and facts surrounding the circumstances in which a war crime may have occurred.<<< (emphasis added)


The lawfare blog post states that >>>White phosphorus is often incorrectly labeled as an “incendiary weapon” or a “chemical weapon.” Under the LOAC, it is legally neither.<<<

I'm not sure that this assertion is settled law. Either way, there have been reports of Russians using actual incendiary munitions in Ukraine:

>>>Despite some reporting to the contrary, the 9M22S does not deliver a white phosphorous payload. In fact, white phosphorous—whilst available in ‘unitary’ format munitions for incendiary use and sometimes used as an ignition source in some incendiary munitions due to its pyrophoric characteristics, is most often used for marking and screening purposes, dues to the large volume of dense, white smoke it can quickly produce. Magnesium- and thermite-based incendiary munitions, by contrast, are most often used to ignite fires in areas such as fuel depots, ammunition storage sites, and other flammable military targets.<<<


It's not clear to me if the NEXTA video shows WP or some other incendiary munitions.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Russians are committing war crimes by targeting civilians and/or launching attacks indiscriminately, but it's not accurate to say that phosphorus shells, by themselves, are prohibited by the Geneva Convention.
And we should just accept their saying "Oopsie" if the Phosphoris is used against civilians or as a weapon?
 
Trell

Trell

Audioholic Ninja
And we should just accept their saying "Oopsie" if the Phosphoris is used against civilians or as a weapon?
No, of course not, but evidence has to be collected to prove Russian war crimes in use of Phosphorus.

In general the Ukrainians are collecting evidence of Russian war crimes.
 
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