Toshiba and Sony Fail to Unify Hi-Definition DVD Format

[Audioholics]

<A href="http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/unifiedhighdefinitionDVD.php"><IMG style="WIDTH: 100px; HEIGHT: 100px" alt=[HDDVD] hspace=10 src="http://www.audioholics.com/news/thumbs/HDDVD_th.jpg" align=left border=0></A>Plans for a "one format to rule them all" unified high definition format seems to now be officially scrapped after Corp. and Toshiba Corp. failed to reach agreement in their negotiations on a standard format, it was&nbsp;reported today by the Daily Yomiuri Online.

Since the companies could not seem to come to an agreement, there will be two distinct and incompatible high definition DVD formats on the market and there is hardly enough time for the two companies to get together once again and forumlate a last ditch effort on unification.

[Read the Article]

 

[Takeereasy]

Isn't Toshiba ready to launch at a very near date? HDDVD will beat blueray to the punch but the first player is going to be about a grand US, and the first Bluerays are going to cost more than that. IMO all of these companies missed the boat big time. I know that they invested a lot in research and development but a format war is not going to be well received by consumers. If Blueray fails and HDDVD is adopted then Sony is in some real trouble with regards to the PS3. You think they'd have learned their lesson about sharing with SACD, Minidiscs etc but the recent success of Betamax must have gone to their head.

 

[Tsunamii]

"I know that they invested a lot in research and development but a format war is not going to be well received by consumers"
IMHO, you are right on target. This will only accomplish weak sales on both. Most consumers, after hearing of the "format war" will simply not buy one and wait it out. Not to mention that even the Movie studios can't pick one, ill stick with old DVD until the magic 8 ball is a bit clearer.

 

[newfmp3]

success of beta max...cute .. lol

To be honest, I'm already sick of it all. Not to mention the rumors of the copyright nonsense they are trying to incorporate into the new formats. There's a link on the audioholics main page to an article that pretty much sums up my feelings on it all.

I'm hoping to the two of them fail really and someone else comes along and kicks both their buts. Sony, and I was a huge Sony fan, has been too stubborn on a few things over the past few years so I would love to see them learn a lesson or two. Jeeesh, the memory stick was bad enough wasn't it?

Toshiba has been on the rise in several area's lately, but I don't really like how either camp is being pig headed about all of this. I do tend to favor Toshiba a little more though.

My suggestion,is to use piracy to their advantage. Think about it. One of them releases a PC writtable version of their drives for a reasonable price,and of course affordable blank media. Even for legit reasons the possibilites are endless. once they get a foothold, I don't think they can lose. But it's almost too late now really and they should have done this long ago.

Regardless, I'm not buying any dvd player, hd dvd player or blu ray until the dust settles.

 

[Duffinator]

I'm hoping to the two of them fail really and someone else comes along and kicks both their buts. Sony, and I was a huge Sony fan, has been too stubborn on a few things over the past few years so I would love to see them learn a lesson or two. Jeeesh, the memory stick was bad enough wasn't it?

Agreed. Sony's been resting on their Trinitron laurels for three decades now, wake up Sony! All you have to do is look at their financial performance in recent years to understand why they think they absolutely must win this war. But both companies would be better off financially, and not to mention keeping consumers happy, by having a unified format. The success of DVD has gone to their heads but you would think they would learn from that great success and come to a compromise. Looks like we are all going to lose.

Clint, I think you need to add the word Sony to Corp. in your first sentance.

 

[Takeereasy]

My buddy has a saying that sums up Sony to me. "They take a great product and overengineer it till it sucks." Seems to apply to several of their products. Of course this is the same buddy who swears that any day now mini discs will get the recognition they deserve.

 

[djoxygen]

Here's something to ponder...

It appears that Toshiba will beat Sony to market with HD-DVD, but Sony has the slight advantage in the weight of potential catalog titles. Probably a wash between those factors in the early going. If Toshiba can get Microsoft to put HD-DVD drives in the Xbox 360, it could be a major coup, but if MSFT sticks with current DVD drives, Sony will have a major advantage in market penetration when the PS3 hits in early 2006. Especially if HD-DVD hardware is priced at the $1000 level.

We have already seen (with PS and PS2) that Sony is willing to take a loss on hardware and make it up on software licensing. With the potential revenue stream of Blu-Ray movies, they can potentially take an even bigger loss up front on the PS3 to gain market share for Blu-Ray.

Now here's the punch line: Toshiba is one of the development partners (along with IBM and Sony) for the Cell processor that will be used in the PS3.

Is Toshiba putting a nail in its own coffin by helping develop Blu-Ray's not-so-secret weapon? They have already stated that they plan to use the Cell in their own consumer products – HDTVs, certainly, and maybe HD-DVD hardware as well. They certainly stand to gain from the technology whether or not HD-DVD is the eventual winner of the coming format war.

Are they hedging their bets? It would appear so. Looking at the timeline, Blu-Ray was (as Advanced Optical Disc) announced to the industry a few months before HD-DVD. Knowing how long it takes to get a new processor design from drawing board to production, I would guess that the Cell group was working (even if it wasn't publicized) before Sony announced it was developing AOD/Blu-Ray.

Now what would the motivation be for Toshiba to announce a competing HD format after Sony's was public and Tosh was already helping develop the hardware to deliver it.

But more puzzling to me than that is how, on the one hand, Sony and Toshiba have been working together for years on the Cell, but on the other they can't manage to have more than a couple meetings and a lot of harsh words on unifying Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

Perhaps it's all a big publicity stunt to keep us buying DVD software and hardware. If we knew there was a unified format hitting the market this holiday season, we probably would all stop buying DVDs right about 3 months ago. We have now seen the HD-DVD-supporting studios backing away from the more aggressive release schedules they had originally laid out for the format launch.

Based on all this, here are my predictions:

1) There will be no HD optical disc formats available during the 2005 holiday season.

2) We will see the unification we all are hoping for, but the announcement won't come until sometime between 01-Jan-2006 and the PS3 ship date. The unified format will be Blu-Ray.

3) The initial Xbox 360 release will be based on DVD. Xbox 360 v2 will have a Blu-Ray drive.

 

[djoxygen]

Isn't Toshiba ready to launch at a very near date? HDDVD will beat blueray to the punch but the first player is going to be about a grand US, and the first Bluerays are going to cost more than that. IMO all of these companies missed the boat big time. I know that they invested a lot in research and development but a format war is not going to be well received by consumers. If Blueray fails and HDDVD is adopted then Sony is in some real trouble with regards to the PS3. You think they'd have learned their lesson about sharing with SACD, Minidiscs etc but the recent success of Betamax must have gone to their head.

They did learn. They went and bought themselves a record label and a movie studio. When they bought the music back in the '90s, I said to my friends in the music biz, "Sony will not allow a lack of software to sink another one of their formats." Look at the timing with the movies. Blu-Ray is exactly the reason they bought MGM/Columbia/Tri-Star.

"But SACD came after Sony had its own record label," you say. I don't believe it is lack of software that is slowly killing SACD (and DVD-A). The ways most people listen to music most of the time doesn't warrant higher-quality audio, but more convenient audio. Cars (well, most cars) and portable players are not good environments for showing off high-resolution, multi-channel audio. Unlike video, where one is pretty much required to sit still and pay attention (witness the almost non-existent sales of portable video players compared to iPods and other mp3-only players), audio is, for most people, a part of the experience of the rest of their lives, not the primary experience itself.

 

[Takeereasy]

I do like your points Djoxygen. I really hadn't looked at it that way. I guess that they do control a lot of the content about to be released. That is a solid game plan. Also the point about how lower resolution sound is acceptable due to various circumstances is very valid.

My personal prediction is that both technologies will flounder and then merge, but I think a launch from each is inevitable. I also think Sony will take the much bigger hit when the merge does happen. Also how good of an Idea is it to buy movie companies when revenues are declining so quickly in that field? A not so good one IMO. I think that if Sony launches the PS3 with a blueray only capability then they are asking for disaster.

 

[djoxygen]

I think that if Sony launches the PS3 with a blueray only capability then they are asking for disaster.

They have already said that Blu-Ray video players will play existing SD-DVDs. Since PS3 will play PS2 games, many of which are delivered on data DVDs, I think it's a pretty safe bet that PS3 will play video DVDs as well.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I will continue to say, until I hear something new, that the PS3 is the nail in HD-DVD's coffin. We have zero word on PS3 pricing, we have not seen ANY HD players come to market yet.

So, the only thing I have is my opinion that if the PS3 is sold, for a loss, at anything under $500.00 it will be in a million homes overnight. Making it the fastest new technology into a million homes and a very solid reason for all studios to print movie titles in the Blu-Ray format.

I wouldn't even think about buying a stand alone player, but I have no qualms about buying a PS3. Even if the Blu-Ray format fails, the PS3 will still be playing some killer games for years to come.

 

[avnetguy]

I will continue to say, until I hear something new, that the PS3 is the nail in HD-DVD's coffin. We have zero word on PS3 pricing, we have not seen ANY HD players come to market yet.

"If" the PS3 gets out to the masses at a reasonable price it'll definitely boost BR but ....

"If" HD-DVD gets to market first (likely) AND "if" HD-DVD players become affordable quickly (fairly likely) AND "if" profits from HD-DVD movie sales roll in for a few quarters before the PS3 comes out, well, that'll be a bag of nails for the BR coffin.

Steve

 

[Takeereasy]

Well here's another question. Isn't the blue laser both blueray and hddvd use much more expensive than the existing one? Having a drive that will read both conventional DVD's and Blueray will up the cost of the PS3 to the point of pricing it out of the market. I think you make a great point BMXTRIX. If Sony can get this product out at under $500 then they will sell a million overnight (at least). But how can they do that if Toshiba is going to be charging $1000 for just a plain HDDVD player, and supposedly HDDVD will be cheaper than Blueray originally? Sony can't afford to eat $500 on every unit they ship can they? I'm not kidding, can they? Where would they make that back up? $500 is a lot of games.

 

[Audioholics]

"How Many Of You Believe In Psycho-Kinesis? Raise My Hand."

Off-topic: I think this is Steven Wright (or at least he uses this line in his routine)

 

[Takeereasy]

Off-topic: I think this is Steven Wright (or at least he uses this line in his routine)

I just got it as a list of one liners in an email. Sorry to stay off topic.

 

[BMXTRIX]

If Sony can get this product out at under $500 then they will sell a million overnight (at least). But how can they do that if Toshiba is going to be charging $1000 for just a plain HDDVD player, and supposedly HDDVD will be cheaper than Blueray originally? Sony can't afford to eat $500 on every unit they ship can they? I'm not kidding, can they?

I would say that the first HD-DVD players will not be targeted towards a huge audience. So, mass production will be low. The players will in limited supply and quantities. Not a BB/CC item. Remember, manufacturing is more about having the capability to build. If the raw material for Blu-Ray is not a ton more than regular DVD, then the hard part is having the equipment ready to produce the drives and to make the control board chips. Once that, very significant, expense is covered, costs aren't unreasonable.

When you are looking to sell 10,000 HD-DVD players, you MUST charge more to cover those initial costs.

When you are looking to sell 1,000,000 units, and you are willing to take a LOSS on the hardware (Sony is reported to accept a loss), then prices can easily be far lower. If Sony sells at a $100 loss per unit, and stores only mark it up 50 bucks or so... so all profits really are based on selling games and movies... It would be a very wise decision I believe.

Am I positive? Nah - not at all. But, the pricing to gain market domination over both XB360 and HD-DVD is a very serious thing. All eggs = one basket for Sony on this I would have to say.

 

[avnetguy]

I would say that the first HD-DVD players will not be targeted towards a huge audience. So, mass production will be low.

The computer market will greatly speed up the price drop of both HD-DVD and BR when they become available. Not to long ago DVD RW drives for computers were $400 with DVD ROMs in the $150 range and now they are less than $50 and $30 respectively.

I'll probably end up buying both technologies ... just not when they are on the bleeding edge.

Steve

 

[Audioholics]

To me the real issue is going to be software and the act of replacing the DVD as the dominant format.

Years ago DVD got introduced and you could constantly find deals on the software that made it almost the same price as the corresponding VHS title.

Combine this with the rapidly dropping player prices we saw and you had the fast universal adoption everyone enjoyed.

If the new high def DVD formats come out and software is priced akin to video games ($50) then the adoption rates will be very slow indeed - regardless of player costs.

The goal - for me - is to see these high def DVDs REPLACE standard DVDs - and to do that will take some coordination and willingness on the part of content providers and studios (trading some profits for better DRM perhaps?) We shall see...

 

[inmypjs]

I guess Sony never learn. Check out their record...Betamax, DAT, Hi-FD, SDDS, MiniDisc, SACD, Memory Stick and i think the list goes on. They just have the knack of producing everything proprietary even if it is doomed to fail.

 

[avnetguy]

You're right, content prices will definitely play a role in the adoption rate and if the "talk" is right then at least HD-DVD media prices won't add much to it.

I'm sure HD will replace SD [crystal ball off ], its just a matter of time, just as the digital domains (DVD,Tivo,CF) are replacing the analog ones (VHS, Film, etc). The convergance of all the new HD technologies like HDTV, Plasma/DLP/HD TV Sets, HD/BR DVD should give consumers enough of a reason to upgrade ... I hope. As for content providers go, better copy protection will play a key role with HDMI interfaces and new DRM schemes. Of course new copy protection schemes alone might greatly slow down mass acceptance of new technologies.

Steve