THX Chief Scientist Says Blu-ray Is “Too Late”

[StuBru]

After all the uproar about HD DVD and Blu-ray, with Blu-ray claiming the final victory, you have to wonder what exactly the victory consisted of. According to Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX (the high-fidelity sound reproduction standard), “It’s too late for Blu-ray. We don’t really need another spinning format… I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies become available on flash memory.”

I have not bought into any high definition disc system, nor do I plan to. Why not? Well, I never thought it was worth the expense or the hassle. The point that Fincham is making is that Blu-ray is just not enough of a step forward to really get the attention of the market. The transition from VCR tapes to DVDs made a lot of sense, if for no other reason than you can’t skip around a tape (plus they take up lots of space). But the difference between DVDs and Blu-ray discs is nowhere near so dramatic… You can just fit more stuff on ‘em, the functionality isn’t materially changed.

The big deal, of course, is the high def resolution. At the moment, Blu-ray is the way to go if you want to watch a movie in 1080p. The problem, according to Fincham, is that the optical disc is relatively large, fragile, and expensive, and fixed media is definitely on the way out, even now. A dual layer Blu-ray disc holds 50gb of data. Sure, that’s a lot right now, but it won’t be a lot for long, as flash memory prices continue to decrease while capacities increase:

“In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it’s all about having zero inventory. I don’t want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies “By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format.”​

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

Live for TODAY, man.

ENJOY TODAY, not in the FUTURE.

Now, of course, it's just a hobby. It's not a necessity. It's not food/water, shelter/clothing, childcare, etc. It's just a hobby. So if you can't afford blu-ray or any other medium, there is nothing wrong with not having it. It's just entertainment.

But at the same time, there is absolutely NOTHING WRONG with having it.

Blu-ray is a great TOY for NOW.

There is no doubt there will be something better in the FUTURE.

But let's enjoy life NOW whenever we can.

 

[StuBru]

Live for TODAY, man.

ENJOY TODAY, not in the FUTURE.

Now, of course, it's just a hobby. It's not a necessity. It's not food/water, shelter/clothing, childcare, etc. It's just a hobby. So if you can't afford blu-ray or any other medium, there is nothing wrong with not having it. It's just entertainment.

But at the same time, there is absolutely NOTHING WRONG with having it.

Blu-ray is a great TOY for NOW.

There is no doubt there will be something better in the FUTURE.

But let's enjoy life NOW whenever we can.

Haha, I like that positivism of yours.
I was merely posting a news article. Even if Blu-ray were to disappear today, I'd survive.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

Haha, I like that positivism of yours.
I was merely posting a news article. Even if Blu-ray were to disappear today, I'd survive.

Yeah, I don't regreat that I bought the Toshiba HD DVD player either.

I knew there was a reason I don't keep up with most news.

There are always people spreading negativism everywhere.

Just live, love, and enjoy, right?.

 

[mtrycrafts]

... Even if Blu-ray were to disappear today, I'd survive.

And, even if it didn't, you could survive without it

 

[Biggiesized]

After all the uproar about HD DVD and Blu-ray, with Blu-ray claiming the final victory, you have to wonder what exactly the victory consisted of. According to Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX (the high-fidelity sound reproduction standard), “It’s too late for Blu-ray. We don’t really need another spinning format… I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies become available on flash memory.”

I have not bought into any high definition disc system, nor do I plan to. Why not? Well, I never thought it was worth the expense or the hassle. The point that Fincham is making is that Blu-ray is just not enough of a step forward to really get the attention of the market. The transition from VCR tapes to DVDs made a lot of sense, if for no other reason than you can’t skip around a tape (plus they take up lots of space). But the difference between DVDs and Blu-ray discs is nowhere near so dramatic… You can just fit more stuff on ‘em, the functionality isn’t materially changed.

The big deal, of course, is the high def resolution. At the moment, Blu-ray is the way to go if you want to watch a movie in 1080p. The problem, according to Fincham, is that the optical disc is relatively large, fragile, and expensive, and fixed media is definitely on the way out, even now. A dual layer Blu-ray disc holds 50gb of data. Sure, that’s a lot right now, but it won’t be a lot for long, as flash memory prices continue to decrease while capacities increase:

“In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it’s all about having zero inventory. I don’t want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies “By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format.”​

I think you said this more delicately than a lot of other places from where I've read this. Everyone on EngadgetHD was up in arms about these comments, claiming the top THX engineer has no intelligence (no need to comment on that one). But I agree with the way you phrased it. Flash will become more prevalent and widely adopted as prices fall. I believe Corsair is launching 32 GB and 64 GB memory sticks this year.

I never believed that VOD will ever succeed DVD and Blu-ray, but I can see walking into a store some day to download a movie onto portable media. Consumer technology only ever heads in the direction of better, faster, smaller. One day we'll be able to do this in the comfort of our own homes, but not before retail outlets do it first.

 

[Pyrrho]

After all the uproar about HD DVD and Blu-ray, with Blu-ray claiming the final victory, you have to wonder what exactly the victory consisted of. According to Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX (the high-fidelity sound reproduction standard), “It’s too late for Blu-ray. We don’t really need another spinning format… I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies become available on flash memory.”

I have not bought into any high definition disc system, nor do I plan to. Why not? Well, I never thought it was worth the expense or the hassle. The point that Fincham is making is that Blu-ray is just not enough of a step forward to really get the attention of the market. The transition from VCR tapes to DVDs made a lot of sense, if for no other reason than you can’t skip around a tape (plus they take up lots of space). But the difference between DVDs and Blu-ray discs is nowhere near so dramatic… You can just fit more stuff on ‘em, the functionality isn’t materially changed.

The big deal, of course, is the high def resolution. At the moment, Blu-ray is the way to go if you want to watch a movie in 1080p. The problem, according to Fincham, is that the optical disc is relatively large, fragile, and expensive, and fixed media is definitely on the way out, even now. A dual layer Blu-ray disc holds 50gb of data. Sure, that’s a lot right now, but it won’t be a lot for long, as flash memory prices continue to decrease while capacities increase:

“In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it’s all about having zero inventory. I don’t want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies “By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format.”​

It is funny how advocates of downloads talk about the fragility of "hard copies" of things. How many people have lost data in their computers? It is also quite fragile.

One advantage to a physical thing over just a data download is that one can see the packaging, and see what the thing is without first loading it into one's playback device. And it cannot be erased with the push of a button (at least not modern physical copies).

My guess from your quotes is that THX is probably investing in download technology. So, of course, they will want to say that that is the best.

Also, there are serious problems with maintaining control of copyrighted material if it is downloaded rather than a physical thing. The movie studios want to make money, and the easier it is to copy, the worse it is for them. I am sure that they would put some sort of anti-pirating scheme into it, but you can be pretty sure that someone will crack the code before long.

By the way, I am not one of the rabid Blu-Ray lovers; I still have not upgraded beyond DVD. But I expect that, if Oppo releases a Blu-Ray player to the rave reviews they have had for their DVD players, I will probably buy one.

 

[j_garcia]

I think they are OVERestimating the average consumer - spinning disc media will be around for years to come, IMO. Though I have been saying this for a while too, physical media will eventually go away.

 

[jonnythan]

Flash memory will never be a more economical distribution format than some sort of physical media.

Compare the cost of a mass-pressed 50GB BD versus the cost of, say, a 16GB flash card.

 

[Jack Hammer]

I think it would be great if movies came on an SD card. I like the micro SD cards too, but their too tiny. I dropped one the other day and took me 2-1/2 minutes of looking around to find it. With an SD card I could keep my entire library on one small shelf. Storing the movies would become very easy. I think we're still a long way off from that point.

Jack

 

[j_garcia]

I doubt Micro or one of the smaller formats would be the way to go. It would still have to be something fairly large; smaller than a disc, but larger than 1" square I'd guess - for exactly that reason (too easy to lose). The nice thing about flash type memory is no moving parts on the player which in turn means the players could be extremely small also. It isn't more economical right now, but if the industry switched to it or something like it, it could quickly become even cheaper - it is already a commodity. As mentioned, copy protection will be the REAL roadblock.

 

[Dezoris]

I think most everyone knows BluRay will be the last disk based format of its type for movies.

As DefTech stated its the only way to get high def movies on our hi def displays RIGHT NOW.

We are a long ways off from $50 128GB flash drives and even a longer way off to stream 30Mbs AVC or MPEG4 from the internet.

More importantly flash drives even in the high end are incredibly slow for the most part. Moving 40GBs to one of these even in 1-2 years would take several hours.

So if you are a movie enthusiast and want HD we have it via BluRay.

 

[BMXTRIX]

This has been brought up and refuted many times already. The statement itself truly does show a lack of intelligence and understanding of the industry which is amazing coming from anyone that high up at THX, but it ends up being completely irrelevant at the end of the day because Blu-ray is here, is now, and is selling with numbers that are growing, not shrinking.

The issue of technical hurdles with flash, aren't pretty well defined. Size to cost, is an issue. How do you 'buy' movies to own? Is it anything more than a rental format? Why would a 'store' exist in the first place? Why not just 'redbox' style rentals? How do you protect the movies? How do you standardize playback? What players will there be?

Blu-ray, remember, while it had some technical hurdles, had a Japanese predecessor that is years old. It took them YEARS of work to form the BDA, get companies on board, and to standardize the format in a way that studios felt comfortable releasing movies on it. This is the big hurdle, and if they start tomorrow, it is still 5+ years off before the business side of things would likely be in place at a point where an open architecture scheme could exist for flash driven rentals... let alone purchases.

Blu-ray is HD in homes now, and the reality of 3+ million units sold on BD this year alone, up 600% from last years combined sales, is more than just a little bit significant to the direction of the market right now.

It constantly amazes me that people who seem to have no technical knowledge whatsoever, or basis for their statements, are published or put forward as having some meaningful information.

Of course something better will come along, but why flash? Why not just downloads so we can get it all at home? Why not wi-fi devices built into our ipods so you can grab it on the way by when in a store? Why not HVD with 10,000 movies preloaded, and a simple connection to release them for a short period of time?

There's a ton of stuff coming down the road, but the industry is backing Blu-ray right now, and if you want HD on your HDTV, then the path is currently Blu-ray for new movies in the forseeable future.

 

[rgriffin25]

Perhaps he is just another bitter HD DVD owner?? I find it funny how fast some people think technolgy is going to evolve. Granted things in this industry change quite rapidly, but the sales figures on BD are proof that the format is here to stay.

 

[stratman]

Yes the numbers for BD look encouraging, but more needs to be done, namely keep reducing prices and start realeasing hardware that's affordable to the masses. Remember gentlemen, we're in a mild recession now and it looks to deepen, if it does and the bottom really does fall out of the market BD will be in major trouble, but then again so will CE in general.

P.S. There are some signs that are making me feel a bit at ease, the market for expensive homes is still moving fairly briskly, hopefully if the financing fiasco gets sorted in time and consumer confidence jumps a bit, maybe we'll all fare better. A happy, confident consumer is a buying consumer.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Actually, due to production of Blu-ray requiring new lines to be brought on board, there is some concern currently that Blu-ray may not be able to keep pace with this years demand for discs. I have a feeling that if this is the case, we won't be seeing serious decreases in pricing this year.

But, it always happens, so it will be the case with Blu. I just keep my eye out for sales whenever I can.

 

[3db]

Out of curiosity? What is the shelf life of Flash Memory? To me, this medium would be less durable than the Blu Ray its claiming it'll eventually replace. I'm thinking that a static discharge could erase or damage the flash memory. Just a couple of thoughts I had.

 

[joebob]

One thing you can be sure of is that when people try to predict what the future will look like, they tend to get it wrong. It's usually less about what's technically possible and more about what makes economic sense.

I think it the larger screen sizes of today's flat panel displays will drive the blu ray market as prices start falling for the disks and players. For me, the comfort of having the physical media outweighs any disadvantages. I expect this format to last a good 15 to 20 years before there is any serious threat to it's existence. Of course, given my first statement, I could be wrong.

 

[ParkerAudio]

Well, you have to remember that George Lucas' think tanks are either right on the money or way off. I would say they are in the way off camp on this one, along with their belief in Jar Jar Binks and Howard the Duck