It's definitely a popularity contest, but not in the usual sense. The "Academy" (whoever they really are), a bunch of industry insiders, have a curious herd mentality that veers and moves for a while in the weeks leading up to the big show. For a while, it seemed like The Social Network would be crowned "greatest movie ever", then it wasn't but the King's Speech garnered the momentum. One thing that is predictable is that every so often they get into high dudgeon. A movie with a moral, or something classy and British takes the momentum and all of a sudden, a speech is more morally important than Facebook. I find it to all be somewhat amusing since ultimately, the show is about actresses dresses, how much the paid and how close they come to exposing private parts without actually doing it.
