I'm kind of surprised. I'm not usually good at predictions. But this time, the Wii U pretty much turned out to be EXACTLY what I predicted!
The Wii U is Nintendo's way of trying to combat the competition they are seeing in the gaming space from not just Microsoft and Sony, but also Apple. Nintendo has essentially introduced a Wii (the Wii U still uses and is compatible with all of the original Wii's controllers - the Wii Remote w/"Motion Plus" attachment, the Balance Board and the Classic Controller (Pro) ) that can now output HD graphics and 5.1 PCM surround sound. That basically puts them on equal ground with the PS3 + Move and in a comparable place as the Xbox360 + Kinect. But then they've gone the extra step of including a "tablet" that is similar to a small iPad or a very large iPod Touch.
So Nintendo hasn't innovated in any way this time. They've just tried to create a system where no matter what kind of gaming you want to do, the Wii U can do it! You want the latest 1080p shooter that you would normally see on Xbox360? No problem, the Wii U can handle that and you can either use the new "tablet" controller or you can use the Classic Controller Pro to get the same feeling as an Xbox360 controller. You want an HD motion control game, the kind you might see on the PS3 with its Move controller? No problem, the Wii U will use your existing Wii Remote Plus to create that same experience.
What about the newest handheld portable games? Well, so long as you're ok with playing them at home, within the wireless range of the Wii U console, you can put those games on the huge 6.2" screen while the Wii U console provides more processing power than the new PSVita can muster. And if Nintendo is so inclined, they could even put DS games on the Wii U, with your television acting as the top screen and the "tablet" controller acting as the bottom touch screen. If you have a 3D HDTV, Nintendo could even conceivably port 3DS games to the Wii U!
And finally, there's Apple (and Android). Their $0.99 games have put a hurting on the mobile games makers and eaten into the space that Nintendo used to dominate with its GameBoy and DS handhelds. Once again, you'll have to stay within the wireless range of the Wii U console, but it's easy to envision a Nintendo Online Store where you can purchase $0.99 iPhone-style games that you can play on the new "tablet" controller. iPad games should also translate well, and while the "tablet" controller itself doesn't offer any processing power, the Wii U console is still a step ahead of the processing found within the iPad2 or latest Android tablets.
So the Wii U is a way for Nintendo to say, "no matter what kind of games you want to play, the Wii U can play them!" The funny thing is, Microsoft and Sony could both easily copy Nintendo's strategy if it turns out to be a success. Sony could simply use the new PSVita handheld as their "tablet" controller. And Microsoft could ape the same idea by using a Windows Phone 7 device.
Where Nintendo has a slight advantage is in the fact that EVERY Wii U sold will have the "tablet" controller included. Kinect might have sold quite well for Microsoft, but it is still only in about 1/5th or 1/6th of Xbox360 households. The Move has been a failure for Sony and really hasn't sold well. Windows Phone 7 devices barely make a blip in the smartphone market. The point being, peripheral devices never achieve anything close to the same install base as whatever controller is included with the system. If Sony tries to copy the Wii U by using the PSVita, that's a $250 "add-on" to the PS3 or PS4 system. And Windows Phone 7 is going to have to become WAY more popular before anyone is going to shell out for a new smartphone as their new Xbox controller.
So Nintendo has a real shot at success here with the Wii U, IMO. Being able to offer iPad-style games is a big deal, I think. And having that "tablet" controller packed in with every system opens up some cool new methods of interacting with games. Where Nintendo appears to be falling flat once again though is in the online space. And that is what could spell doom for Nintendo. Without an extremely strong online strategy, I personally won't see any value in the Wii U. $0.99 iPad-type games from an online store are an absolute "must", in my book. So too are downloadable games from previous consoles as well as downloadable handheld games. The giant one though is something that can compete with Xbox Live. Some developers have already mentioned that the stupid "friend codes" are gone, replaced with something very similar to a "gamer tag" account - that's certainly a move in the right direction! But if Nintendo wants people to play the next Call of Duty or Madden on the Wii U, they're going to have to offer an online experience that can beat Xbox Live. I just don't see them doing that. Nintendo has ignored the online space for too long for me to believe that they're going to catch up and surpass Xbox Live with their first try.
So once again, I think we'll see developer interest at first, but ultimately, we'll wind up using the Wii U for Nintendo 1st party games and little else. There's no doubt about it, if you want the next Mario, Zelda, Metroid and so on, the Wii U is the only place to find them and they're sure to be great games! They always are. But I'm pretty sure that Nintendo is hoping to gain a few of those "hardcore" gamers back. Looking at the sales of Call of Duty surely has to whet their appetite, as do the sales of iPhone games. I think they have a shot. But trying to be "all things to all people" is never easy. It looks to me as though the Wii U hardware might just be able to pull it off. But without the online component, Nintendo's just going to find themselves in the same situation they've been stuck in since the N64.
